I always look at Wainwright’s AAA numbers and they were never real spectacular. Reyes’ AAA stats look more impressive, actually. But, Wainwright has definitely evolved into a 2 or 3 guy, maybe even an ace down the road. I think some pitchers just get better as the competition and the challenges get bigger.

To say that Garcia’s ceiling is a number 3 starter is underselling him. A lot could happen between AA ball and the majors (just ask Anthony Reyes), but I think Garcia, especially at his age, has a higher ceiling.

A statistical primer might be a good idea for a post on an off day.

I read my response and it was ugly! In a hurry at work.

OK basically it looked like there was a break down in communication somewhere but I am not totally sure where it would have taken place.

They got the out at 1b not 2b as I stated.

It looked like Kennedy was shadded more toward second base than Miles was. When the ball was hit it looked like Reyes spun very quickly, got a bit jumpy because no one was there yet as the ball was hit farily hard, and thre the ball to Kennedy who was closer to the bag but acutally moving behind the bag, at least 5-6 feet behind the bag. I just think Anthony got a bit excited and threw the ball toward the bag on the second base side of the bag. Miles was getting to the bag as the ball was going by, but it looked like Miles would have had to dive to catch the ball. Kennedy caught the ball and threw the runner out at 2B.

I think if Reyes gathers him-self, waits a touch longer, and picks up Miles coming across the play works.

In that situation it is hard to tell if Kennedy and Miles broke down or if it was Reyes’s fault. None the less someone messed up but it is really hard to tell. We can no see the signs or hear the players talking on the field before the pitch took place.

see, there is a problem with every system. i have no clue what that stuff you said means. i got 200 innings, but you lost me after that. i know ERA+ is some fielding independent stat, but i don’t really know what a good one looks like or what a 120 ERA+ means.

Others have said that Miles was at fault for not covering the bag who was right?

I does help me somewhat….I use it the same way folks use a tiering system, like A, B, or C…..I know roughly that a #3 is something like a Jeff Suppan to a Derek Lowe, but not a John Smoltz or a Dan Haren….I just don’t take it as gosple, because obviously one small tweak or misjudgment can take a guy to the next level (I love the earlier reference to Fausto Carmona and Brandon Webb, both of whom are great examples).

So when Goldstein said “#3″ during that chat, my self-calibration immediately heard “#2 – #4 if all goes well”, which tells me that he doesn’t think Garcia has ace material, but he’s also not going to be Brett Tomko if he develops as projected.

The longer I follow prospects, the more annoyed I get by this; I’d much rather see “should be capable of throwing 200 innings at a 120 ERA+” or “is likely a 30 PRC player”. etc. Give me a projection with meat and let me decide whether that’s a #1 or #2 or #5.

OT: the phillies win! Go rox.

As for Garcia, i’d be perfectly happy with him being a very good #3. A very good #3, in my opinion is your (as someone else said) Jake Westbrook/2005 Mark Mulders. A guy who, in the NL, at his best, will put up an ERA Under 4.

Also, Kozma is pretty exciting so far this year, both him and Mort are making Luhnow look pretty good right now.