Will Christian Friedrich be the Cardinals first round pick?
From everything we have heard (and from past experience), it looks like the Cardinals are looking for a college pitcher at 13. The four big names that have been thrown around as the elite group of college hurlers are Brian Matusz of San Diego, Mizzou’s Aaron Crow, Tulane’s Shooter Hunt, and Christian Friedrich from Eastern Kentucky. Fresno State’s Tanner Scheppers would have been right in the middle of this group (and probably 3rd on the list) a couple of weeks ago, but he has since gone down with a stress fracture in his shoulder leaving his draft status very uncertain. The next group of college pitchers probably consists of a pair of hard throwing college relievers who could be converted back into starters. These are TCU’s fast rising Andrew Cashner and Arizona fire baller Ryan Perry. The Cardinals also showed last year that they aren’t afraid to go against third party rankings and take someone they like even if it is seen as a major overdraft. The guy that you need to look at for that kind of scenario is Michigan two-way star Zach Putnam.
The Cardinals probably are wanting one of those top four pitchers, but with Baltimore, Cincinnati, Houston, Texas, and Oakland all possibly looking for a college pitcher its possible they could all be gone. Even if the Cardinals have a shot, they most likely won’t have to make a decision between two of them.
Of this list, the only guy that has no chance of reaching the Cardinals is Brian Matusz. The lefty has established himself as the draft’s top pitcher and will hear his name called first on draft day. With the first three teams seemingly locked in on bats, Matusz could be headed to the Orioles at 4. The next best pitcher on the list is Aaron Crow, but there are starting to be some rumblings that he could fall to the Cardinals. His believed association with Scott Boras, and some questions about his delivery could cause teams to go for the slightly cheaper options. I still don’t believe the 2nd best pitcher in the draft falls to 13, but what do I know?
The best chance to land one of these four is likely either Hunt or Friedrich. Hunt has a great arm, but his control has been all over the place this spring. He is not one of my favorite prospects because the Cardinals don’t have a great track record with these kind of picks, but if he can get it straightened out you are looking at a future number 2 starter. Friedrich is probably the best pitcher the Cardinals have a good shot at selecting. His walk numbers aren’t great, but they are a lot better than Hunt. He also features a devastating curve to complement a solid average fastball and two other pitches that could be average in the future. The only thing standing between the Cardinals and Friedrich could be Oakland at 12.
If those four are gone, I hope the Cardinals will go for a bat like Brett Wallace or take a chance on a local high schooler like Jake Odorizzi, but I think it is possible they still will have a college pitcher at the top of their board. I am having a hard time figuring out just who that will be, but I think it will come from this group of three pitchers. Andrew Cashner has come out of nowhere to become a sure fire first round pick. It all happened after he moved to the bullpen and started unleashing high-90′s fastballs. Even though he is a closer now, he has had some 3 and 4 inning appearances and fared very well. He has a big, durable 6’5″ frame and a clean delivery which could lead to a move back to the rotation in pro ball. Perry is athletic and super projectable at 6’4″ 200 lbs. He also has arguably the best stuff in the draft with a fastball that he can dial up to 98 and a slider and change that have also been plus at times. Despite his stuff he has never been great in the rotation, but he has been dynamite in some longer bullpen appearances. He is also fairly new to pitching having never pitched in high school, so his best days are likely ahead of him. The last of this trio is on this list simply because he fits the Cardinals’ profile perfectly, and they may not want to risk waiting until 39 to grab him if their top options are off the board. Zach Putnam is the best sinker ball pitcher in the draft and has been a top prospect since high school. He is built like a rock and should be able to be a solid innings eater at the next level. He features up to 5 pitches, but his bread and butter is his low-90′s sinker and nasty splitter.
Entries (RSS)
Goold referenced some connections between the organization and Tulane. Could someone fill me in on what those are?
It made me wonder if, all things being relatively equal, if that’s the way the Cards would go.
Something to do with the Tulane head coach and the Cards brass.
Shooter Hunt is very close to what Ottavino was coming out…so there was a fit before that…add in the Tulane connection and you might really have something.
If Hunt is available at #13…I think its a pretty safe bet he is a Cardinals.
B/c if Hunt is available it pretty much means Crow/Friedrich are gone.
The problem with Scheppers is whether the injury is actually worse a stress fracture. Can this story be believed.
Hard to imagine Crow falling, but if he does, we should take him.
Hunt would be fine, but will be gone.
Freidrich sounds unexciting. The Cards may need to pull out a surprise choice, though not Putnam.
