After following this draft class very closely over the last year, here are my final top 30 rankings.
1. Pedro Alvarez, 3b, Vanderbilt
He hasn’t had the best season and has battled injury, but he still has the most dynamic bat in the draft.
2. Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego
The big lefty has established himself as the draft’s number one pitcher and should be ready for the big leagues in short order.
3. Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia HS
The draft’s best prep position player has the tools to stick at short and an improving bat.
4. Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri
The righty hit a rough patch after his big scoreless streak, but he has been pitching great for a month. His fastball/slider combo is the best in the draft.
5. Buster Posey, C, Florida St.
The very athletic Posey has the tools to be above average behind the plate and in the batter’s box.
6. Eric Hosmer, 1b, Florida HS
The big slugger has the best bat among prep position players. He is also a pretty good athlete as he is a good first baseman, and he can bump mid-90′s gas from the left side.
7. Justin Smoak, 1b, South Carolina
The switch-hitter has huge power from both sides of the plate. He also has a great approach and a good glove.
8. Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia
His power numbers have slowed down from his blazing start, but he still provides above average power from a middle infield position.
9. Yonder Alonso, 1b, Miami (FL)
He combines a pure stroke with big time power. He is the total package as a hitter, but will his lack of athleticism cause him to fall?
10. Kyle Skipworth, C, California HS
He has above average power and arm strength from behind the plate, but the track record on high school catchers taken in the first round is not good.
11. Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky
There are questions about his competition and his command, but he has above average velocity and the draft’s best curveball.
12. Brett Wallace, 3b, Arizona St.
Like Alonso he offers a great pure stroke and 25 homer power. His looks will fool you when it comes to his athleticism, and he may not be locked in to first base like many believe.
13. Brett Lawrie, 3b/C, Canada HS
Shooting up draft boards due to his jaw dropping performances against professional competition with a wood bat. He doesn’t have a lot of experience, but he does have a lot of power.
14. Zach Collier, OF, California HS
A late comer to the first round, Collier won’t turn 18 until the end of summer. He offers a big frame and a lot of power potential from the left side.
15. Aaron Hicks, CF/RHP, California HS
The draft’s best athlete Hicks offers plus tools in the field and on the mound. His mid-90′s fastball and power curve are intriguing, but he wants to be a position player where he can take advantage of his plus speed.
16. Tim Melville, RHP, Missouri HS
He hasn’t had the spring everyone had imagined, but he is still the best high school pitcher in the country. He offers the potential of two future plus pitches in his low to mid-90′s fastball and hammer curve along with a very projectable frame.
17. Ethan Martin, RHP, Georgia HS
If Melville is 1, Martin is 1a. He also offers mid-90′s velocity and is very athletic on the mound.
18. Casey Kelly, SS, Florida HS
Kelly is a big shortstop with soft hands and a strong arm. There are questions about his bat, but he knows how to play the game and could be an above average major league shortstop some day.
19. Shooter Hunt, RHP, Tulane
Hunt has everything you look for in a top of the rotation starter with a fastball that touches the mid-90′s and a hammer curve in the low-80′s. Unfortunately he struggles with his control and is still pretty raw for a college pitcher.
20. Jason Castro, C, Stanford
He is a strong defensive catcher with power from the left side. There are some worries that he may be a one year wonder, but he does offer an intriguing package.
21. Jake Odorizzi, RHP, Illinois HS
He combines the best command in the high school ranks with a fastball that can touch the mid-90′s and two good breaking balls. Also a very good athlete and top shortstop, Odorizzi has very clean mechanics.
22. Andrew Cashner, RHP, TCU
He exploded on the scene this year with a high-90′s fastball after being moved to the pen. He still struggles with consistency with his slider, but he is the draft’s top college closer.
23. Gerrit Cole, RHP, California HS
People question his make-up and his mechanics, but the stuff is undeniable. A team willing to take a risk could get a steal in the back of the first round.
24. Ryan Perry, RHP, Arizona
He offers arguably the best pure stuff in the draft with the potential for 3 plus pitches, but he has never succeeded in a starting role. A team that believes he can stick in the rotation could take him much higher.
25. Jemile Weeks, 2b, Miami (FL)
His dynamic speed and switch-hitting ability make him an ideal lead-off candidate. There are questions about his glove, but he has plus range and decent pop from the 2nd base position.
26. Ike Davis, OF/1b, Arizona St.
Davis had always been a solid producer, but he exploded this spring showing very good power. He is aggressive at the plate, but he makes good contact and profiles as a prototypical right fielder with his power bat and arm.
