Daily Farm Report – 4/23/08
Posted on April 23rd, 2008 by roarke in Daily Farm Reports, Jaime GarciaKevin Goldstein addressed a Jaime Garcia question in his chat today (I don’t know if Chris from St. Louis is an FR reader that saw Az’s request or if the question was serendipitous, but thanks to Chris for the question, either way):
Chris (St. Louis): Jaime Garcia is off to a great start. If his elbow issues are behind him, and his control seems to be better this year, what’s his ceiling?
Kevin Goldstein: He’s been outstanding. Very good #3 starter. Before anyone gets worked up about that, that is NOT an insult, that’s a high compliment.
Personally, I’m not sure that it is a high compliment. I appreciate that becoming a “very good” number three starter in the major leagues is very difficult and I agree that to project a guy to become that when he has never pitched above AA is not an insult. However, the question was what Garcia’s “ceiling” is. To me, when you say someone’s ceiling is a very good number three, then you don’t think there is any possibility that the player will be better than that. That, to me, is not a high compliment. I also think that Garcia’s ceiling is higher than that. His numbers have been solid at every stop (and his K rate has improved from 2006 to 2007 and from 2007 to this year so far) and he’s got two MLB quality pitches right now. He may end up being a number three pitcher, but I wouldn’t limit his ceiling to that at this point. [Note: I suspect that I just put myself into the category of "someone getting worked up about that" in Kevin's comment, but I can't help myself.]
On to the DFR, where a couple of our young guys jumped all over a big league Ace this afternoon. There were only two games today due to a day off for Memphis and a rainout for Springfield. All the details after the jump.
Springfield vs. NW Arkansas – Rained Out
- Pitching phenom Scott Kazmir made a rehab start for Vero Beach and (Man, Myth and Legend) Steve Hill greeted him warmly with a homerun, a triple and two rbi in going 3-4 on the day.
- Tyler Henley also enjoyed Kazmir’s visit, going yard to lead off the game for the Cardinals.
- Daniel Descalso and Isaiah Garcia also doubled off of Kazmir and each scored a run.
- Kazmir wasn’t really too complimentary of the Cardinals, though:
- “Maybe I threw too many strikes,” he said. “They had some real free-swingers. I don’t even know how that last ball got out. It just kept carrying.”
- On our pitching side, David Kopp got the start and gave up two runs on seven hits and a walk in four innings. He also struck out five.
- Kyle Mura picked up the win, striking out six (!) while giving up two hits and a walk in his three scoreless innings.
- Marco Gonzalez and Jon Mikrut each pitched an inning, with Gonzales giving up a run on three hits and Mikrut yielding only a single in his scoreless inning.
- Adron Chambers went 2-5 with an rbi and a run scored.
- Pete “I was a steal at 18″ Kozma went 2-4 with a triple, two rbi, and two runs scored. He did commit a throwing error in the field.
- Charles Kingrey went 2-4 with two rbi.
- Justin Roberson and Paul Vasquez (in his first game with the team) each went 2-3 with a run scored. Roberson also had a walk and a stolen base.
- Thomas Eager got the start and went five innings, giving up three runs (two earned) on five hits and three walks, while striking out one.
- Eduardo Sanchez got the win in his first outing of the year, striking out three in his three perfect innings.
Entries (RSS)
Is there any way you can give a little more information on Eduardo Sanchez. He was unhitable last year and had nice strike out numbers. So far in his pitching carrear he has been to 3 different levels and only allowing 10 hits in 24.1 innings while striking out 32. Plus hes only 19.
Pete “The Kolossus of Klout” Kozma is unstoppable.
I think saying a guy will be a very good #3 starter is a compliment. But I will say I agree that Garcia’s very highest ceiling could be as a #2 starter.
The “ace” label should only be used sparingly. #1 starters are well above average pitchers that don’t come around minor league systems too often. They are guys with 3 above average pitches and an average or even slightly above average pitch(or two outstanding pitches and one slightly above average pitch), good command, can go 7-8 innings every time out. If you absolutely need to win a game, this is the guy you would not hesitate to send to the mound.
-Ability to put: 18-20 wins, less than 3.30 ERA, 220+ innings(in the NL, increase numbers a little for the AL)
-Examples: Chris Carpenter, Johan Santana, Brandon Webb, Roger Clemens, Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson, etc.
A #2 starter is still a pretty special pitcher. They are guys that can go 7 innings every time out throwing at least 2 above average pitches and another slightly above average pitch with good command.
