Jul
31
2008
The official FR trade deadline discussion thread
Posted by erik in July 31st trade deadlineI’m not sure if I’ll be around when the news or non-news hits at the trade deadline, so here’s a place to discuss all things trade deadline concerning the Cardinals. I’m not expecting much.
UDPATE 3:00 PM *crickets chirping* Looks like the farm system stays intact, but I’m sure it takes a little time to get the news out.
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Jason Stark is reporting that the Cardinals have made Kyle Lohse available for the right package because they “concluded that they didn’t have the prospects” to get both a bat and a bullpen arm. I don’t doubt that they’ve run Lohse up the flagpole, but I don’t buy the reasoning. I think it is more likely that they just don’t want to part with any of their top prospects and that they’ve made Lohse available in an effort to help now and for the future. It really wouldn’t help the bullpen this year to trade away one of our most reliable starters for a bullpen arm – we need the reliability to avoid over-using the pen. Stark listed the White Sox, Rockies and Yankees as potential destinations. It seems to me, though, that his guess on what is going on isn’t any better than any of ours.
Oops, I forgot the link: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3512452&name=mlb_trade_deadline
Get something for Lohse while we can. He’ll be back to his normal self next year when he gets a big contract from someone.
espn first take is really riding this rumor hard. with the white sox mentioned, and their willingness to move orlando cabrera, does anyone else think the deal they could be looking at is cabrera plus the prospects to get a reliever?
would cabrera and a guy like maday or ohman be enough of an upgrade to move lohse? maybe you also get a prospect.
Will Cabrera be a Type A free agent after the season? Cabrera, a reliever, a prospect and two picks wouldn’t be a bad haul for Lohse, I guess.
i don’t know how it works, but he has to be the 2nd best shortstop available this off-season after furcal. i do know it doesn’t go by who is available, but by how you rank compared to all the players at your position in the game. has he been in the top 20% of shortstops for the last 2 years?
20% would be the top 6 SS in baseball – I’m not sure he makes that. I’d put Rollins, Reyes, Ramirez, Jeter, Tejada and Young ahead of him just off the top of my head. It might be close, though, because he would definitely fall in the next couple of guys, I’d think.
If they were to trade for cabrera and then sign him to an extension after he gets here, we wouldn’t have to give up any FA signing draft picks right?
nope. he would already be on the team, so you aren’t signing a free agent really. i guess you could say we lose the picks to ourself ;)
From mlbtraderumors.com … “All players (not just free agents) are put into one of five groups as seen below. Position is designated as the position at which the player appeared the most over the last two seasons.
Group 1: first basemen, outfielders, and designated hitters
Group 2: second basemen, third basemen, and shortstops
Group 3: catchers
Group 4: starters
Group 5: relievers
Here are the stat categories used for each of the five position groups.
1B/OF/DH: PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI
2B/3B/SS: PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI, Fielding percentage, Total chances at designated position
C: PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI, Fielding percentage, Assists
SP: Total games (total starts + 0.5 * total relief appearances), IP, Wins, W-L Percentage, ERA, Strikeouts
RP: Total games (total relief appearances + 2 * total starts), IP (weighted slightly less than other categories), Wins + Saves, IP/H ratio, K/BB, ERA ”
for what it’s worth about Lohse
Well, Ken Griffey, Jr. has approved the trade to the White Sox. I’m not sure what prospects are going back to Cinci, but the Sox had a pretty weak system to start with, so there might not be much to send back to the Cardinals if they do make a trade for Lohse.
CBS Sports.com reported that the Reds will receive pitcher Nick Masset and infielder Danny Richar in return
Yep, BP has the information here: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=970
Also, another lefty reliever is off the market as Arthur Rhodes goes to the Marlins for Gaby Hernandez.
No way I’d deal Lohse; Carp & Wainwright are still wildcards (to me, anyway), and Lohse is one guy the Cards can count on for a solid 6 innings darn near every time out.
Just trade for a lefty reliever, move Wellemeyer to the pen when AW returns, and the Cards have a pitching staff that can compete with Chicago and Milwaukee down the stretch–especially when Perez and Motte (I hope) are called up for September.
By the way, Motte’s last 10 appearances: 13.2 IP, 6 hits, 2 walks, and an unholy 24 strikeouts. Wouldn’t hurt my feelings if he replaced Jimenez in St. Louis immediately. (Does Dave Duncan really care if *relief* pitchers are flyball pitchers? He shouldn’t, of course, as efficiency/pitchcount issues are basically non-existent when it comes to bullpen guys, right?)
Bob, with TLR and DD love for having their relief guys go 2 innings when its obvious they suck in the 2nd inning pitch count does become a problem.
Straying off topic – Chris Perez was scored upon in 9 of his 23 appearances. His outings on 6-15, 6-29, and 7-6 he was scored upon is his second inning of work for that appearance. Now obviously we want Perez to be able to pitch 2 innings without giving up any runs. But this guy has most likely been pitching 1 inning at a time for the last several years with few exceptions. I don’t know what everyone else thinks of this but I think Perez has major league talent and could have success with the right coaching here.
http://community.post-gazette.com/blogs/pbc/archive/2008/07/31/pirates-turn-bay-focus-elsewhere.aspx
“Am told the Pirates asked Toronto for outfielder Travis Snider, the Jays’ No. 1 prospect, and pitcher Shaun Marcum, a starter who did not rank among Baseball America’s top 10 for that organization.”
