Ask and ye shall receive…

Before we get to the meat of this post, let me explain a little about my methodology. First, I am a follower of a branch of the TINSTAAPP religion. The branch I follow is sort of the Doubting Thomas branch – we do believe in pitching prospects, we just require more proof than others. For example, as excited as I’d like to be about Tyler Herron’s future, I just can’t go all in on him until he’s shown me something above A ball. Second, strikeout rates for pitchers and OBP for hitters are very important to me in evaluating a prospect. Finally, how close a player is to providing value at the major league level is generally a tie-breaker in my rankings. My rankings (with comments) are after the jump.

1. Colby Rasmus – Yes, please. Not much more needs to be discussed with him, but I love that his walk rate remained high and his line drive rate increased last year as he moved up a level.
2. Jaime Garcia – He had a nice bounce back in his K rate last year. I was less concerned with the arm fatigue than others – in fact, I worry a lot about over-extending young pitchers, so I don’t mind the rest (especially since reports are that he’s 100% healthy now).
3. Chris Perez – Did I mention that I am enamored with K rates? If Chris can keep his walk rate down in the 14-16% range, I think we’ve got something special here.
4. Adam Ottavino – I know some don’t like him as much (Keith Law, for example), but I don’t get it. He’s got good size, good stuff, and a good K rate. A minor improvement in his control and I think he would make a decent top 2 starter.
5. Brian Barton – There’s a lot to like here, especially his OBP skills. I worry a little about the drop in his walk rate over the last season and a half, but I would love to see him win the CF job in Spring Training and then be a nice platoon/4th outfielder option once Rasmus comes up in May or June.
6. Bryan Anderson – I am not a big fan of catching prospects unless they have gold glove caliber defensive abilities or have plus power potential. Unfortunately, Anderson has neither. I am in favor of trading him as soon as possible. My father always said that I am a contrarian. (I also hope that I’m wrong about him).
7. Allen Craig – I think Craig is the most intriguing hitting prospect we have after Rasmus. I plan on seeing him in person at some point this year, because I’d like to see how he looks defensively.
8. Tyler Herron – Ok, so my doubts expressed above didn’t really drop him that much. I like everything I see, I’d just like to see more of it.
9. Jason Motte – His K rate at AA last year was insane. Are we sure that isn’t a typo? He struck out 63 in 49 innings – if Chris Perez can’t find his control, Motte might pass him by for the role of “future closer”.
10. Clayton Mortenson – Take what I wrote about Tyler Herron and multiply it by two.
11. Jarrett Hoffspauir – His breakout at AA last year might have been fueled by a .352 BABIP, so I’m trying to temper my enthusiasm a bit. I doubt he’ll ever slug over .500 again, but he’s still a better option than Aaron Miles right now.
12. PJ Walters – Another young pitcher that I like a lot. He performed well at three stops last year and kept his K rate high at each one (a little wobble at AA notwithstanding). I know that Will Carroll says that minor league innings aren’t the same as MLB innings with regards to the Verducci Rule, but I still don’t like the jump in innings some of our young guys took, Walters included (also look at Norrick, who just missed my list).
13. Mitchell Boggs – I was suprised that Keith Law had him #2. I like him, but I’m cautious because his K rate and walk rate both seem to be trending the wrong way.
14. David Freese – He improved his walk rate nicely last season and has a little pop in his bat. Freese vs. Craig for the future at 3B could be an interesting storyline this season.
15. Joe Mather – I really want his half season at AA to be real, but I’m skeptical because his line at AAA looks eerily similar to his previous history. Even so, he could turn out to be a nice 4th outfielder/pinch hitter type.
16. Kyle McClellan – It is apparent from doing this exercise that the strength of the system is in young arms with upside. McClellan falls in line with the rest as having good numbers so far, but I’d like to see an increase in his workload.
17. Kenny Maiques – Count me among the group that would like to see Maiques try his hand at starting in the minors. Even though I’ve already sung the praises of Perez and Motte, I’d like to try and maximize the value of the talent by keeping them in a starting role as long as possible.
18. Jon Jay – I may be over-valuing him here, but I had such high hopes going into last year that I just can’t let it go. His 3.7% walk rate at Palm Beach tempted me to banish him from the list altogether, though.
19. Brad Furnish – He struggled a bit at Palm Beach last year, but it was only 36.2 innings, compared to the sparkling work he put in over 81.2 innings at Quad Cities. If he agrees to come out firing on all cylinders, we’ll agree to just forget those 36.2 innings ever happened.
20. Jess Todd – I have to admit that Todd flew under my radar a bit, but Erik sold me on him with this profile.
21. Peter Kozma – I am trying to have faith that the front office didn’t flush this pick down the toilet, but Kozma’s performance last year didn’t put me at ease. I’m really not down on Kozma as much as I am disappointed about what the pick said to me about the front office philosophy. Hopefully that is changing.
22. Mark Hamilton – If he stays true to form he should mash for the first half of this season at AA and then struggle to hit for power at the next level after a mid-season call up. I would like to see him get a full year at Springfield to see what he does over a season at one level. I see a Steve Balboni or Rob Deer type of upside to him, with more of a Mike Laga type of probability.
23. Mark Worrell – Yes, he is sort of a gimmick pitcher that will probably end up as a matchup righty in middle relief. I still like the guy a lot. He’s a player that I’ve watched for several seasons now and has turned into a personal favorite. I think he could be successful at the major league level right now.
24. Jose Martinez – Jose, on the other hand, is not a personal favorite. The lack of walks just kills him for me.
25. Cody Haerther – I was a bit surprised that Cody is only 24, it seems like he’s been around forever. That could be because somehow he got tied to Travis Hanson in my mind, which always reminds me not to get fooled by a semi-prospect’s career year in the minors. And now I’m having flashbacks to Joe Mather. Ok, even if Joe Mather does equal Travis Hanson, that has nothing to do with Cody Haerther, right? He could still be good, right? He had a nice walk rate coming off of injury last year. He just needs to find a little power this year, in what could be his make-or-break year.

This entry was posted on Sunday, February 17th, 2008 at 9:45 am and is filed under Top 25. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.