UCB Project: My Top Seven Cardinal Prospects
Posted by erik in Brett Wallace, Bryan Anderson, Chris Perez, Colby Rasmus, Daryl Jones, Jaime Garcia, Jason Motte, Jess Todd, Niko Vasquez, Pete Kozma
Cardinal70 recently asked me to participate in the latest “United Cardinal Blogger” collaboration, a project that I could not say no to. The project: Name your Top 7 Prospects, as inspired by our esteemed beat writer Mr. Derrick Goold. The regular minor league season just finished and it seems like it wasn’t long ago we were talking draft, and here we are already ranking players. Time flies.
NOTE: This is NOT our official list that we will be rolling out later. This is more or less my off the cuff rankings as things stand at the moment, and it’s still pretty fluid right now.
1. Colby Rasmus – Rough season or not, Colby’s tools have not gone anywhere. As rough as his start was, Colby finally started looking like the Razzle of old when he hit .333/.441/.535 for the month of June and was named to the Olympic national team, only to miss Beijing due to a sprained right knee. It was a rough season, but Colby still is a monstrous talent. As excited as I am about his offense, I am also pretty darn excited about his defense.
2. Brett Wallace – I’m getting about as sick about hearing about his defense (or lack thereof) as I am hearing the television talking heads gab about Sarah Palin. When you project to hit .300/.400/.520+ at the major league level, you can afford to be a minus ten at the hot corner. He is a lot more athletic than his pear shape dictates, and as I said, the fact that he can rake causes me to overlook the defensive liabilities.
3. Chris Perez -He’s had a few hiccups this year, but that’s not completely unexpected. Should continue to be a solid MLB closer…er, Duke of the Ninth.
4. Daryl Jones – If Jones played on an East Coast team, would prospect watchers be more excited about him? Think about how nuts people went over Austin Jackson last year when he turned his tantalizing tools into game usable skills. I’m not saying their breakouts are perfectly comparable, as Jones played mostly at the High A level, but Jones carried over his success in Double A. Hit a cumulative .316/.407/.483 line with 23 steals and profiles as a 20-20 outfielder in the majors.
5. Bryan Anderson – Young catchers can tire, and that is what I think happened to Anderson. He hit .388/.412/.525 in AA and was promoted in late April to Triple A. Before the all-star break in Memphis he hit .320/.396/.433; the second half: .212/.317/.282. Hopefully he grows in stamina and stops the trend of having second half swoons. What catches my eye is how Anderson considerably improved his defense. In 2006 he allowed 17 passed balls, in ‘07 he allowed 15, this past season only ten. He also caught 37.6% of would be basestealers, up from 26.8% last season. Matheny factor?
And here is where it gets dicey, at least for me, anyway. Garcia would have been my number five had it not been for him needing Tommy John. Now I’m not sure where to put him, being he will be of no use to the club until 2010.
6. Jason Motte – All I have seen so far is a pretty intimidating force on the mound, and from what little I’ve seen, his secondary stuff is not as bad as advertised, although I did read somewhere hearing that he had been developing a hard slider/cutter pitch. Secondary stuff or no, the man throws freakishly hard. He and Perez look to be a pretty nice 1-2 punch in the back of the bullpen, and it’s hard for me not to root for a guy who not long ago was struggling to hit as a catcher.
7. Niko Vasquez – It is interesting to see Vasquez leap over Kozma despite being picked in the third round and Kozma in the first last year. I sort of question myself putting Vasquez over Kozma here. Vasquez had a better pro debut than Kozma; for that matter he had a better pro debut than a lot of players drafted much higher than himself. I guess when I boil it all down, if you would ask me to take the less athletic SS with the power bat or the solid athlete with the ability to handle the bat but not hit for much power, I’d be a more apt to take the slugger.
Near misses: Todd, Kozma, Garcia. Todd is about as a near of a miss as I can think of given his great season.
Head on over to some of the other Cardinal blogs to read and discuss their rankings:
Be sure to tune into Bird Land later for his take on the project.
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I’m really surprised not to see Mortenson on this list, at least as a near miss. Is this just a TINSTAAPP manifestation?
Just remembering looking back at the DFR’s you would think even putting Kozma and Nico in the same sentence as prospects would be craze after Koz’s severe struggles after the stellar first month. But after looking at the stats you’re right. They do seem similar in prospect status. Nico hit well but with that .404 BABIP. Thanks for making me think, erik.
