Adam Reifer ranked top pitcher in the NY Penn by BA, Lynn snubbed
Posted by erik in Adam Reifer, Lance LynnJeff Luhnow said Reifer could be the sleeper of the 2007 draft, so far that prediction looks pretty good. BA had very high praise for Reifer, rating him the best pitcher in the league and the third best prospect in the league. Scouts are extremely high on his fastball/slider combo. His fastball reportedly was topping out at 99 and sitting around 96, 97. His slider is a plus pitch and he has the demeanor you look for in a closer.
What is shocking to me is there was no love shown for Lance Lynn. I mean, Danny Farquhar? How is someone who profiles as a middle reliever better than Lynn? The only thing I could think of is the piggyback system was Lynn’s doom in the rankings; maybe he didn’t qualify due to a lack of innings. If that’s the reason, then no big deal.
Just a note: I hate to be a wet blanket because personally think info is meant to be shared and I’m not really a fan of pay-per content, but BA does have copyrights on their chat and all their other subscriber content. I would ask that content would please not be retransmitted on the site in the comments.
UPDATE: I guess the chat isn’t subscriber only, so I don’t feel bad cutting and pasting this question from some weird Cardinal fan upset about Lynn being snubbed.
Q: Erik from Cedar Rapids, IA asks:
Thanks for the chats, this is one of my favorite times of the year to be a subscriber to BA. I was wondering however: Why no Lance Lynn? Seems like he’d be a shoe-in to me for this list.
A: Aaron Fitt: Lynn did not pitch enough to qualify for the list, but I’ve always been a fan of his at Ole Miss. Kind of like Brad Holt, his strength his is ability to command his heavy fastball, but his secondary stuff is fringy.
So I think he would have ranked if he had thrown more. For what it’s worth, KLaw gave his curve a 50 but future grade a 60. One thing I like about Law is, he does his own evaluating and you can decide. BA quotes these mystery scouts, so you can’t really evaluate the evaluator.
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I have a question about copyrights if anyone can help me. If something, like the chat logs, are publicly available for a certain period of time (i.e. the duration of the chats) can you really claim someone is breaking your copyright by posting what they read during that chat? It is sort of like a person bringing a video camera to a baseball game. Their copy of the game isn’t copyrighted even though the MLB transmission is.
What I am getting at is: Is it ok for someone to participate in the chat and copy and paste certain questions during the chat? To me that seems legal but I don’t know for sure.
Either way, congrats to Reifer. I would also guesss that Lynn being promoted to QC had a bit to do with him not getting ranked. He had 6 games (4 starts and 2 “releif”) at Batavia and 2 games at QC.
I don’t know Hugo. I would like to share more but for conscience sake I won’t until I know for sure. I would think if it’s copyrighted, then no sharing. It is a bummer, but I want to do the right thing.
I’m gonna ask an “expert” i know and get their 2 cents.
If I happy to see my Lawyer friend I will ask him too, it is an interesting thing that I hadn’t thought about before. IT Law is so new and still being fleshed out.
OK, I talked to someone and I think I understand it now. I can share a little bit. Here’s a couple of blurbs that caught my attention:
“best pure arm and stuff in the league”
fastball rated 80 at times on 20-80 scale, sits 96-97, tops at 99 and on back to back outings 91-95. Slider @ times a 70, 90-93 with tilt. has an average change up.
What I don’t want is just direct copy and pastes, or a total repackaging of what was said.
Scout.com just interviewed Reifer last month. Check it out
http://74.125.45.104/search?q=cache:Aab5X6SjuwoJ:stlcardinals.scout.com/2/779565.html+Adam+Reifer&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=3&gl=us&client=firefox-a
wait…so BA ranked reifer’s fastball as an 80 and his slider as a sometimes 70?
that is fantastic
The fact that he could get his slider up to 93 is incredible. Heck, Wellemeyer is the only starter that can keep his fastball at 93. Everyone else is pretty much sitting 89-91, occassionally touching 92-93.
I’m guessing Riefer will start next year at AA? In 2010, we could have a pretty nasty, nasty, nasty bullpen… Perez, Motte, Riefer, and Samuel all throwing pure gas. All but Motte have plus-plus breaking pitches as well, and Motte’s will probably be average by then.
I’ve seen Lynn pitch several times when he was at Ole Miss, his secondary pitches are well above “fringy”. His curve was Wainwright-like the last time I saw him. I think he’s gonna be a Aaron Harang type in 3 or 4 years.
Lance Lynn = Aaron Harang…….nicely done, first time I have seen that anywhere and its a nice comp. I always use Kevin Milwood b/c of the more riding fastball then sinking fastball, but Harang is a solid call.
I am admittedly a fan of Lynn b/c I believe his stuff will play better vs the wood and his mechanics and solid pitch ability makes for a nice foundation.