I would be happy with CF. In this draft with not a lot of “stars” getting a solid lefty starter with a dominate off speed pitch and solid fastball sounds pretty darn good. I am usually against drafting a pitchers this high that arent ace potential becasue of injury probability but I would be fine with this one.
I am not sure Friedrich would be unexciting…getting a LHP who is only 20, that has a true strikeout pitch to go along with a low 90′s fastball is a pretty nice get for a team that sorely lacks any LHP starting depth behind Garcia.
I worried about his level of comp..but he dominated and was consistent in doing so.
Last 2 years for Friedrich
163 IP
84 H
209 K’s
Against subpar comp…but he did rack up 52K’s in only 37 and in the last game of the struck out Buster Posey, Jason Castro and Gordon Beckham in order.
All 1st round picks…sounds exciting to me!
Sorry….to be clear those 52 K’s and striking out Becks, Posey and Castro came out at the Cape of course.
I cant type worth a damn!
It’s a definite possibility that the Lunhow dropped the very real possibility line as a smoke screen as well. Just because he made that comment doesn’t mean they go college pitcher.
If they go high school pitcher – I hope they go high upside and select Ethan Martin. He’s already touching 96 at 18, and projects as having 3 plus pitches.
I think there is a 50/50 chance Matusz, Crow, Hunt and Friedrich are all gone before 13. If that happens, I still don’t think they take a HS pitcher, but if they do I want Odorizzi.
I think Callis could be on to something when he had us down for Zach Collier. I’d be happy with either Friedrich or Collier. Just please no Ryan Perry.
If all those pitchers are gone..then a nice group of hitters will be left
Brett Wallace and Yonder Alonso (OB% + Power)
Aaron Hicks and Zach Collier (raw tools)
I would personally put Wallace, Hicks and Alonso’s name in a hat and just pick one.
I agree Erik…the Say No To Perry petition needs to be sent around.
Say now to Matt Perry, Luke Perry, Perry Masson, Perry Winkle and especially Ryan Perry!
here’s a real wild card scenario…i don’t see it happening, but what about Josh Fields? Perez’s control has never been great and while he probably could close and should be now, there is the chance he could ultimately disappoint. Fields seems like the better pitcher overall, but not by much. And Perez-Fields would be a pretty filthy combo in the late innings. It would pretty much make it a 7 inning game about every night. Throw in Motte, and make it 6.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not advocating it. It does seem redundant.Just spitballing.
RH relief has to be the strongest positon in the entire system from MLB club to A ball….so even know you draft for BPA and not need.
There is a bit of overkill here.
I have made a shallow case for taking a guy like Schlereth at #39 b/c he is LH and is probably only 30 to 50 appearances away from contributing in the MLB;s…but even that isnt all that exciting
The Cards can always move McCormick, Boggs or Todd to the bullpen if they want a quick fix from the RH side in the pen.
I am usually a high upside HS guy…but the chance to get a polished college arm (Friedrich) or a polished college bat (Wallace/Alonso) is too good to pass up.
By going for a safer college guy..you can take a high upside HS kid at #39 with Gray, Ladensdorf (JUCO), D.Hood or I.Galloway.
erik, its not like fields has any better control. he has struggled with walks too. personally, if we go closer i would rather have cashner.
He doesn’t? Oh, crud. I’m not sure why I was thinking he had better control but you are right, he walks about as many as CP.
I think if they drafted Cashner they could try and put him back into starting, then if all else fails switch him back to relief.
re: Perry
I’m not as familiar with these players as some of you guys but Jess Todd split time as a reliever at Arkansas before the Cardinals drafted him. He was pegged as a fastball-slider reliever from the start but he’s done very well thus far as a starter.
If the Cardinal scouts are coming back saying “this Perry guy can start” that could be a market inefficiency that the team is trying to exploit.
I’d say there’s also a tipping point where the Cardinals can basically outsmart themselves in trying to be too clever but it’s something to consider.
Todd at least showed in college he can be a succesful starter, something Perry hasnt.
Todd also dominated, Perry has been good but for a guy with that raw of stuff he hasnt be lights out.
Todd in the SEC posted a 12.34K’s per 9….not only was he getting outs..he was making college hitters swing and miss.
I am of the believe that if you cant make college hitters swing and miss…your not going to do it at the MLB level either. So if that is the case you better have pinpoint control or a plus sinker
For all that 98mph fastball and good secondary stuff…Perry is striking out less then 9 per 9IP and his hits per IP are not all that great…especially for someoen who gets to come in and throw all out for an inning or 2 and rarely has to see a better for the 2nd time and make adjustments.
