The bright side: Cards moving up in the draft
Posted on September 13th, 2008 by erik in 2009 MLB DraftWatching the Cardinals splat back to earth has been a rather revolting development, but if there is a positive, it is that they are moving up the draft board. I know the draft is months away from happening, but with the conclusion of college summer leagues and some high school showcase games, the draft picture has got a little clearer. Keith Law already has posted his Top 60 draft prospects to hold us over until the spring.
Right now, if I have things figured out right the Cards will pick 19th overall if the season were to end today. Judging by the looks of things given injuries and the general poopy play we are seeing lately, they may even get a higher pick.
Here is Law’s top players, 15-22, for what it is worth. Who knows how the general consensus will shake out, and obviously a lot can change between now and June:
15. Tyler Matzek LHP Capistrano Valley H.S., Mission Viejo, Calif.
16. Kentrail Davis LF Univ. of Tennessee
17. Beau Wright LHP Los Alamitos H.S., Los Alamitos, Calif.
18. Jake Marisnick OF Riverside Poly H.S., Riverside, Calif.
19. Ryan Wheeler 1B/3B Loyola Marymount
20. Jason Stoffel RHP Univ. of Arizona
21. Randal Grichuk OF Lamar Consolidated H.S., Rosenberg, Texas
22. Josh Phegley C Indiana Univ.
And here’s my quick-n-dirty take on the seven:
- I would absolutely LOVE Matzek, but I think chances are slim he will be available. He throws 91-94 MPH fastball, has a plus curveball, a slider with good potential and a change. Baseball America named him the best prospect of the Aflac Game and many consider him to be the best high school player in this draft.
- I would not have minded seeing the Cardinals draft Davis a couple of years ago. He was Team USA’s best position player. He could be a tough sign as a draft-eligible sophomore. He’s drawn some comparisons to Kirby Puckett physically, which is to say he is short and has a rather large um, …posterior. BA says “He is an electric offensive player with explosive bat speed and running ability.” Scouts praise his makeup.
- Beau Wright is another projectable high school lefty with a three pitch mix. Throws 89-91 fastball and a big yakker with advanced command.
- Marisnick has physicality that scouts “can dream on”, and has some raw power, good speed and a throwing arm that can handle RF.
- We already have Wallace, so I don’t see the point in drafting Wheeler.
- I think it says something that Stoffel was Arizona’s closer last year, even in the presence of two first round pitchers Daniel Schlereth and Ryan Perry. Throws 91-95 with a very nice curveball. The question is will he be starting this spring, or closing?
- Randal Grichuk is another high school right fielder. He’s described as “wiry strong” with great bat speed and plenty of arm.
- Living in Big Ten country, Josh Phegley is someone I am hoping to see in person this upcoming spring. He’s a catcher that absolutely mashed last season, hitting .438/.507/.746. I’m not interested in seeing if he can hit, however. Obviously, he can. I want to see if he can catch at the next level, and not everyone is certain that he will be able.
Law also ranks St. Charles county’s Jake Turner at # 30. Another name to keep on eye on is Brad Boxberger, who seems to fit the Cards M.O. He was throwing 94-95 up in the Cape and has the makings of a plus slider. He’s expected to be USC’s #1 starter. Here is a video of him in action.
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I know I’m critized around my friends for thinking the same way, but I totally started thinking best draft after a game a while ago. Heck, thinking the same thing about the rams and it’s been 1 game.
After tonight they might think about shutting down Wainwright for the year. I still pray that Mike Minor or Davis slide down to the Cards who I guess will be picking from 17- 23 range. Getting Minor would be coup in my opinion. But they say next years draft is going to be one of the weakest in recent years. So they’re gonna have to rely on their scouts a little more next year. So my expectations are lowering every second.
Cards have tons of cash to spend, and there is what seems like an above average amount of Type A free agents on the market this year, And the team has holes so I know you guys don’t want to hear it, but I think the pick is as good as gone!