Lynn’s prob in my eyes was much about wearing down then anything, if he can regain his Soph. year form he is a legit #2 type of starter in my eyes, he was sitting 92 to 94mph with life on the fastball and 3 at least usable offspeed pitches.
Tightening up of the slider, maybe making it a cutter could do some good for him. His pitches seem to float too much on him, for a guy with such a strong base to throw from you would think he would get on top of his pitches more, that is probably something that can be tweaked and improved.
Solid stuff guys, should be an interesting offseason with all the moves, I just hope they are smart, dont panic and realize trading for proven talent is fine, but value for value in return.
Dont trade Colby Rasmus…that is my new bumpersticker
I am Picklefork and I approve this message!
Baseball America is going to consult the opinions of many, such as the managers in the league, and scouts, who scout NYPa guys as amatuers, or who scouts who cover the minors. This, actually, is what makes a BA evaluation pretty good, because its not just one guy. Its a big America out there and it takes a lot of people to scout it. Yes, there is opacity, sometimes to protect honesty. To get a candid opinion from a scout, he is not going to want his employing team to see his name in print. Opacity can give shelter to bad opinions of course, but its also useful to bear in mind it gives equal protection to good ones.
Kieth Law cannot cover amateurs and minor leaguers across the entire country, no single person could, and he has columns to write and these must take time.
But Kieth can attend a select few games such as in the Arizona League, so he can say he has personally observed some top prospects, to boost his credibility with readers; he can subscribe to Baseball America himself and some other publications, read the work others have done, and then write up his own columns. Its probably done by lots of columnists. Each can draw on the work of others.
Because an organization with a lot of people, Baseball America can poll the managers and quietly ask scouts their opinions. This is why BA is doing original, value-adding reporting, even if sources are protected. Kieth knows a lot about baseball, but he’s also like Bernie, he’s a columnist and entertainer, who simply cannot do not original, investigatory reporting on amateurs and minor leaguers (unless he has hired a bunch of scouts who report to him and who he does not credit).
I dont follow John Sickels much, but he probably looks carefully at a lot of statistics, for a lot of guys, over many years, and does a bit of fieldwork. So he probably does value-adding, original work.
Some more about where information comes from.
In general, in loads of fields not just baseball, many will popularize or repackage the work of others. If there is a good article in the Financial Times, another reporter could see it and write about a similar topic for the Wall Street Journal, just to make up an example. If someone only reads the WSJ, then the reader thinks, wow, great article, since not aware of an article that inspired it. Time does a popular cover story, maybe Newsweek will do something similar a few weeks later. An original article gets published in Science, then more layman’s publications on science will report a less technical summary, to translate to a more general audience.
On amateurs, the first line of collecting information is the Major League Scouting Bureau’s assessments. These get pretty wide distribution nowadays. They are a source to Baseball America, many journalists, including the MLB-web site columnists who write about the June draft.
The guy who used to write for the Sprinfield Mo paper covering the AA team got hired by Baseball America. He may be an example of good baseball journalists who can get picked up by BA. BA reporters have even been hired by some teams to serve as scouts themselves, because they learn so much from following amateur and minor league ball. (Journalists are smart, no reason they cannot learn how to scout.) So BA can assign reporters to cover the amateur draft; take the MLB scouting combine reports; then talk to scouts working for teams who may tell them a bit more; talk to college coaches and others; and come out with the best pre-draft reporting, as original work, on a national basis, hundreds and hundreds of players, often with a lot of info.
With this kind of informational foundation, any number of TV oriented, celebrity reporters can look at this info and communicate their own stories too, about the best amateurs. But these guys, like Jonathan Mayo, are drawing on a lot of other sources. Folks like this cannot do all the time consuming research on what is reported, any more than a tv news anchor can go out and cover all the stories.
Law has been in Toronto’s front office. He has been involved in the game and probably is a smart guy. He can go to showcase amateur events or the AFL and some settings, and report on some future prospects, just like you can go to the Quad Cities and observe players there. He has a bigger travel budget, so he can cover more ground than you. But I would not have more confidence in his opinions, because they happen to be marketed under his brand name. He could potentially take the BA opinions on elite prospects and improve on a few or add his perspective, based on his experiences within the game. This could prove interesting. But its hard to see how one columnist can do original and superior reporting on amateurs and minor leaguers, because there are so many of them.
Beau:
First of all, I know it’s terribly hard to spell a five-letter name, but it’s K-E-I-T-H.
Second, you need to stop talking. I do not, have not, and will not “take the BA opinions on elite prospects and improve on a few” or anything of the sort. That would be completely unethical. I see a lot more players each year than you seem to realize, and I have neither the need to cheat by using other publications as sources nor the lack of scruples required to do so.
Thanks for the heads-up, Erik. It’s a shame that some people use the anonymity of the Internet as a cover for borderline libel.