You see other closers put up Nintendo type numbers (Fields, Cashner, Schlereth) so Perry’s good but not great numbers to me look avg at best…considering his role and stuff.
I see what you’re saying AZ, but unlike Todd, Perry has been A) quite hittable. B) doesn’t miss bats as much as his stuff would suggest. I’m all for exploiting the market, but Perry just strikes me as one of the most overrated p’s in the draft. That’s why we’ve been so opposed to him. Cashner OTOH I think could have the stuff to start, and if he fails you could always put him back in the pen.
i guess i don’t have as big of a problem with perry as some of the other people do. i would almost prefer him to hunt b/c he has actually shown that he can throw the ball over the plate.
I like Hunt much much more….he has at least shown flashes of being able to start and finish games with pure dominance.
When he does get the ball in the zone..he is extremely hard to hit.
The walks are scary, but the BAA (.148) is just unreal for a guy who plays in a pretty good conference.
Perry has shown he struggles in a starting role…so Hunt is better by pure experience and production…plus its hard to believe Hunt’s stuff wouldnt jump up 3 or 4 MPH if moved to a 1 inning, full out role like Perry has been.
Sometimes the exciting what and the upside of a player doing something he hasnt proven he can do…is somehow better then a person who has already shown he can do it.
Hunt’s walks suck…but another recent pitcher had the same prob…nobody could hit, he walked too many and K’d a ton…it was Lincecum who posted over 5 BB’s per 9 in college.
Walks suck…but outside of the pitch counts the WHIP is fine…basically only 1.00
lincecum did improve his walks, but what about guys in the cardinals system. the guy i think of when i think of hunt is mark mccormick and he never improved his control. lambert and ottavino also haven’t improved their control. the cardinals haven’t shown the ability to make the necessary adjustments with a pitcher to improve their walk rate, so i would much rather have a guy that has shown the ability to throw strikes.
another thing, its not like perry is blowing it out for an inning at a time. he isn’t the closer, he has been pitching 3 or 4 innings at a time out of the pen. sure some dominating strikeout numbers and a low hit total would be great, but i rate the walk rate right with that and i haven’t seen anything that would point to hunt improving upon that. i think the thing that worries me the most is that his control actually wasn’t bad last year, but it has completely disappeared last summer on the cape and this year. i don’t like to see guys get worse.
No Friedrich please.
Let’s take someone with some upside, we haven’t picked this high in years.
We can get as many back of the rotation soft tossers as we can handle in the later rounds.
We have depth at the upper levels, and don’t need a guy just because he should be a fast riser.
Hicks is the pick.
I just dont understand how a 20 year old who was one of the top 10 prospects at the Cape that posts unreal avg against and K’s doesnt have upside.
I can understand if this was Nick Schmidt…but we are talking about a guy who poses 2 plus pitches. A low 90′s fastball from a LHP is considered a plus pitch in my mind. ..there just arent that many starting LH’s in the MLB’s who can sit in the low 90′s
I am a big upside guy……I just dont see how people continue to say Friedrich has no upside, is non-exciting..yet he is ranked in the top 15 by almost every scouting service and most mock drafts have him going in the top 12 overall.
Jaime Garcia is a LHP who throws in the low 90′s with a plus curve and decent to avg secondary stuff. Everyone continues to call him a very good #3…who in here wouldnt take Garcia at #13 in the draft if he was available?
I have yet to see anywhere that thinks Friedrich is a back of the rotation guy or a soft tosser.
Cards would be lucky if Friedrich falls to them.
yeah, i don’t buy the no upside with friedrich either.
i know you like him bob, and he does have upside, but i just don’t think hicks is ever going to hit. this guy has major bust written all over him.
I like Hicks and would have no problem if the Cards took him..love his upside..but what is he?
As a CF’er…is there really that much difference from him at #13 and the list of potential guys at #39?
Issac Galloway/Tyler Ladendorf/Destin Hood/Zach Collier.
Last time the Cards picked that high they took the Toosly HS kid (Boyd) over the polished college player (Utley)
I prefer HS players…but at #13 you got a chance to take someone who might be just a 1 1/2 away.
I love Friedrich. He’s the #1 guy I’m hoping the Cards get, unless magically somehow Kyle Skipworth or Gordon Beckham falls to us.
