lboros already tackled this subject at VEB, but here is my case for why the Cardinals should be sellers-
After a rough road trip, John Mozeliak dismissed the notion of being sellers at the deadline. Judging from the sound of things, the team will be moderate buyers but won’t do anything they feel would hurt the long-term health of the club. That’s good, but should the Cards be sellers?
In just seven days the Cardinals have seen their postseason odds drop dramatically, 26% to be exact. They now have just a 13% chance of making the playoffs. Their Pythagorean W-L record is 55-52 and their adjusted record (record adjusted by equivalent runs/equivalent runs allowed;strength of schedule also factored) is actually 52-54. PECOTA has the Cards pegged to finish the season 85-77, 7 games behind the Brewers and 9 games behind the Cubs.
Or, in less stat speak: The Cardinals are gonna have a heck of a time catching the Brewers and the Cubs. Both teams were quite talented to begin with, and they both greatly enhanced their chances with adding CC and Harden. Now both clubs are on pace to win 90+ games. While their scrappiness and fight has been a joy to watch, this team strikes me as an overachieving bunch that is likely to regress to the mean and showed signs of that this past week.
Obviously, the return of Carpenter and Wainwright could be meaningful, but it’s hard to bet your season on one player just coming back from Tommy John surgery. And given the team is also toying with the notion of putting Wainwright back into the bullpen, having him back won’t be as big. I realize things have gotten rotten out there, but putting AW in the ‘pen in hopes of stabilizing the situation would counterproductive, especially considering the man can give you innings.
I’m not trying to be a pessimist, but I just think now could be a good time to cash in some of the chips to bolster the farm system: Lohse’s value is at an all-time high. Ryan Ludwick would fetch the team a pretty nice return, although Lud will only have three years of MLB service under his belt, so there’s an argument for keeping him if you believe his breakout is real. Looper will be a free agent this fall. Pineiro’s value isn’t going to get a lot higher. And Cesar Izturis probably wouldn’t fetch much, but if they can get anything in return for him, they should take it.
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I’m with you. Plus, does it even make the team worse dumping Lohse, Looper, Izturis and Pineiro? wouldn’t that actually improve the team’s chances of winning baseball games?
I agree with Larry Boros, at VEB. I hope the Cards make some moves that will strengthen them for future years but not at the expense of their most valuable prospects (Rasmus, Anderson, Perez, Garcia, etc.). If they packaged Schumaker, Jay, and Mortenson for a good LH relief pitcher or middle infield prospect who would be with the Cards at least the next two seasons, that would be a net plus. The Cards have a surplus of outfielders and RH starting pitching prospects. They can be replaced. So trading such assets would yield a net positive result, the rest of this season and in coming years.
i wouldn’t give up ludwick (althought there is a chance this is just a career year), but i would be all for moving kyle lohse. we could either get a near major league ready starting pitcher or a good upper level shortstop prospect. i know there is a chance we get some nice picks out of him after the year anyway, but unless he is a type A free agent and we get a team’s first round pick i don’t think it comes close to matching the value we would get in a trade.
lohse is the only one that i would consider trading. if the cards could get a premium prospect i would seriously consider it. if they cant, they should hold on to him. it is possible (unlikely, sure…but possible) that the cards make a playoff run. when wainwright comes back you could move wellemeyer or looper to closer and have carpenter also getting some relief innings to help out the pen (at least that is how I would do it). also, lohse should at least be a type b free agent. its not a total loss if he walks at the end of the year. with a little luck maybe he would even make type A.
i’d prefer to keep ludwick. i imagine there is only lukewarm interest in looper and pineiro. i dont think anyone has any interest in izturis. there might be some interest in springer, but it is hard to say if the cards would trade him. i dont believe he has a no trade clause but as far as i know he only wants to play in stl for family reasons.
I actually thought we should be sellers a couple of weeks ago, but does anyone know the specifics on Lohse’s contract? I believe there was something in Grudz’s contract a couple of years ago that said we could not offer him arbitration and he ended up being a type A free agent. Also, correct me if I’m wrong, but I think they do the free agent classification off of the previous two years (2007 … 9-12, 4.63).
I’d probably be willing to trade just about anyone on the big league club not named Pujols, Carpenter, or Wainwright.
Everyone has a price, why not cash in now while the prices on most of them are likely at an all-time high?
The problem with selling off at this point, is that it clearly signals the end of this season. Attendance will fall, fans will call for Mo’s head because they were “still in it”.
I don’t envy Mo’s position right now, but I think either way, as long as he comes out of this with his premier prospects still in the organization, it’s going to be a long term win.
If I were Mozeliak, I would pay someone to take Izturis.
Ludwick for Brignac
I was thinking Lohse for Brignac.
This quote from the Baseball Prospectus 2008 yearbook strikes me as topical: “”It’s still a slender bet, but as the Cubs and Brewers are the teams to beat in the Central … the Cardinals could still thrust themselves into contention midseason should they be able to hover around .500 in the early going.”
