Rough on the Diamond
Posted on October 16th, 2008 by Aaron in Adam Ottavino, Brad Furnish, Clayton Mortensen, David Kopp, Eddie Degerman, Gary Daley, Mark McCormickHey y’all. Nope, still can’t pull it off. Oh well. I thought I would give it a shot, seeing as how I haven’t been around here much at all for quite a while.
You know, I was actually planning a post today taking that long-promised look at the Cincinnati farm system, but something erik put in his GCL wrap just a couple of days ago changed my mind. And I quote:
I don’t want to pick on Gary Daley any more than I already have, but when was the last time you’ve seen a 5/32 K/BB ratio? From a 22 year old in rookie ball? From a third round pick? That’s just…wow.
That got me to thinking. Over the past few years, the Cardinals have shown a proclivity for drafting a certain type of player, a certain draft demographic, if you will. I’m speaking, of course, of the raw college pitcher. A bit of an odd breed, to be honest. Traditionally, teams would draft one of two ways. If they wanted upside and talent, they would draft a raw high school kid. If they wanted experience and polish, they would draft a guy out of college, who was much closer to being a finished product. The Cardinals, however, have bucked that bit of conventionality by taking pitchers out of college programs who have had relatively poor results, often are considered very raw, and generally just need quite a lot of work.
Anyway, I immediately decided that, rather than discuss the Cincinnati Reds and their prospects, I would take a look at some of the pitchers that the Cardinals have taken out of this specific segment of the draft, and see if they’ve had any success at it. Chris Lambert- Lambert was taken in Jeff Luhnow’s very first draft with the Cardinals, the 2004 debacle. We all know the story by now, no crosscheckers, the assistant GM running the thing, flying just on instruments, etc. Still, this is an interesting pick, as the very first selection the Cardinals made with Luhnow on board just happened to come from a demographic that Luhnow went back to again and again.
We all know the story on Lambert, so I won’t rehash it here. Suffice it to say, the Cards’ 2004 first round draft pick was basically three months of Mike Maroth. I don’t think anything more needs to be said.
Mark McCormick- When the 2005 draft went down, I’ll admit that Mark McCormick was the player I was most excited about of the bunch. He had been clocked as high as 103 mph at times during his college career at Baylor and had a big hammer curve. Basically, the kid was Kerry Wood, just out of college.
This past season, McCormick made it to Double A for the first time in his career, at age 24. While at Springfield, he threw 23.2 innings, struck out sixteen batters, and walked eighteen. He also gave up five homers. Put it all together, and you get a 7.40 FIP. Ouch. McCormick has had injury issues as well, making him a very long shot to ever make it to the big leagues at this point. Not so good for a supplemental round pick.
Adam Ottavino- Ottavino was a hard thrower who was always more hittable than he should have been in college at Northeastern. After three years as a professional, he’s still a hard thrower who just happens to be more hittable than he should be. He was drafted thirtieth overall in the first round of the 2006 draft.
Like McCormick, Ottavino took a shot at Double A this year. Sadly, also like McCormick, Double A shot back. And how. Ott put up a 5.23 ERA, a 5.10 FIP, and a 96/52 K/BB ratio. Oy. Another first rounder that isn’t working out so well.
Gary Daley- When Daley was drafted, the club spoke of him having front of the rotation stuff, despite lackluster numbers in his college career. Daley was taken in the third round of the ’06 draft, and after three years, he-
You know what? Nevermind.
Eddie Degerman- Funky, Iron Mike delivery notwithstanding, I just don’t really see what the Cards saw in Degerman. He was taken in the fourth round out of Rick University.
He walked almost fourteen percent of the hitters he faced this season, which is the main problem with Degerman. He does strike out a lot of batters, allowing him to post an acceptable 4.49 FIP, but you don’t much like his chances of being a big contributor.
Brad Furnish- You know what I know about Brad Furnish? Two things. One, his agent seems like a pretty cool guy. Two, he was drafted over Brett Anderson in the second round of the ’06 draft. Anderson was a high schooler at the time, while Furnish was an underachieving lefty out of Texas Christian University. Furnish was known for having very good stuff for a lefty, but struggling to get a hold on his talent.
Two years later, Anderson is one of the top prospects in the Athletics’ system. Furnish came back from minor surgery this year and tried to get healthy. Not really his fault he got hurt, of course; just pointing out where each of them are.