I would take Perez off the list but I think he might technically still be a “rookie” next year since he is projected to finish with 40 IP, though I think it will be closer to 50 but probably not over 50.
Rasmus, Wallace, Anderson, Jones, Motte, Mort, Kozma is my top 7. Todd outperformed him I still think Mort is the better prospect but I wouldn’t argue over Todd being ranked higher. Todd, Niko, Craig, Jay would be the next ones up. Looking over last years top rankings I am a bit disappointed that some of the top guys on those lists just didn’t have a good season at all.
I wouldn’t mind seeing a recap of how the Readers Top 25 faired.
I don’t know where to put this, but according to mlbtraderumors Lohse will be a Type A free agent. You probably already saw this, but having extra picks would be nice. Looper isn’t anything.
I was surprised not to see Freese make the list. Maybe he is getting a little old for prospect status but to completely skip AA and hit over 25 home runs and play solid D see pretty legit to me.
Todd, one of the blog sites, I think it was a Mariner’s one but not certain, has been working on the exact formula used for the ratings. They have had Lohse as a Type A FA for some time, which at first surprised me but supposedly there are a lot more factors involved than I originally thought. Shoot even Chris Duncan would still be a Type B FA if he was eligible.
Jason Motte #6? He has no secondary pitche(s). The sliders I saw he throw were not very good at all.
4 out of the top 5 are position players, that is pretty sweet! We still have Boggs, Mort, Walters, Todd, and McClellan who could all step up as SP at some point in the next two seasons.
Heck the back end of the pen next year could be Perez, Motte and McClellan that would be awesome to see our system produce results like that. That literally saves millions of dollars to be spent elsewhere or continued investment in Latin American
Bill- I like Mortensen, I think he was rushed and am a little concerned as to what that does to his development. He was hit pretty well, struggled with his control and command and just wasn’t getting groundballs like he was in the lower levels. And without a change up, he’s going to continue to struggle against lefties. I just wonder if the org is higher on this guy than they should be.
Tom- Later this week I hope to have a Niko vs. Kozma post, look at it from a scouting and statistical standpoint head to head.
mop- I like Freese quite a bit, not just for his bat but his glove. The fact that he jumped a level and adjusted well speaks nicely of him, but like you said, he is 25. What bugs me a little about Freese is his 38/111 BB/K ratio. That’s not dreadfully awful, but that’s not very good. He’s top 15 material for me, not top ten.
rasrick-The few I saw didn’t seem to bad, maybe my memory is failing me. I’ll have to look at his pitch f/x data. Still, 98 MPH is 98 MPH. He led all the minors in k/9. and it’s my off the cuff list, so…
maybe I’ll have him lower when the “official” rankings come out, but I really like what I’ve seen from him so far and I like what I see on paper, too.
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Question on the Anderson PB stat … was he splitting time at C in AA last year? Wasn’t he splitting time at C and DH this year with Johnson?
Erik
I’ve never seen any of these guys swing a bat or throw a pitch but my top seven would look a little different.
1. Perez- Has shown he can fill a crucial role at a big league level.
2. Rasmus- Failure to thrive in triple A nudges him down a slot.
3. Garcia- I assume you dropped him because of the arm issues but TJ surgery can add miles to the fast ball. Just have to wait another year.
4. Todd- You folks know these guys better than I but his success at so many levels makes me think his ceiling may be deceptively high.
5. Jones- God I love him. STill has much to learn but has come a long ways.
6. Anderson- Have to keep remembering he’s only 21.
7. Wallace- Good defense allows a team to get by with guys like Lohse, Wellemeyer et al in the rotation. Bad defense would sabotage a pitch to contact staff. If he can’t play 3b he’s just trade bait.
Of course Niko would be number eight. Can’t wait to get him up and working on Ripken’s iron man record.
I would unenthusiastically round out my top ten with Kozma and Mort. The first eight excite me.
If Wallace can make it as a fringe-average defender at third or in left, I think he brings more offensive potential than anyone in our system.
La Russa bemoaned not having “impact” prospects in our system comparable to Albert, but as a hitter, Wallace may be as close as we’ll ever get.
Within a couple years, at age 24 or 25, he could be contributing what Ankiel and Ludwick are giving us now in their peak late-20s years. His peak figures to be even higher than theirs.