Just judging by most rankings and mock drafts, just off the top of my head the players who should be realistically on the board that I hope the Cards get are
1. Friedrich
2. Hunt
3. Wallace (but boy, I do worry if he can stick at 3B)
4. Collier (and it’s super close with w/Wallace)
5. Odorizzi
6. Brett Lawrie (where to play him?)
7. Cashner (with hopes he can start)
Ethan Martin is in the mix too…
Picks who may be available I’d like them to avoid are
1. Hicks (major concerns about his bat, I prefer him as a P)
2. Tim Melville (just too up and down)
3. Kelly-same deal w/Hicks
4. Jason Castro…solid player, but I really don’t see why another catcher.
Don’t see how you like Collier more than Hicks. Collier is probably even more raw. And pretty much came out of nowhere this season. Not that I don’t like Collier, but I don’t see anyway I draft him over Hicks. Also, Hicks could be a gold glover in center with his range and great arm. And if he fails at hitting he always can go to pitching unlike Collier. Then again, what do I know.
I agree with you about staying away from Melville and Castro though.
personally, me just watching both of them swing the bat I feel more comfortable that Collier will hit, and hit for power.
Brett Wallace’s bat might be the skill available at #13 and you almost have to take it and find him a place to play.
Scouts dont give out all that much sure fire praise..but this I found funny from Goldstein’s article
[/quote]as one scouting director joked, “If Wallace doesn’t hit in the big leagues, I don’t know who does[/quote]
Supposedly he has lost 20 to 25 lbs since he arrived on campus and his 40 SB’s in 3 years at ASU is a nice sign he isnt as heavy legged as it might seem.
if crow and friedrich are gone they better take wallace. the guy is going to hit, and you don’t pass on sure fire bats. stick him at third and see what happens. if he can’t cut it there, put him in left. he can’t be any worse than duncan.
Regarding Friedrich, I know he is pretty much universally liked. However, I’ve seen him pitch a couple times and came away unimpressed both times. His fastball velocity was pretty much in the upper 80′s, not the low 90′s as is being reported, and he had big time problems getting that curveball anywhere near the strike zone. He wasn’t fooling anybody, and the righties in the lineup didn’t have a bad at bat the entire time.
I just see him as a back of the rotation starter, if that. I’ve been wrong many times, but I can’t justify that kind of player at 13.
Hicks I would say is pretty much a lock to be a game changer in the field and on the bases. I’ve read a couple scouting reports that said he could be a centerfielder in the big leagues tomorrow (defensively). I understand the concerns over his bat, but I’m not going to pigeon-hole an 18 year old and say he can’t hit.
Players with that kind of athletic ability are hard to pass up.
I’m just not diggin the college pitchers who might be available with our pick. If they take Wallace though, I’m not going to be upset.
Keith Law 5/27/08
“Start adding 6’6″ lefty submarine pitcher, Nick Boemler, to your first round mock draft’s. Most experts have had him as a 5-10 round pick this spring but inside sources from the A’s, Twins, and Blue Jays claim they are all looking hard at taking him in the 1st round. He happens to play on the same high school team as Jake Odorizzi who has been rising fast on all draft boards lately. Boemler has been overshadowed by two way star, Odorizzi, all season because of his low 90′s fastball and four year stint of dominance, but Boemler is also legit. He seems like an unconventional pick for “Moneyball” type franchises because they don’t like to draft high school pitchers, but something is obviously drawing these teams to the tall lefty. Perhaps it is his signability. Because of a miserably low GPA and several discipline problems, Boemler is headed to local junior college, Southwestern Illinois College and said to be easily signable. Despite the obvious attitude problem, Boemler has had similar success to Odorizzi on the mound the past two seasons. Nick Boemler gave up four earned runs in his first start of the season and has been untouchable since. He has a 0.54 ERA in 52 IP with 87 K, 7 BB, and 19 HBP. He has also shown tremendous athletic ability at center field and as a switch hitter with 15 HRs. He only projects as a pitcher however because of an all or nothing approach at the plate (.214 BA and 44 Ks). Although he just graduated, Boemler is 20 years old because of his two year sentence to juvenile detention. His out of school actions seem to be no concern to the scouts who are drooling at his unheard of repertoire which consists of an upper 80′s fast ball, devastating split finger, and knee buckling knuckleball. His microscopic 7 BB’s demonstrate his excellent command of all three pitches. Whether or not Boemler makes to the big show, he is a one of a kind talent and it will be very interesting to watch his progress.”
is keith law serious about this guy? ive never heard about him until I received his insider e-mail this morning…he sounds incredibly talented, but why would anyone draft someone with such an attitude flaw?
Sounds like a joke.
Even a nut like Law will not say a guy has a miserable GPA or is getting out of a house of detention, even if true.
We have seen Perry throw and the kid has MAJOR potential. Cards will go with a fast to bigs type pitcher in this years draft. So put your caps on becuase it’s a pitcher going to the cards