Just out of curiosity, what would be the comparative to our organization? Rasmus and Boggs, maybe?
Marcum is 100 fold the better P than Boggs. He wasn’t in BA’s top 10 because he didn’t qualify. Right now he has a 3:1 K/BB ratio in the AL with an ERA of 3.22. He’d be the ace of our staff. Huntington is being worse than Littlefield.
Ah, the lack of qualification makes sense. I was pretty sure Marcum was better than your run of the mill guy.
They don’t really have to move Bay, though, do they? He’s signed through next year. Might as well ask the moon. Next year at this time (or in the offseason) they may have to lower their price.
Yah, Marcum (before the strained elbow) would definitely be our ace … maybe even now still. They are also asking the Rays for one of Price, Davis, or Hellickon … can’t remember which site i read that on, so can’t say how good the source is.
Of all the reasons mentioned above for trading Lohse, I do not see the paramount one IMO: His absurd agent. It is bad enough having to deal with that guy respecting Ankiel — why take on Lohse negotiations, too.
Looks like our farm system will stay in tact at the trade deadline. That’s a plus.
And the worst move of all may just be standing pat. I think the club needs to make a decision to either be buyers or sellers here. You have tradeable pieces in Lohse, and maybe an outfielder that could bring back something to build on for next year. Or if you think you are still in it for this year why – you’ve got to get another arm. You can’t wait for Wainwright to come back and shuffle your staff then. If the Cards bullpen goes through another rough stretch they could find themselves 6-8 games back in antoher week.
Why? The whole ‘rebuild while contending’ thing seems to be working out exactly as planned.
If Arthur Rhodes cost you Gaby Hernandez…then I have no problem with them standing pat.
There wasnt a legit, give the ball in the 9th and things are fine type of closer available.
So if you make a trade its for a Situational LHP that will net your 20 to 25IP the rest of the year.
I am not trading Tyler Herron (Gabby Hernandez Comp) for 25 innings of LH relief.
Tyler Herron might never pitch 25 innings in the major leagues, another solid arm in the pen could help us get into the playoffs. Once your in the playoffs anyone can win the WS. So why bank on the future of Tyler Herron which this year doesn’t look that great when you could pick up a piece that will put you in the playoffs.
Now, that being said I wouldn’t trade Garcia, Rasmus, Perez for a situational lefty because those guys really do have a shot at contributing for 5-7 years on the big league level but we have no clue on Herron.
The only OF I can see us trading is Shumaker. If skip can improve himself to hit even .250 with a .310-.330 OBP against lefties he would be a solid leadoff guy. But we can trade him now since we will have Rasmus next season and Jay/Jones the season after that.
I think our biggest pieces to trade if we want to do that would be Lohse and Shumaker and possibly Looper. But trading either one of those pitchers pisses off 97% of the fan base and we essentially give up on this season.
I see us standing pat and picking up a LOOGY from the independent league in our only move.
Manny to the Dodgers, Bay to the Red Sox, Chris Duncan to the …. yah, i wish
Herron might not pitch 25 innings, but he has a bunch more value then a 38 yr old LHP situational pitcher who is a free agent in 2 months.
Rhodes was so bad last year, most thought he was done and his .195 avg against vs LH’s is solid
But Villone and McClellan have held LH’s to a lower avg…..albeit just .01 pt lower.
Tyler Herron has more value to this org then 25 IP from LH reliever
Herron might not pitch 25 innings, but he has a bunch more value then a 38 yr old LHP situational pitcher who is a free agent in 2 months.
Can you explain this? If all Arthur Rhodes has to do is be reliable for the next 2 months to get the Cardinals to the post-season, how is that less valuable than Herron spending the rest of his career in the minor leagues?
Its called big picture and value.
Tyler Herron has more value in trade to this org then a 2 month rental of a 38 yr old LHP reliever.
I am quite surprised there are people around who are even considering this an option.
A bit of some inside info, not that Cards didn’t have anything to trade, they didn’t want to.
With Albert kind of almost not being himself lately, questions about pitchers returning in what form (effective or nt effective),there was thoughts that trades may be for no reason, and who to trade and what for what position.
So everyone is safe for now. I am glad that they moved Herron back to Palm Beach.
I wouldn’t rule out a waiver trade – that being said, the Cards are simply staying true to their organizational philosophy before the season.
Sure, I understand the premise of competing when you have the opportunity, but the fact remains that this team wasn’t expected to really compete for a playoff spot – so why not see if the simple return of Carpenter and Wainwright is enough to put a scrappy bunch over the top?
All indications are that prices on relievers was ridiculously high – and I wouldn’t be surprised if it stayed that way going forward for a few years (a good ‘pen arm can be hard to find) – so if the price was Anderson or Rasmus, etc – I’m glad they stayed put.
I believe that Anderson is bound to be traded sooner or later – but a LOOGY for this season was not the right place to make that move.