Granted, he doesn’t have their speed or defensive ability, but I think the bat’s going to play for many years to come.
Does Wallace roughly compare with Ryan Braun? I am doing this off the cuff based on power hitting 3rd basemen that probably doesn’t have the D to stick there long term. If we have our own personal Braun I will not complain one bit.
I took a look at this from what does the organization need (MI Help, Relief Pitching), and how the players filled the need. Based on what I’ve seen from MO, he places too much value to trade his guys away (or anyone from the farm for that matter).
1. C. Rasmus – Even without being a need position, his skills shine through.
2. L. Lynn – From what I hear, he has the best chance to become a solid starter.
3. N. Vasquez – Need and power, also has a nice average.
4. P. Kozma – Need and skills.
5. C. Perez – I can’t think of anything we need more than a closer right now.
6. J. Todd – If he can stick as a starter I have him higher.
7. D. Jones – Think Rasmus light.
8. C. Mortenson – I think he can be a good RP in the majors, eventually.
9. M. Boggs – May make a solid innings eater some day.
10. J. Garcia – Could be higher if he was healthy.
B. Anderson misses out because he is overvalued by Mo, and has no use in this organization. B. Wallace falls into the same category, This team is built on solid defense, and first base is locked up for a long time (I hope).
One major difference between Braun and Wallace is speed. Braun stole 15 bases his rookie season in 113 games. The thought was that Braun could hit 40 home runs and steal 20+ bases. So far this season he has 12 SB is 130+ games. I think as the years go by Braun will steal fewer and fewer but still be a good base runner. Wallace won’t ever steal more than a handful of give away type steals.
Prediction:
Spots 1 and 2 will be swapped by mid-season 09
While I like Jones and Niko to no end, these are very small samples of success…and guys like Freese, Craig and J. Jay have a couple seasons of solid progress under their belt with decent profiles (AC consistent gap power/glove; JJ’s power spurt and OF attributes, DF w/ quick bat, power). I guess I just don’t want to be Hoffpauir’ed again. One season a gem does not make. Hopefully Jones is indeed a complete stud and I’ll gladly eat my apprehension one word at a time.
Pitching wise, I like Mort’s potential in a rotation under a Dave Duncan…and if Dunc flies the coup, myeh. And I keep having this crazy idea that PJ Walters will make the big league roster and contribute more then Boggs will. No statistical reason to back that statement up. :-\ Along the more beaten path, I think Todd next season will walk the same path McClellan did this year.
Motte is a one-trick pony that I’m afraid will be exposed once the book is out…which usually doesn’t take too long. Again, I like the moxy of the kid and that sexy 98 flashing on the Fox gun…but those fastballs are straight as an arrow.
Overall, this system continues to provide intrique and there are actually quality options in the top 5. Not many clubs can say that. Good luck to Mo, as he needs to turn/sell the OF/3B jam of assets into alternative equity. Should be interesting.
my top 15
1. Rasmus – I’d project him for .290 25 hr’s 85 RBI and 25 steals with above avg. D
2. Wallace – I think he’ll be an absolute beast at the plate regardless of position.
3. Jones – Future leadoff hitter. If he stays on track he could be .300 15-20 HR 75 RBI 30 steals
4. Perez – I think he’ll post up Bobby Jenks type numbers with more walks – he’ll have some growing pains next season, but Tony has GOT TO LET HIM WORK THROUGH THEM!
5. Todd
6. Anderson
7. Craig
8. Boggs
9. Freese
10. Lynn
11. Jay
12. Kozma
13. Vazquez
14. Mortenson
15. Motte
PJ, I think the guy in position 1 will be ineligible by that part of the season, just my prediction.
Hugo – what do you mean?
I think Rasmus will get enough ABs before mid season 09 to be ineligible for the ROY in 2010
1) Wallace
2) Rasmus
3) Brian Anderson
4) Daryl Jones
5) Mortensen (only if Duncan stays, otherwise, he’s around #10)
6) Motte
7) Todd
8) Jay
9) Freese
10) Craig
11) Greene
12) S. Robinson
13) Steve Hill
14) Henley
15) Nico
16) Kozma
17) Fiske
18) Additon
19) Castillo
20) Descalso
21) Samuel
22) Salas
23) Lynn
24) Fick
25) Jose Martinez
26) Garceau
27) Walters
28) Solano
29) Hoffpauir
30) Diapoules
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