As you have probably seen we have started a new feature called College Monday wrap-up. While we have done some profiles, there aren’t many posted yet, and some of you may be wondering which of these names you see on the wrap-up may actually be possibilities for the Cardinals’ first pick in June. That is why we have decided to start the top 15 list. This list is a combination of lists from erik, Picklefork, UncleBuck44, and myself. Our hope is to continue to give updates every few weeks leading up to draft day, and hopefully our list will resemble that of what the Cardinals may actually have and we can give you a good preview of the guy that will ultimately be the pick.
This year the Cardinals have the 13th overall pick, their highest since the disastrous Shaun Boyd selection in 2000. In the early going in this draft season, it seems like there will be much better options available with that 13th selection this year. As you will see there is a nice blend of college arms, sluggers (both college and high school), high school athletes, and high school power arms. At this point we don’t really know who the Cardinals will go after, but we do have a pretty good idea of the names you will hear called in the first half of the first round. Enough with the talk, here’s the list.
1. Pedro Alvarez 3B Vanderbilt
3. Tim Beckham SS Griffin High School (GA)
4. Brian Matusz LHP San Diego
5. Justin Smoak 1B South Carolina
6. Eric Hosmer 1B American Heritage High School (FL)
7. Yonder Alonso 1B Miami (FL)
8. Tim Melville RHP Holt High School (MO)
9. Harold Martinez SS/3B Braddock High School (FL)
10. Kyle Skipworth C Patriot High School (CA)
11. Gerrit Cole RHP Orange Lutheran High School (CA)
12. Tanner Scheppers RHP Fresno State
14. Shooter Hunt RHP Tulane
15. Aaron Hicks CF/RHP Woodrow Wilson High School (CA)
Others receiving votes: Buster Posey C Florida State, Christian Friedrich LHP Eastern Kentucky
Entries (RSS)
What type of pitcher is Tim Melville? Is there any chance he falls to the 13th pick?
Melville is what I like to call Porcello-Lite.
Same build, same athleticism and same easy, pitchability with plus stuff.
I think most will agree that he is the best prep pitcher…
He is big 6’5 or so…filled out pretty well for his age…when I saw him he was consistently in the low 90′s with an easy fastball. Has a hard breaking ball that seems to be above avg and a change.
He has such a pro feel to him when he is on the mound..doesnt seem like he is over throwing very athletic so his motion is easy to repeat.
He could fall to the Cards if his demands get high…but if he progresses like most think…he will be gone by the time the Cards pick.
Dont know if the Cards would take him anyway…they love their college pitching and this year is loaded with it.
he is a very polished pitcher that also has good stuff. he is 6’5″ with a fastball that can touch the mid-90′s although it usually sits around 92-93, he has a killer curve, and a change-up that is also pretty good. the thing that makes him special is he just has a great feel for pitching and very good command for someone his age with his kind of stuff. if you are looking for a young pitcher to compare him to i would probably say phil hughes.
the only way he is around at 13 is if he starts asking for porcello type money.
another thing you have to love about melville is that he has been on the prospect radar since he was a freshman in high school and the pressure hasn’t affected his performance in the least…which speaks to the polish not often found in high school pitchers as noted above…if he somehow fell to 13 and the cardinals didn’t take him it would in my mind be worse than passing on porcello last year considering the hometown factor…the only question that might be bandied about concerning melville is that he didn’t pitch much his sophomore year due to elbow problems…are scouts concerned about arm injuries this early in his career?
although based on his athleticism and hitting ability melville would prob be a corner infield prospect even if he couldn’t pitch
Thanks for the scouting report.
I’d love to see the Cards take a local kid like that, if given the chance.
i agree with you intimidator45, if they passed on melville they would be ripped a whole lot worse than they were for porcello (and that was pretty bad). if a local kid that is that talented falls to you for no other reason than money, and you pass him up just to save a million dollars or so the fans are going to seriously question the direction of your ball club.
are the two beckham shortstops brothers?
nope, no relation. click on the links, i think you will see the difference.
i’m curious to what fgc, pickle or both of you think of ethan martin. from what i hear, he could be good pitching or at 3b. good hitter, powerful bat and can touch 94 on the mound. i considered him on my list personally, he might be 16-20 type guy for me.