When he’s been healthy, Furnish has actually pitched pretty well, to be honest. He had an ERA under 2.00 at Springfield this year, in 22 innings. Unfortunately, he had a 4.35 FIP to go along with a 4.86 in high class A. If Furnish could ever stay on the field, he might yet be effective, most likely out of the bullpen. See? It’s not all bad.
Clayton Mortensen- The Cards’ supplemental round pick out of Gonzaga in 2007, Mort cause quite a stir when he was drafted. He came to spring training this year and pitched pretty well before being sent down to Memphis. Unfortunately, after being promoted to Triple A midseason, Mortensen seemed a little out of his league, began nibbling, and predictably struggled.
Of all the pitchers on this list, I think I still like Mortensen the most. I think, with his repertoire, that he could definitely be an upper half of the rotation sort of pitcher. It’s just going to take a bit longer than some of us thought at the end of March.
David Kopp- One of my very favourite players in the entire farm system, largely due to his beautiful delivery, Kopp was taken in the second round out of Clemson in 2007. Unfortunately, Kopp hurt his shoulder and is currently running the gauntlet of medical personnel. There have been some rumours floating around that Kopp didn’t hurt his shoulder pitching, but I’ve been as yet unable to determine if that’s true or not.
I admit, I’m still a big Kopp fan. He’s got excellent stuff and great mechanics. Hopefully, his arm troubles will turn out to be just speedbumps on his way to major league glory.
Now, this isn’t necessarily a definitive list, by any means. Still, I think we have a large enough sample here to conclude that the raw college picher hasn’t been particularly good to the Cardinals. Yet still we see them go back to the same move every year.
I have to say, I just don’t get it.
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Hello again… Brad Furnish’s agent here, Jonathan Maurer… Thanks for the kind words! Brad is very excited about 2009 and Luhnow feels the same. Brad sat at 90-91, touching up to 95 at TCU, but as you noted, he spent a bunch of the 2007 & 2008 seasons getting the arm feeling right. He IS right now. I sat in Arizona last week where John Vuch was excited to see Furnish sit at 89-91 with a hammer curve and a nasty changeup. Batters, the best prospects in baseball, were late, very late with a ton of swing and misses. With Garcia getting reading to have Tommy John surgery, Furnish likely moves to the top Lefty prospect in the organization. If he stays healthy, if he walks a few less batters, if his velo is back to stay in the low 90′s… Furnish has a great shot to help the 2009 club at some point. A Big League camp invite would seem to be in order and then who knows. While Furnish will start in Springfield, and likely pitch in Memphis (as most Cardinals prospects do with LaRussa at the helm) the Big club, hurting for lefties should come calling. Furnish has starter stuff for sure, but, as he is doing in the AZ Fall League, he can also help in the bullpen! Have a great day and see you at the ball field! Jonathan
Would eddie degerman really be considered a raw college pitcher since his era was good at rice and had great strikeout numbers.
Wow,a very incisive and interesting report! I hadn’t thought of the Cardinals’ failures in drafting and developing college pitchers in that light before but you’re right. They seem to be banking on a certain kind of unpolished 21 or 22 year old to suddenly find their niche with professional tutelage. Well….it’s not working!!!! I certainly credit Luhnow with rejuvenating the Cardinals’ farm system and they’ve produced a lot of potential major leaguers but few with high ceilings. Drafting 22 year old pitchers in early rounds who haven’t achieved any degree of success in college will do that. Luhnow seems like a very bright guy and it will be interesting to see if they’ve learned that this isn’t the way to go. Hopefully they’ll look for future diamonds in the rough at the high school level.
While the jury is still out, Mortensen looks to be the best so far. Now what about Jess Todd? He isn’t really considered to be raw, but like Degerman unconventional. Well, Degerman is very unconventional. So far you would have to say Todd has panned out.
Another raw, college arm that has panned out so far would be Mitch Boggs. He didn’t have pretty stats in college, but he hasn’t missed a start and while he’s certainly not an ace, he should be a decent back of the rotation guy, or at worst a solid middle reliever. They have had some successes in drafting this type of player.
And I too still very much like D Kopp. Here’s hoping he can come back healthy.
Erik-
Todd I look at more as being a reliever to starter conversion, rather than a guy they drafted as a raw college upside gamble. Boggs probably does belong on this list, but I couldn’t really figure out the best way to approach him, what with the transferring and football and all. Plus, honestly, I was trying to keep this to a manageable length, so he got cut.
