Jeff Luhnow has been in charge of 4 drafts to date beginning in 2005. During that time, it’s hard to argue that any has been as singularly successful as the first which provided 3 of the top 4 position players (Rasmus, Anderson, Jones) in the farm system and, prior to a balky elbow, the top pitching prospect (Garcia). While the farm system is certainly more well regarded than anytime in recent memory, the fruition of those labors has yet to fully materialize.
The media in St. Louis has perpetuated the notion that the farm system has become an end in and of itself rather than a system to enhance the major league team. Notions, however misguided or not, that the club would rather hoarde prospects rather than making a trade to upgrade the team in the near term abound. The pressure will mount during the offseason for the Cardinals to make a real and tangible upgrade to the team, likely via trade. Questions will be raised about the value of “unproven prospects” versus a “veteran”. Vagueries and unquantifiable qualities will be attributed to both parties over the winter. Fans will agree and disagree but the commotion is likely to be loud.
A lot of the discussion has and will continue to surround Colby Rasmus, the Cardinals’ top prospect for 3 years running. Can he contribute at the major league level? Was 2008 a fluke or a sign that he’s over-rated by prsopecniks drinking the Cardinal propaganistic kool-aid? What can he garner in a trade? Should we trade him? Does TLR hate him? Does Rasmus hate the ballclub? How many licks does it take to get to the center of a tootsiepop?
Regardless of the immediate ramifications of the discussion during the offseason, Luhnow (and the Cardinals’ front office as a whole) might want to be careful about the framework they deliver the “prospects are good for you” message. They risk creating, if they haven’t already, a litmus test with Colby as the thin colored strip of paper and TLR’s Cardinal team as the solvent. The discussion, to date, has been less about the farm system as a whole and more about what potential that Colby Rasmus has. Players like Chris Perez and Jason Motte can and will help mitigate this myopic view of the farm system but it’s possible that the idea is ingrained deeper than a few relievers can expunge.
Should Colby Rasmus fail, especially in an undeniable and spectacular way, it is likely to widen several rifts surrounding the organization. The fanbase will feel, wrongly, misled and return to the mantra that the club is “cheap”. It’s also possible that TLR will be emboldened by the collapse and renew pressure for a “proven” commodity. We’re still just a year removed from Walt Jocketty being fired — remember that, he was F-I-R-E-D — due to internal schisms within the organization. The belief that those schisms are healed by a single personnel move is naive. The failure of the system’s top prospect would likely re-ignite the same disagreements that caused turmoil within the front office and fodder for local writers.
None of these are a justifiable reason for trading Rasmus during the offseason if the club truly assesses his value as a future perennial all-star. They are, however, reasons that can be used to rationalize a “cover your a__” trade in an attempt to quell the “prospects are useless”/”win now” crowd. Rightly or wrongly, Rasmus has come to symbolize the prospect strategy of the new regime.
Rightly or wrongly, this has repercussions.
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I certainly hope that the Cards don’t overreact to fan base reactions when making or not making trades involving prospect(s). I am tired of hearing about the “cheapness” of Bill Dewitt when he continuously (at least to date) has fielded teams with a combined salary of $100 to $110 million.
Great article Azru,
I believe Colby will be an all star type player in the Majors but it probably would be better for the 2009 cardinals if he were traded for either a pitcher or a SS. We need to sign Ankiel and Ludwick to three year deals and hang onto Schumaker and let him platoon with Mather. Rasmus would be better served playing somewhere else if we need a few players because he is the only one who will get us an impact player in return. If Rasmus stays he will spend the year in AAA so he won’t help the 2009 team. If we trade him we will get some help for the 2009 team.
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What if the Rays win the World Series? Heck even now their success versus their payroll helps justify the strategy that the team is using. I promise you that if the Rays win the series we will hear interviews with Luhnow and Mo talking about how, “They are a talented young team that will be together for years to come. We are trying to incorprate more of there model.”
I think a Rays win will make a difference in the argument.
The other half of the coin is that Mo has to be active this year on the trade front. We need to flip some outfield talent. The type of players we get in return will be almost as telling as the players we trade. If we pick up minor league or pre-arb players then the game plan would appear to stay in place. If we are chasing vets then we will never be rid of LaRussa.
trading rasmus just to help for 2009 is extremely short sighted…if you can justify that trading him would help us over the next 4-5 years, then it should be considered…but trading an “all-start type player” just to help the 2009 cardinals is a mistake
basically, unless you can trade him for a tim lincecum type, then keep him(and play him!!!)
i’m not sold on ludwick, he had a great year, but i’m not sure it is sustainable…if he has a similar season next year, then consider signing him to a 3-year deal
i think ankiel should be traded this offseason(or at the trade deadline if we are not in contention, which i think we will be) for some pitching help/prospects…unless we know he is going to be a type A after next year, or know that he will reesign for a home team discount(remember, he is a boras client) Mo should really consider spinning him