Keith
Keith Law comin in throwin elbows. Thank you for gracing us with your appearance on our quaint little blog.
Beau should be banned or at the very least slapped on the hand for that kind of grandstanding. Not exactly sure why he went off like that, but I am glad to see Law defend himself. Saying Keith Law is like Bernie was where I stopped reading…
does anyone else think it is really cool that a dude who is on tv a lot reads the blog that we all know and love
makes me feel special
What got under Beau’s skin?
He’s basically calling Keith a hack, which is completely ridiculous. If I remember correctly, Keith was pretty high on Lynn around draft time, so I’m not sure why Beau would be bashing his opinions.
Keith has been a great friend of the blog, and I think it’s pretty cool that he’s been willing to stop by and chat with us.
Frankly I was speechless, so I called upon Keith to defend himself if he so chose to. Like some of you said, Keith has always been a friend to the blog and I couldn’t believe some of the things Beau was saying. You can say you don’t like someone or that you disagree with someone, but to smear someone like that is pretty low.
I like BA, and I like Keith. But to accuse him of stealing from BA, well… I’m just not going to tolerate that sort of disrespect here.
Hello everyone!
I can understand that Lynn did not have enough appearances to make the list. But I thought Scott Gorgen would be somewhere in that 20. Keith Law—-if you are still with us, what say you on Mr. Gorgen?
Casey
Casey,
I had a chance to see Gorgen pitch against LSU in the Super Regionals and he just isn’t a scout’s dream. He’s short, filled out and throws 85-87(at least against LSU).
On the plus side he has a decent curveball, I wouldn’t go as far to say its above average but its not bad. Also, his changeup was one of the best pitches in the draft. Its nasty.
But scouts probably aren’t going to give too much love to a 5’10″ soft tossing righty even with the nasty changeup.
The other thing that Beau missed, and that Keith didn’t mention, is that the more well-known you are as a reporter, the more sources you get who come to you with confidential information. You hear things that other reporters don’t hear. You get tips about players who might not be on other reporters’ radar yet.
But the bottom line is this: Keith shares his observations and offers opinions and evaluations. If they prove inaccurate over time, that damages his credibility. If he’s right, people like us pay more attention as time goes on.
There aren’t many columnists who continue to make a living despite being wrong more often than not. And most of them write about politics.
Hugo, I’m a magazine editor. I’ve been out of town for a few weeks so I don’t know if anyone will even read a comment for an older post.
As far as I know, there is nothing wrong with re-posting an entire Baseball America chat as long as you attribute the source and don’t try to pawn it off as your own (which would be difficult to do, in this case).
Since the entire chat log doesn’t apply to Cardinals fans, it is completely above board to copy-and-paste applicable questions and answers here as long as Baseball America is attributed.
Some publishers may have their own more stringent rules but the only thing they can really do is ask you to remove it. I doubt Baseball America falls into that category because I’m sure they rather be known as “the premiere source of minor league baseball information” instead of a bunch of jerks.
Erik, I wouldn’t worry about copying segments of anything you find on the Internet as long as you attribute the source. Keep up the good work.
Is Mitch Harris is definite no for the Cards org? I have heard conflcting reports
I’m thinking he is a 99.99% no.
erik – any reasoning for your thinking? It seems logical to me that talks would not heat up with him until May since there is no deadline until June. It also makes sense to wait because by April/May we will have a new administration and it is possible new policies on this matter.
I don’t expect any changes to be made, no matter who is Prez. Not to get into politics, but we are a nation at war and I don’t expect that to change very soon, no matter what the politicians may say. Therefore, he’s gonna have to fulfill his obligation.
Don’t want to get into politics or the war either, but the Lions football player who got called back to the Army really drives home the point that sports take a back seat to the military now. Even as a Marine, I still thought players like Mike Anderson and David Robinson were given more of a shot because of the military.
Now it is a whole new ballgame, literally. The world has changed, and I really think we will be ‘at war’ for quite a long time. Thank god for the Cardinals and other distractions, because I needed every one to get through three Iraq tours.
3 tours in Iraq…hats off to you, my friend. Thank you for serving this country.
I’d love for Harris to be able to sign, but, sadly, I just don’t see it happening.
During my time as a Navy Officer I had a front row view of the Napolean McCallum situation. Trust me, the politics involved are beyond belief and include lobbyist (both paid and not paid)m goverenrs, Fortune 500 CEO’s and congressional delegations and the decision will end up being made by the President himself. I can’t say I know what the outcome of the decision will be but I can guarantee you it is not a black and white simple decision as you make it out to be. If I had to guess, he’ll have to do 2 years active only (the fall back compromise) which makes signing him plausible.
I agree with UncleBuck. An 85-87 mph fastball is not gonna cut it in the bigs.
Now, if he’s 5’10″ and can throw like Billy wagner, or other vertically challenged fast-arms…….then he’s in the biz!!