27. Brett Devall, LHP, Florida HS
The draft’s top high school lefty has good size and a great idea of what he is doing on the mound. His arsenal consists of a high-80′s fastball that can reach 93 and a good curve.
28. Conor Gillaspie, 3b, Wichita St.
He doesn’t have the prototypical corner power, but he is a great pure hitter and knows how to play the game.
29. Reese Havens, SS, South Carolina
Many think he doesn’t have the range for short, but he has made great strides with the bat over the last year. He has surprising pop and a good idea of what he is doing at the plate.
30. Josh Fields, RHP, Georgia
He has great stuff, but he is still raw on the mound despite being a college senior. Fields slumped down the stretch, but he is still a candidate to be the first player from this class to reach the major leagues.
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I asked this Question of Goldstein.
Steve (St. Louis): Do you see the Cardinals potentially taking Brett Lawrie if he falls to them?
Kevin Goldstein: Not from what I’m hearing.
that’s not going to make a lot of people around here happy. luhnow likes to have history on his picks, and that is why i never really considered lawrie to be a possibility.
Well here’s my follow up question. No real surprises.
Steve (St. Louis): Then are you still thinking Friedrich for the Cards at 13?
Kevin Goldstein: He’s a good fit there, and if you are mocking, he’s one of those guys you have to find a home for and you know he’s going to go pretty good. Cardinals are one of the more challenging teams to figure out as the are very, very tight-lipped with the media and within the industry as a whole.
What is that likelihood that either Havens or Weeks could slip as far as the Cards compensatory pick? Slim? Or is a reasonable possibility?
I was impressed with Havens overall, in the little I have seen. He made some nice plays in the field also. One in particular ranging into the hole, and had enough on his throw to finish the play off too.
I don’t know if he has plus range, but I don’t think he’s Aaron Miles out there at short either. I personally think maybe he could stick at SS, but I haven’t seen enough to reject the scouts opinions – that’s for sure.
i would say virtually no chance. kevin goldstein said today that the mets aren’t going to let weeks get past them, and there are apparently 3 teams at the end of the first round in on havens.
Asked this in the minorleagueball.com mock thread, but moving to one with more traffic…
Few questions (mostly involve chances guys fall)…
1) What are the odds of Crow really falling to 13th and Cards deciding to not have a Porcello sequel?
2) Love the Conor Gillipsie pick at 39, chances that will actually happen?
3) I know Dan Schlereth will not make it as far as he did in the minorleageball.com mock, but will he be around at 59? Love this guy, especially with our dirth of lefties in the farm bullpen, Tyler Johnson hurt, Randy Flores back to earth, and Ron Villone sucking.
4) This is the first hearing about 3b Chris Dominguez from Louisville. Since two of our messageboard draft experts are so high on him, was hoping some more could be shared about him.
5) Also, any input on Cutter Dykstra, Matt Marquis, and Wade Miley as the talk on this thread has me really intrigued.
1) i would say about a 10% chance. word is he is definitely falling past 7, but i think it will be tough for the rangers to pass on him at 11
2) i think there is a small chance, but i can see the indians taking him at 29. if not i think he goes early in the sandwich round.
3) word is schlereth is going in the first. you might have to take him at 13 to get him, and he is definitely not going to be there at 39.
4) he was a big time prospect out of high school that went to college. he has big time power and is a pretty good defender. there are questions about his contact ability, but he has made great strides in that area in the last year. you won’t get more upside out of any player than him in the 3rd round.
5) i’m not a big fan of dykstra. he is a little guy with some speed, but profiles as a centerfielder and i don’t think he has enough bat for that position. marquis has a ton of power and a great arm, but some people question his hitting ability. he has huge upside. wade miley is a lefty with good stuff, but he just hasn’t dominated against inferior competition.
few, thanks for all the answers, love your input, and loved what you did with the minorleagueball.com mock. You’ve sold me on Chris Dominquez and Johnny Giovatella, hope we can get them.
Hope Schlereth can make it to 39, but guess we will see.
What do you think of Shooter Hunt, and chances of him being at 13?
Who are you wanting at 39 if Schlereth is not there or some other higher ranked guy not falling?
Also, thoughts on Tyler Ladendorf and Lonnie Chisenhall. They are my next choices for 2b and 3b if can’t get Dominquez and Giovatella.