I like Martin…I think he is a 3B at the Pro Level…I was a little worried about his swing when I saw him at the Aflac game…looks like he might be a big strikeout guy.
A bunch of potential….I just worry about his swing getting long.
But yea..16 to 20 is probably his range….he is the whole package.
Whoever wrote the MiLB.com scouting report on Aaron Crow needs to go through the clip frame by frame.
Aaron Crow’s problem isn’t the hook in his wrist. It’s his GIGANTIC Inverted L.
Run away…
martin is definitely a talented guy. he seems to be a troy glaus type third base prospect in that he will hit for a ton of power, but won’t hit for much average and will always strike out a lot. however, it seems like now people like baseball america are hyping him more as a pitching prospect b/c of his big time velocity and his ability to hold it deep into games. right now i see him more as a sandwich round guy, and personally i think he is the kind of player that should go to college and find out what he does best. he reminds me a lot of justin bristow when he was coming out of high school. unfortunately bristow never did cut it as a hitter in college, and now he is trying to make the top 5 rounds as a pitcher.
I didn’t get to see Melville pitch last year because he was in the semifinal game rather than the championship game. I was disappointed.
Chris-one of these days you’re gonna have to sit and talk mechanics with us. I’d be interested to pick your brain sometime.
Eric-
I think Chris is woried about the stress that inverted “Ls” and inverted “Ws” put on the shoulder. Wherever you are at try to lift you elbow above your shoulder with your hand hanging below it–then try to raise your hand into throwing position. My shoulder actually pops when I try this. The same movement is a lot more natural if the eblow is below the plane of the shoulders.
If Chris stops back by. What is your take on the wrist curl thing? I tutor pitchers and have had kids that struggle with breaking pitches curl their wrist some. I don’t want them to do anything that doesn’t feel natural, but I think it gets their hand in a better position to throw a curve and the stress doesn’t feel like it is really in a joint–more in the forearm muscles.
-BJM
I’m thinking Ethan Martin’s future may be on the mound. Not only has he flashed a big league heater that has touched 96 but he has shown two pretty good offspeed pitches. And as few mentioned, Martin holds his velocity deep into games.
If he consistently throws strikes, he’d be a much better prospect on the mound and could be a middle of the 1st round pick.
Has anyone seen Jake Odorizzi from Highland, IL pitch? Where would he expected to be drafted? One major drawback is his size (6-1, 175).
“I think Chris is woried about the stress that inverted “Ls” and inverted “Ws” put on the shoulder. Wherever you are at try to lift you elbow above your shoulder with your hand hanging below it–then try to raise your hand into throwing position. My shoulder actually pops when I try this. The same movement is a lot more natural if the eblow is below the plane of the shoulders.”
Correct.
The Inverted L is bad because it tends to make your arm late which makes it externally rotate especially hard and much.
That’s BJ Ryan’s problem (along with miserable timing).
http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/ProfessionalPitcherAnalyses/BJRyan.html
“If Chris stops back by. What is your take on the wrist curl thing? I tutor pitchers and have had kids that struggle with breaking pitches curl their wrist some. I don’t want them to do anything that doesn’t feel natural, but I think it gets their hand in a better position to throw a curve and the stress doesn’t feel like it is really in a joint–more in the forearm muscles.”
I don’t like wrist hooks because they can imply tension which can lead to control (and at the youth level velocity) problems.
However, wrist hooks aren’t automatically bad.
Barry Zito has an Inverted L in his arm action and also hooks his wrist, but his recent velocity problems are due to the Inverted L and not the hook.
the stress doesn’t feel like it is really in a joint–more in the forearm muscles
—————
Functionally, stress in one place leads to stress somewhere else. The muscles are covered with fascia, which extend into the connective tissues that form tendons and ligaments.
All the body’s connective tissues link up, often in surprising ways, which is why an injury to the left heel might produce pain in the right shoulder. Whenever tissue in one place is shortened because of inflammation or scar tissue, it starts a chain reaction that causes other tissues to shorten or lengthen as a way to compensate.