-Ability to put up: 16-17 wins, 3.30-3.80 ERA, 210+ innings
-Examples: Brad Radke, Andy Pettitte, John Lackey(05-06), Tim Hudson(w/ Braves), Aaron Harang, Adam Wainwright(???, probably)
#3 starters are more like innings eaters than pivotal game winners. You want this guy to try to give you 7 innings every time out. You might not expect it, but you’d like to see him get through 7. They might have 2 above average pitches and an average 3rd pitch. #3 starters will have those great 8-9 inning, 1-2 run outings every now and then but most of the time they’ll give you 6-7 innings with 3 runs allowed.
-Ability to put up: 14-16 wins, 3.80-4.30 ERA, 200+ innings
-Examples: Livan Hernandez, Jake Westbrook, Javier Vasquez, Kevin Millwood
You look at the Cardinals, if Carpenter returns to form, they’ll have a true #1, 2 and 3 starter with Carp, Wainwright and Garcia. Exciting stuff.
Eh, don’t be too hard on Kazmir. It can’t be a good feeling to have gotten knocked around by a bunch of guys still in A ball, when you’re supposed to be BMOC down there. It is a little funny, though, that he had to specify *which* ball surprised him by going out.
You know, Kozma’s trying awfully hard to make us think he really was a steal at 18; in fact, I think he’s trying a little bit *too* hard. Awful needy there, aren’t you Pete? When are the Cardinals going to stop picking such emotionally crippled, overly eager to please players? Between Kozma, Mortensen, and Kopp, I’m feeling more than a little bit suffocated by our recent draftees’ success.
Speaking of which, Kopp is currently sporting a 2.63 FIP. I know it’s only A ball, but I’m required by law to point out when he’s doing well. I know; I don’t like saying it anymore than you all like hearing it, but I can’t just look the other way. I’m sorry.
Oh, also, I agree; Garcia is still underrated.
Re: Kozma’s error: He also started two DPs. Two more cries for attention, I guess.
Also, Tony Cruz caught for PB and threw out another basestealer. His bat hasn’t come around yet this season, but if it does, and if he really can catch, that’s one heck of a 26th-round draft pick.
Plus, he’s only 21 (turns 22 in late August), making him younger than most of his teammates and opponents.
Two more double plays? [ed Geez], Pete. Please just stop; you’re embarassing yourself. You’ve been drinking again, haven’t you?
What do you mean, how do I know? I can always tell; you only make diving stops in the hole followed by a throw from your knees to just edge out the runner whenever you’ve been hanging out at that dive you and your friends thing is so cool. You’re not in high school anymore, Pete. Grow up and act like a man; like a Cardinal middle infielder. Let ground balls pass by, just out of your reach. Flirt with the Mendoza line. Just stop this sad charade of playing like a man possessed, because I just can’t be a part of this anymore. I’m leaving you for someone shorter and scrappier. I’m sorry, Pete. I really am. You and I are just too different.
Well, a “very good #3″ would probably rank as one of the top 60 pitchers in baseball given that there are fewer legit “#1″ pitchers than there are teams. So on one hand, that sounds about right to me.
On the other hand, it’s not hard to find guys with real heavy fastballs who go on to outperform analysts’ projections during their major league career. Nobody saw Fausto Carmona’s 2007 season coming. Nobody projected Brandon Webb as a Cy Young pitcher when he was in the minors. I’m not saying Garcia is a lot like those guys – just that he shares a widely underrated skill.
When I think of a good # 3, I think of someone like Rich Hill or Nick Blackburn. There are very few teams with legit #3 starters, as Birdo said. I don’t really take what KG said as a sleight at all.
As I said in the post, I don’t think it is an insult, but to call it a “high compliment” is overselling it. For an analyst to say that our best pitching prospect has a ceiling of being a #3, I don’t think of that as a compliment.
Part of the problem here is that we are getting tied up in our definitions of #1, #2, and #3 starters. When birdo says that there are fewer legit #1′s than there are teams, I think what you really mean are ‘Ace’ pitchers. By definition every team has a #1 starter. Are they all aces? No. Would they be a #1 on another team? Not always. But every team has a guy that is their #1 guy.
So is KG saying that Garcia would be a good #3 on a team with an Ace and a bona fide #2 (for example, the Indians with Sabathia and Carmona) or is KG saying that Garcia would be a good #3 (but not better) on any team (like the Cardinals where he’d be the third best pitcher behind Wainwright and Lohse right now)? I guess I don’t know the answer to that question, which makes a difference.
Am I thinking about a rather innocuous comment too much? Almost certainly. Is the ask yourself a question and then answer it thing getting old? Absolutely.
rb, when talking about kozma, mortensen, and kopp don’t forget about jess todd.
The question on everybodies mind….
Does Kozma know to cover second base on a gounder to the pitcher?