Due to college commitments, where take Trey Haley and Matt Marquis, or should not even try for them?
shooter hunt should be there for sure at 13. there is a lot of talk of him falling, and it sounds like the cardinals will pass on him (thankfully) and let him keep on sliding.
Its good to see Hunt’s named not linked to the Cardinals. Thats a big relief.
Baseballatc, I’m a big fan of Tyler Ladendorf. He’s my #1 guy at 39. Don’t think he’ll make it to 59. He has a very good bat and the skills to handle SS or 3rd. He also has some pretty good speed on the bases. He’s one of the more underrated guys in this draft, IMO. I’d take him before Anthony Hewitt.
If we could get a combo of Friedrich and Ladendorf with our first two picks I’d be happy, to say the least.
Why do neither of you like Shooter Hunt? I think his running out of gas near the end is due to his coach overusing him. Put him in a minor league system that keeps from doing such things, and I think he flourishes. And given his stuff, that would be a good thing. This is all theoretical of course.
High BB/9 numbers scare me a lot. He does have great stuff, but if he can’t find the zone or can’t place his pitches where he needs to in the zone he is just going to wind up like Adam Ottavino and Chris Lambert.
I still have a feeling he will be the pick, though. I’m not totally sure how I’d feel, though. I keep thinking that he is just struggling with control because he recently added 2-3 MPH to his fastball and throws it with a lot of movement so maybe he can correct in time. He didn’t walk that many his freshman and sophomore years, so who knows what he’ll do in pro ball.
I probably won’t be mad if he is the pick, but I’d like someone like Friedrich or Wallace if they are on the board.
i don’t like hunt, but i sure would take him over fields, cashner, and perry.
I only have interest in Wallace if he can stick at 3rd, if not, prefer some impact pitcher. After pitchers, want as many good college infielders as can get, hence then interest in guys mentioned before, and why so big on the guys you two are giving info on.
Who are some other guys, not just infielders you both hope we pick up later in the draft?
i love joe wieland, a high school pitcher from nevada. he has good stuff, a great delivery, and excellent command of all his pitches.
I know Few is big on Matt Marquis and he does look like he could be a good one.
Seth Lintz looks like a very good pitcher. Would probably have to be the 2nd round pick. He throws a nice low 90s fastball and big curveball.
Aaron Shafer from Wichita State would be another good pickup in the 2nd round.
I’m a big fan of Dominguez in round 3.
I think Charles Blackmon from Georgia Tech could be one of the steals of the draft. He’s a lesser Rick Ankiel having made the move from the mound to the field. He has 5 tool potential and hit .397 in his first year of hitting in college.
Justin Bristow from East Carolina could be a nice pickup in the 5th or 6th round. He the great pitchers from and good command of his stuff.
Riccio Torrez, a SS/2B, is committed to ASU to play with his brother so if he falls because of signability he could be a good guy to take a flyer on in like the 10-15 rounds. Or he could be a good pick in rounds 4 or 5 if he wants to sign.
Michael Tonkin falls into the same boat. If he wants to sign, he could be a great pick in the 3rd-5th round range. He has a lot of movement on his fastball. He is committed to USC.
You guys are making me fall in love with so many players, and I’ll now be slightly brokenhearted if we don’t get any of them. Anyone else you suggest?
New guys for me, Lintz, Haley (from few’s mock) and Torrez. Other guys cool too, but those jumped out at me even moreso.
I’m hoping that is a draft strategy, go for alot of those guys that fall due to college and then make a run for them. Main guys for me in that regard: Haley, Marquis, and Torrez. Who else would fit this mold for you two?
Also, thoughts on IF Ryan Flaherty from Vandy?
I’m not totally sure they will fall due to signability. Haley has the best chance of falling.
A guy that I just found who is said to have a strong college committment is Kyle Winkler. He’s small but he reminds me of Joshua Wilson with the power fastball-curve combo.
Flaherty wouldn’t be a bad pickup at all in the 2nd or 3rd round. I think some team could reach for him in the sandwich round, though. He has a nice stick from the left side which is a big plus and he has been able to handle SS at Vandy despite his size.
Another SS from a big time college program to consider would be Brandon Crawford. Crawford will for sure be a SS in pro ball while some still question Flaherty’s abilities there. Crawford has looked lost at the plate a lot this year but I just watched all of the Bruins games in regionals and man was he crushing the ball. He a HR to CF and a couple of doubles of the wall in LF showing oppo power. He’s a risky pick and might require some extra money, but he has shown signs of turning it around. If he could get his offense going, he’d be a steal with where he’ll probably go.