So muscle discomfort — aside from some expected post-workout fatigue and delayed-onset soreness — is just as serious as joint discomfort.
“Functionally, stress in one place leads to stress somewhere else. The muscles are covered with fascia, which extend into the connective tissues that form tendons and ligaments.”
Shoulder problems can often manifest themselves as Biceps Tendonitis. That’s because the Bicep inserts into the shoulder complex.
“I think Chris is woried about the stress that inverted “Ls” and inverted “Ws” put on the shoulder. Wherever you are at try to lift you elbow above your shoulder with your hand hanging below it–then try to raise your hand into throwing position. My shoulder actually pops when I try this. The same movement is a lot more natural if the eblow is below the plane of the shoulders.”
The problem with the Inverted L (ala Chris Carpenter and BJ Ryan) is that it can cause the arm to be late.
“If Chris stops back by. What is your take on the wrist curl thing? I tutor pitchers and have had kids that struggle with breaking pitches curl their wrist some. I don’t want them to do anything that doesn’t feel natural, but I think it gets their hand in a better position to throw a curve and the stress doesn’t feel like it is really in a joint–more in the forearm muscles.”
I don’t like hooked wrists, because they imply tension, but they aren’t always bad.
Zito’s recent velocity problems are more likely due to his Inverted L than to his wrist hook.
What? No Kyle Russell?
I kid. . .I kid!!!!!!!!!!!
I am not too worried about the injury risk associated with a wrist curl. Some kids add a little wrist curl and feels very natural–for some it doesn’t. The kids I teach are going to top out at high school–there careers are only going to be a couple hunderd innings and this is a pretty minor thing
That said, an inverted “L” pitching arm is one of the main things I worry about because it never feels natural. I ask every kid I see that has it in thier motion if it feels natural and have yet to hear one say yes. I think their is this misconception that the a typical throwing motion while you are just playing catch and one while you are pitching are “different”. Most people think that the distance the arm travels while pitching is longer because you are trying to build momentum to “sling” the ball to the plate and don’t realize that momemtum is built in the body and it is a timing issue to tranfer that momentum to the ball. I think that this might be the root of the inverted “L” in history, because it seems to be an indicator of a longer arm motion from the break to the release.
Another thing that people need to realize about mechanics is that maximum performance and maximum longevity are not always the same thing. Some players are more naturally gifted and can package both things, Nolan Ryan comes to mind. But someone like Kerry Wood throws across their body so pronoucely, that it probably puts more torque on his ball to increase performance–but also increases his injury risk by putting more stress on his arm. He made millions of dollars before he broke down, so you have a hard time blaming him or anyone that coached him. Maybe parts of Zito mechanics increased his curveballs effectiveness at the expense of longevity.
This is the thing in baseball I would be most interested in studying. The correlation of pitching mechanics to maximum performance. I think a lot of people are realizing the correlation of mechanics to longevity, but I there is a risk/reward ratio between mechanics and performance.
odorizzi is ranked the 70th best high school prospect by baseball america, but patrick ebert who works for perfect game and runs the draft coverage for brewerfan.net likes him a lot.
here is what he said:
Jake Odorizzi (Highland, IL) showed the best arm of all, with an extremely loose and live-armed delivery with a projectable frame. He sat in the 90-92 range and hit 93 on two pitches that I saw. He froze hitters with a low-80s slider and mid-70s curve. Great arm, great breaking stuff, and impressive command of all of his pitches. Don’t be surprised to see him taken in the first round in June.
milb.com posted a new draft report today that had scouting reports for smoak, alonso, melville, and cole. i updated the post to include those links.
i think the guy that wrote the melville report stole my comp, he also compared him to phil hughes. i hadn’t seen that anywhere before, but i thought it really was a pretty good one and i guess some one else must agree.
chris, i was wondering if you could take a look at the gerrit cole video from the link. his mechanics look pretty bad, but i was wondering just how bad you think they are.
Cole = Octavio Dotel
“chris, i was wondering if you could take a look at the gerrit cole video from the link. his mechanics look pretty bad, but i was wondering just how bad you think they are.”
I can’t say too much because I can’t go through the video frame by frame.