Suppose exactly that had happened: an even record early, with everybody healthy, and Carp returning soon after the All-Star break. The consensus, if you believe BP, would be that the team might think about being buyers rather than sellers, because they’d still be in sight of a playoff spot. So with a BETTER result early, and WORSE injury problems than BP anticipated — yet with the prospect of a couple of big-name competitors coming off the DL shortly — why on earth behave more pessimistically? I don’t see becoming a seller at all. PHE, I agree with you: make smart moves, not hyperactive or fatalistic ones, and try for the best of both worlds. The team is good enough that it’s achievable.
i saw the franklin backyard baseball ad on the side, and at first i thought it said franklin backyard blown save.
what about glaus? he’s been great, but if we are considering turning to selling mode, he would be the best chip. he has been one of the best 3b in the NL this year and would definitely be worth a top prospect to a team that is in the hunt.
i wouldnt do it just to be dumping salary (glaus is worth his paycheck and will be next year if we exercise his $11 million option), but if we are looking towards the future, we have some depth at 3b with craig, freese, and wallace.
Why do I always feel like I’m at odds with the majority of fans? For example, at this same juncture in 2006, I believe that Larry was advocating that they cash in all their chips — even mentioning trading Reyes, if I recall correctly — and go for it. I, on the other hand, preferred selling and continuing to build the depleted farm system, because I feared that we’d spend the next few years in the cellar if we didn’t.
Even though they never made any major trades that year, Larry was obviously right — including the suggestion of trading Reyes, who I know he liked — and I was wrong. But I like this year’s team, and they’re in the thick of it, despite only having a small chance of actually making the playoffs.
It probably doesn’t matter what they do, however, since it’s not likely that they’ll make the playoffs, or give up too much, if they choose to sell. Funny thing is that I’d hoped that they would become sellers throughout most of this season, but my opinion has changed as deciding factors have been more clear. The two most important factors are that a) they are still in the race and b) I’m skeptical that they’ll receive much in return for anyone other then Rasmus or Garcia, whom most of believe are untouchable.
I very well may be wrong, but I’m skeptical that trading either Lohse or Ludwick would bring a great haul in return. If they would, then I’ll climb aboard the sellers express, but I’m not for selling to receive anything less then prospects with star potentials. If they don’t sell, then I won’t mind if they dig into the farm for collateral, as long as it’s the right move(s). Currently we’re loaded with outfielders, the rotation seems pretty well setup for the future, and we have a finicky pitching coach, so if the right deal came along for Rasmus, Garcia or Todd, then that’s okay with me. All I ask is that they don’t let any of these guys go for rentals that have no future with the organization, since it’s unlikely that they’ll receive anyone who will vastly upgrade the current team, with the possible exception of a dependable closer.
Though young, and lacking the composure that comes with experience at times, this team is pretty solid and doesn’t need much to push it to the next level. We really need to address the glut in the oufield while we have value there, which can happen whether we’re buyers or sellers. However it goes down, I think we can all agree that we don’t want to mortgage the future, but they can do that with either route — even with a deal that includes Rasmus.
I think you mean 2007, because if Larry said we should be sellers in 2006 (which he did. He and I argued one day about whether the team could still make the playoffs), he was wrong in believing so.
Anyways, I’m sure you meant 2007.
(1) Screw PECOTA. Didn’t the brilliant PECOTA system pick the Cards to finish 15-20 games under .500? I’d give almost no weight to PECOTA, when it comes to *this* Cards team *this* season.
(2) As VEB pointed out, this Redbird squad has earned the right to fight for the playoffs
(3) Despite the seeming fixation on B. Fuentes, he is far fron the only lefty bullpen arm available. A guy like Ron Mahay–or better, Scott Downs–should be just as good as Colorado’s all-star, and *much* more reasonably priced. Or heck, the Cards could add a RHP to the pen instead. After all, other than McClellan & Springer, who elicits confidence from Cards fans when he takes the bump?
(4) The Cards could even trade for a mediocre starter, allowing them to shift, say, Wellemeyer to the less taxing relief role. (Too many 5-inning outings for TW lately.)
It’s fine with me if Schu or Duncan or Brad Thompson are traded to an A.L. contender, since they are eminently replaceable–Mather would in fact provide a likely *improvement* over Skip/Dunc at this point. So much more power than the former, better defense/baserunning than the latter.
To Card management, I’d say: “Don’t overpay for Fuentes…but you MUST get a solid bullpen arm. Preferably a southpaw (TLR has the obsessive need for multiple pen lefties) who will be with the team beyond 2008.
Hey Guys-
I’m all for trading Ludwick(aslong as we get a very good prospect) simply because I would love to see Joe Mather get 2 months of everyday time in LF. Rasmus is in the lineup next year and Stavinoa, Jay and possibly Jones knocking on the major league door behind Ankiel, Schumaker, Rasmus and Mather. We can afford to move Ludwick and still contend. That’s what I call having your cake and eating it too!
What do you all think?
Casey
I like it Casey.
How about Ludwick and David Freese to Arizona for Max Sherzer
Ludwick should provide a relatively cheap .900 OPS for the next couple of years–not a guy to trade, at all. Mather should be a great #4 outfielder next year, with Skip a terrific #5. (Starters Lud, Raz, and Ank, of course.)