Easy-
While they haven’t had a bunch of slam dunks, by any means, I wouldn’t be completely down on the strategy. I’m a little doubtful that the club will end up getting a meaningful contribution from McCormick, simply because of the number of setbacks he’s had healthwise, but I think Mort, Kopp, and Furnish could all still be meaningful contributors at some point along the line. Ottavino I’m not real high on, and Daley seems to have developed a severe case of Ankielitis. At the very least, it’s a very interesting, Moneyballish draft strategy, going against the convention in an attempt to find an underutilised segment of player.
this is a joke….pitchers take longer to develop..i bet several of these picks will pan out long term…the finish line is still way off in the distance….
Good insight into the Cardinals backward way of thinking on taking pitchers. It’s consistently backward if nothing else. Everyone once in a while you have to roll the dice but not this way e.g. How is Rick Porcello doing in the Minors now?
Even though they believe in pitch to contact philosophy, it obviously makes more sense to select college pitchers who are more polished at that strategy in the first few rounds and then select the high ceiling power pitchers with lower picks becaue they are more of a long shot if only to use them as trade chips down the line for clubs who prefer power pitchers until we get rid of our current management and way of thinking.
More polished college pitchers have a better chance of moving through the system faster and power pitchers have a better chance in the bullpen if nothing else which can make them move faster also. Better return on your investment in a shorter time.
Plus you give the opposing team different looks which makes it infinitely harder to play against us. Makes too much sense for the Cardinals I guess!!
Jonathan
Thanks for stopping by. If there are any photos or youtubes of brad tossing in the AFL could you let us know. I would like to see how he mechanics look currently.
BJM
Just a follow up on the previous post. It makes sense to have a good mix of polished college pitchers and hi-ceiling hi schoolers to keep the pipeline full and continuing to be restock your system, for trades, etc but especially if you want to move talented players through the system faster as seems to be the case here lately under the new GM – MO.
This “philosophy/concept” of drafting diamonds in the rough goes contrary to that strategy also, so on several different levels this drafting tatic is senseless!
I doubt there is anyway to find out, but I am just curious if this demographic is particularly a Luhnow choice or if these are players scouts are pushing for? Scouts love tools and radar gun readings.
I am not sure I get this.
Whoever you draft, most likely will never see a day above AAA. I am going to say out of an entire draft for one team, one, maybe two will make it.
Luhnow is a stats guy. He gave an analysis of how they draft pitchers on the birdhouse. They chart then the human factor comes in, he stated it himself.
In my opinion, guys with very high velo, already pitching too much in college can be a disaster waiting to happen. A pitch to contact guy is the best to have in any rotation, he throws less than necessary, and keeps the team busy on the field. Saves the arm. He has to know when to go for the strike out. Mid relievers and closers are completely different type of pitchers.
I have seen many of the young guys pitch, I think they all bring something different. Maybe the problem is they want to make them all the same once they arrive, which is a starter (is that why they implemented the piggyback system).
Red Baron,
Thanks for responding. I do realize that several of these guys still have a chance at making a contribution. However, the three guys you mention were all drafted within the first two rounds of their drafts and have put in at least two years as pros without putting up distinguished records. I also have some hope for MOrt but only as a lower end starter. Furnish’s record looks like a good one for a tenth round choice. I like what I hear about Kopp from people who know better than I but injuries have kept him from proving himself one way or another. The point is that better players could have probably been had at the point they were drafted and the players that we did draft could have been had a few rounds later. Having said all that I am very happy that the system has been restocked with a lot of interesting prospects.
I am wondering if you could name any pitchers who they could have drafted in place of these players? Maybe they should have signed someone like Andrew Brackman? How about a few years ago, Dbacks signed Neighborghal (spelling), the hard thrower from GT who couldn’t pitch, who I thnk is done with the game.
Remember, Cardinals draft for slot, and those who you think should have been taken sooner wouldn’t sign for those slots. You sign what you can afford and who will take it, that seems to be the way. Drafting college juniors or seniors is a lot more economical than out of HS. And unless the HS player is a true phenom (Rick Porcello, Madison Bumgartner or Clayton Krenshaw) it’s a real gamble for the money they want.
BTW, first rounder in 2007 Casey Weathers to have TJS, another early round pick that I know having TJS as well, and a second rounder has had some shoulder issues (all college players). Didn’t a Pirate first rounder a few years ago have to have TJS? It’s very hard to find a college pitcher that has had NO injury issues along the way. Injuries reduce your worth and the possibilities. I am assuming that all of these college pitchers were injury free (and most remain) when they signed their contracts but as stated above, things happen.
For what it is worth, did you know that Eddie Degerman was a high school teammate of Ryan Braun at Granada Hills High School located in the San Fernando Valley in So Cal?