I will say that he’s a long-armer who is probably more like Andy Sonnanstine than Roy Oswalt (which is on the bad side of the borderline).
He doesn’t look as bad as Crow, but he probably has some Hyperabduction in his arm action.
Also, as usual the draft report is wrong about several things. For instance, he doesn’t really seem to throw across his body.
Pass.
“Cole = Octavio Dotel”
Dotel’s arm action is better than Cole’s. His PAS elbow doesn’t get as high.
The Cole-Dotel comparison was for the mechanics as well as the stuff. They both have the good slider and mid to upper 90s heat. As for the mechanics, they both have the long extension in back which not many have.
Hey Chris, interesting stuff. Honest question here and I hope you don’t take offense.
Have you ever tracked this stuff among MLB pitchers? If not, would you be willing to do some sort of study where you predict injuries and see how you do?
I’m just skeptical by nature, so the “this is why this guy is hurt” post-hoc stuff doesn’t really hit home with me.
“Hey Chris, interesting stuff. Honest question here and I hope you don’t take offense. Have you ever tracked this stuff among MLB pitchers? If not, would you be willing to do some sort of study where you predict injuries and see how you do? I’m just skeptical by nature, so the “this is why this guy is hurt” post-hoc stuff doesn’t really hit home with me.”
Perfectly legitimate question.
I have been doing this for a number of years; making predictions and seeing how they hold up. That’s the essence of the scientific method.
I got some people’s attention when in December 2005 I started expressing concerns about Mark Prior’s shoulder. He had shoulder problems later that Spring.
In December 2006 I said the long term deals that were given to Carpenter and Bonderman were a bad idea.
http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/ThePitchingMechanic/2006/ThePitchingMechanic_200612.html#Long-Term_Deals_For_Bonderman_and_Carpenter
One current guy that I think is due to break down is Anthony Reyes. His arm action is very similar to Mark Prior’s. I have also expressed concerns about Barry Zito in the past due to his Inverted L.
I also think that Mark Prior and BJ Ryan will continue to struggle due to their poor mechanics.
Check out my pitcher picks and pans page, which is dated…
http://www.chrisoleary.com/projects/Baseball/Pitching/RethinkingPitching/Essays/PitcherPicksAndPans.html
Heh, not quite what I had in mind. 7 of the pitchers in the green list pitched for 20+ years, so I’d say those are good picks! That’s not a bad way to study mechanics though< i’m sure.
Thanks for the link, I’ll look over it later. I’m really interested in any injury/mechanics guru doing a more rigorous study somehow — it doesn’t really have anything to do with you specifically.
from callis on ethan martin
John (Grand Rapids, MI): Jim – Since reports from the HS ranks are rather scarce, can you give us a few names of players who are rising up the draft charts early on?
SportsNation Jim Callis: (2:16 PM ET ) The big riser in the first round right now seems to be Georgia HS 3B Ethan Martin. Georgia HS SS Tim Beckham and Florida HS 1B Eric Hosmer remain the best bats, and I still like Missouri HS RHP Tim Melville the best among the arms.
Does anyone have a report on RHP Daniel Webb from Paducah, Kentucky? I used to play against the guy and I hear he’s throwing in the upper 90′s now. I don’t know about his breaking stuff though.
webb has a huge arm. he played for the Southern Illinois Bullets at one point, and their website has him listed as hitting 97 on the radar gun. he is raw in terms of control and secondary offerings, but you can’t deny the arm strength and he has a perfect pitcher’s frame at 6’3″ 200 pounds.
Hey thanks fgc. I noticed he’s around a top 25 prospect correct? Probably no way he falls to the sandwich round.
he could fall that far. its hard to get a read on some of the high school pitchers at this point. that is usually the group that sees the most fluctuation throughout the draft season.
No question I’d like to see the Cards take a local kid, but Melville has really, really struggled. I’d be thrilled if the Cards to Odorizzi who dialed it up to 96mph towards the end of last summer and has been 92-94 this spring and the temp hasn’t gotten above 50. I am not sure if the Cards have showed any interest, but every game is well attended by scouts and management from other teams, so he must be getting looked as a a early pick.