When I think of legit #3 I think of Jeff Suppan…the link on my name will take you to an article in the Springfield News-Leader about the Cards analytical drafts…not a bad read but not that indepth either…
Pete Kozma, say hello to the futures game.
What happened to Viva El Birdos?
Did Goold shut it down due to frustration of people constantly referring him to posts over there?
SB Nation has gone to hell the past couple days, not just VEB, all their sites are down.
As for Garcia, i’d be perfectly happy with him being a very good #3. A very good #3, in my opinion is your (as someone else said) Jake Westbrook/2005 Mark Mulders. A guy who, in the NL, at his best, will put up an ERA Under 4.
Also, Kozma is pretty exciting so far this year, both him and Mort are making Luhnow look pretty good right now.
I think using “ceilings” like “#3″ and words like “projects to be a backup” is lazy and bad practice. As this thread makes apparent, no two people have the same definition of a “#3″ and therefore to use that kind of descriptor provides no useful information.
The longer I follow prospects, the more annoyed I get by this; I’d much rather see “should be capable of throwing 200 innings at a 120 ERA+” or “is likely a 30 PRC player”. etc. Give me a projection with meat and let me decide whether that’s a #1 or #2 or #5.
OT: the phillies win! Go rox.
Sleepy – I think I’m with you. The term #3 really doesn’t have much meaning without context. Using ERA+ or the like have the context already built in, so we can avoid fruitless discussions (like the one I started with this post).
In defense of #2, #3, etc….
I does help me somewhat….I use it the same way folks use a tiering system, like A, B, or C…..I know roughly that a #3 is something like a Jeff Suppan to a Derek Lowe, but not a John Smoltz or a Dan Haren….I just don’t take it as gosple, because obviously one small tweak or misjudgment can take a guy to the next level (I love the earlier reference to Fausto Carmona and Brandon Webb, both of whom are great examples).
So when Goldstein said “#3″ during that chat, my self-calibration immediately heard “#2 – #4 if all goes well”, which tells me that he doesn’t think Garcia has ace material, but he’s also not going to be Brett Tomko if he develops as projected.
I didn’t see the play with Reyes throwing to 2B. The media and Tony make it out that it was Anthonys fault.
Others have said that Miles was at fault for not covering the bag who was right?
“The longer I follow prospects, the more annoyed I get by this; I’d much rather see “should be capable of throwing 200 innings at a 120 ERA+” or “is likely a 30 PRC player”. etc. Give me a projection with meat and let me decide whether that’s a #1 or #2 or #5.”
see, there is a problem with every system. i have no clue what that stuff you said means. i got 200 innings, but you lost me after that. i know ERA+ is some fielding independent stat, but i don’t really know what a good one looks like or what a 120 ERA+ means.
Red Blazer-
It looked like Kennedy was shadded more toward second base than Miles was. When the ball was hit it looked like Reyes spun very quickly, got a bit jumpy because no one was there yet as the ball was hit farily hard, and thre the ball to Kennedy who was closer to the bag but acutally moving behind the bag, at least 5-6 feet behind the bag. I just think Anthony got a bit excited and threw the ball toward the bag on the second base side of the bag. Miles was getting to the bag as the ball was going by, but it looked like Miles would have had to dive to catch the ball. Kennedy caught the ball and threw the runner out at 2B.
I think if Reyes gathers him-self, waits a touch longer, and picks up Miles coming across the play works.
In that situation it is hard to tell if Kennedy and Miles broke down or if it was Reyes’s fault. None the less someone messed up but it is really hard to tell. We can no see the signs or hear the players talking on the field before the pitch took place.
Red-
I read my response and it was ugly! In a hurry at work.
OK basically it looked like there was a break down in communication somewhere but I am not totally sure where it would have taken place.
They got the out at 1b not 2b as I stated.
fgc, ERA+ is park-adjusted ERA expressed on a percentage basis. Above 100 is good, below 100 is not-so-good. A 120 ERA+ is 20% better than average, which would be pretty much what Wainwright did in 2007.
A statistical primer might be a good idea for a post on an off day.
Garcia is still pretty young (22, I think???). It’s not unlikely that he could be a number 2 starter in my opinion. I think he has more upside than a Suppan-type pitcher, if you want to consider him a number 3 guy.
I always look at Wainwright’s AAA numbers and they were never real spectacular. Reyes’ AAA stats look more impressive, actually. But, Wainwright has definitely evolved into a 2 or 3 guy, maybe even an ace down the road. I think some pitchers just get better as the competition and the challenges get bigger.
To say that Garcia’s ceiling is a number 3 starter is underselling him. A lot could happen between AA ball and the majors (just ask Anthony Reyes), but I think Garcia, especially at his age, has a higher ceiling.