Memphis, I was just thinking along the same lines. I thinks the Cards finally have enough minor-league depth that they can take a gamble and go after a Type A free agent.
That, or they can make a trade with two or three of their top prospects.
Both possibilities are like roller coasters — scary and exciting at the same time and you just hope at the end of the ride no one has wet pants.
The last time we sacrificed draft picks we ended up with Izzy and Tino, so we got that one half right.
And the last time we sacrificed significant prospects we got Mulder, and again we got it half right — if it had been Daric Barton for Mulder we would’ve all been okay with it.
Whatever we do, this offseason is the time to do it. We have Albert, Carp, and Wainwright signed for the next three years. With a healthy Carp we just need a shortstop and a bullpen lefty. With an iffy Carp we need those two things plus a starter.
(Not that any of this is news to anyone reading this …)
Not to throw a damper on the post but I suspect that Memphis and Schuler are right about the first draft pick. There will be justifiable pressure on the organization to get some immediate help. Hopefully they’ll make wise decisions and not overpay someone plus lose the draft pick (s). We may also see some top prospects traded for help (Colby, Boggs, Kozma for Tulo?). What I really hope is that we don’t do both. If we trade a few of our top prospects and lose a draft pick or two our system could go back into mediocre territory.
Whatever happens it is always good to have a higher draft slot. I think we forget sometimes that that can be important all through the draft, not just through the first round for the team to get the players they want.
I doubt that the big acquisition (and yes I do believe there will be 1) will be a free agent. We are playing with a ton of solid trade chips (Anderson, Mather, Ludwick/Ankiel, Todd, Motte). I think Mo will make a big splash through the trade market (Roy Halladay anyone??)
Why would Toronto ever trade Roy Halladay?
Even if we lose a pick, we may still get one for Lohse if he pitches well enough down the stretch.
If only Izzy had pitched well this year…..
i have now actually heard/read this a few times and it still makes no sense to me. why would colorado trade tulo? he’s young, a stud and the contract extension he signed isn’t that steep. can anyone elaborate on how serious colorado is on this? just bs rumors or what? i would hate to see us lose colby, but a stud, young shortstop might be one of the FEW exceptions i could live with.
Commence Fan Tanking
hey guys if tehy lose enough games and get to pick 16 or better isn’t the first round pick protected?
tom – picks 15 or better are protected. even then, if we were to sign a type A, we would lose our 2nd round pick
Lohse and Looper are both Type B’s. So we have that going for us…
Perhaps if we lose both of them, the FO will consider giving away our 1st round pick for a Type A somewhere because we’d be getting a bunch of supplemental picks.
I would be surprised if Kyle Lohse weren’t a Type A free agent. Woody Williams was a type A after the 2005 and 2006 season. He went 9-12 with a 4.85 ERA in 159.2 innings in 2005 and 12-5 with a 3.65 ERA in 145.1 innings in 2006.
BTW, its also likely that Russ Springer will be a Type A free agent with the past two seasons he’s had. But there maybe zero chance of him playing with a different organization if he even decides to return for another year.
According to that detroit blog that decoded the free agent types, Lohse is a type A.
Also, the more I think about it, would it be so bad to lose our first rounder? Take last year for example, say we don’t have pick #13 and instead our first pick is a supplemental or second rounder. Would the draft have looked so bad at the time if we had ended up with Tim Melville instead, given that some of us were looking at him #13 anyway? As long as we’re willing to pay a guy #13 overall money, there is a decent chance someone will fall to us, right? The more I think about it, go ahead, Mo, get us a Type A, “pretend” we’re picking in the first round, ignore slot money and get whatever talent is available. I might change my mind tomorrow… I just hope Lohse closes it out at Type A status.
Come on out and check out Phegley…yeah, you’re right…he can hit (and mashed is the correct verb usage!).
Can he catch at the next level? Many will want to know the answer to the same question come this next Spring season.
I believe he’s got all the right tools, a level head, and enough drive to steer the his team to a winning season.
See ya at Sembower field!
GO HOOSIERS!
Just to throw my two cents in the “is Kyle Lohse a Type A” conversation, I think he has a fair chance of getting Type A status. I talked about his chances using a more subjective analysis on my blog, but there’s also the Detroit Tigers blogger that “cracked” the Elias rankings and determined him to be a Type A also. The suitors for Kyle will most likely be bigger-market spenders (Yankees? Dodgers?) so there’s a good possibility that we could stay in the first round even if we sign a Type A free agent. I’d like to see Kyle get at least one more win to be sure, though.
http://www.rockinthered.com/2008/07/is-kyle-lohse-type-free-agent.html
Well as soon as Texas or Arizona jumps us in the standings, we will get a protected first round pick. The remaining schedules:
Cards: 5 Reds, 3 Cubs, 4 Dbacks
Rangers: 2 Tigers, 6 Angels, 3 Athletics
Diamondbacks: 3 Giants, 3 Rockies, 4 Cards. 3 Rockies
Indians: 2 Twins, 3 Tigers, 4 Red Sox, 3 White Sox
We are 4 games up on Texas, 4.5 games up on Arizona, and 5 games up on Cleveland.
I can’t see Cleveland passingus with that brutal schedule. Diamondback schedule is relatively easy, but the series with the Cards will probably be the determing factor. The Rangers face a pretty tough schedule as well. The best bet is for the DBacks to pass us.
Realistically, we split the rest of the games with the Reds and maybe take one from Chicago. That would leave us at 82-76 with the D’Back series being the deicding factor.
As for Lohse, he’s got at least two more starts projected against Cincinnati and Diamondbacks. He could pitch the season finale against Cincinnati. Both of them have pretty tameable offenses. He’s projected to go up against Edinson Volquez on 9/18, Randy Johnson on 9/23 and if he pitches in the season finale it would probably be against Edinson Volquez again on 9/28. It’s a pretty tough matchup, but Lohse dueled well last time against Volquez. Assuming he doesn’t give up more than an average of 3 runs/game and goes about 7 innings, I could easily see him attain a “Type A” status.
The real question, would someone pay him the money and give up a pick? We would be stupid not to offer him arbitration, which he will decline. The teams I could see interested in would be: White Sox, Phillies, Astros, Yankees, and Blue Jays.
Competing against Lohse on FA Market would be: C.C. Sabathia, Ben Sheets, Derek Lowe, A.J. Burnett (option), Andy Pettite, and Mike Mussina.
Both Mike and Andy are either Yankee or retirees.
The favorite for C.C. has to the Yankees. Sheets will likely return to Milwaukee if they shell out enough money, otherwise he’ll probably be a Philly.
AJ Burnett will likely opt out and go the highest bidder, probably Philly if Sheets resigns in Milwaukee. Other possilbities are Astros and White Sox. Derek Lowe will depend on whether he is “Type A” or “Type B”. If he’s “Type A” he’ll likely be a Dodger next year and if he is “Type B”, who knows where he goes.
That leaves at least one of Phillies, Astros, White Sox, and Blue Jays, three at the max.
Phillies: They have Cole Hamels and Joe Blanton at the top. Brett Meyers is still in the rotation. Jaime Moyer is getting up there in age.
Astros: They have Roy Oswalt up at the top and not much behind them. This late run may give the Stros false hope.
White Sox: Mark Buerhle is a FA I believe and will probably go somewhere else.. John Danks and Gavin Floyd are probably the only two players guaranteed a spot in the rotation next year.
Blue Jays: They have Roy Halladay at the top with a couple of good, young prospects figured to be in the rotation next year.
IF all my predictions and projection went as I thought they could, we’d wind up with the 15th and 20th or 25th ish picks. That would probably get us one stud prospect in the draft and one very good draft pick along with the supplemental pick we’d also get from the Lohse deal.