Decisions to be made with Rule 5 draft in mind
Posted on November 5th, 2008 by erik in Rule 5 Draft, Tyler GreeneWith the winter meetings coming up in about a month, clubs across the majors are looking at which of their players they need to add to their 40 man roster in order to protect them from that quirky Rule 5 draft. The Rule 5 was created in order to keep clubs from stockpiling too many players in their minor league system, it gives some players a chance to pursue their baseball career elsewhere. It used to be a lot more exciting until the new CBA added another year before the players are eligible, but since then we’ve seen Dan Uggla and Joakim Soria go out and blossom into All Stars, so there still is talent to be had.
Last year to my excitement the team took Brian Barton with the tenth pick in the Rule 5 draft from the Indians. Most of us remember Barton was the highest regarded player in the draft but was not overly impressive, putting together an OPS+ of 97 in 153 at bats. Given the croweded OF situation, he looks to be AAA bound given the crowded outfield situation.
This year, the Cardinals have several players that will be available in the Rule 5 without protection, all of which are college players drafted in 2005.
Tyler Greene – Could be the only protected player. He’s hitting hot in the AFL right now, batting .321/.410/.566. He still strikes me as being limitedly useful because of his inability to make consistent contact, but he is still an impressive athlete who could be a late bloomer. Mo recently spoke out that Greene is a possibility to make the MLB team out of spring training.
Mark McCormick – The flamethrower has flamed out. He cannot seem to throw strikes consistenly and his troublesome mechanics have led to big time health issues. He probably won’t require being added to the 40 man, and is unlikely to be taken in the Rule 5.
Luis Perdomo – Here’s where things could get interesting. You would hate to see the team lose the remains of Anthony Reyes, and given his power stuff I could see him intriguing teams. He hasn’t pitched well at all in winter ball. It is a bit of a toss up on whether or not he should be protected.
The rest: Kenny Maiques, Trey Hearne, Cody Haerther, Elvis Hernandez, Casey Rowlett, Brandon Yarbrough, Matt Pagnozzi and Matt Scherer. A year ago I would have said Maiques must be protected, but he fell completely apart this past season. Haerther’s star has faded into oblivion and I can’t see any interest in the rest.
Prediction: Greene and Perdomo will be added, no Cardinals will be drafted.

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When do the Cards pick in the Rule-5?
Same spot they would in the normal draft, but people with a full 40 man roster don’t get picks. So if anyone above them fills their roster then we pick sooner.
A lot of teams also pass on picking anyone, so we could move up that way.
Question: what happened to the 9 guys picked before barton last year?
I’ve been saying this for awhile but if I were a GM, I would probably take Mark McCormick in the Rule V draft unless I had a top 3-5 pick.
His minor league numbers don’t warrant a selection but his arm does. The last reports I heard on him this year had him topping out in the mid 90s still and if he still has a great curveball, he’d be an excellent candidate for the last spot in my bullpen.
Health problems only make the pick better. If he suffers any injuries I’d just stick him on the DL and I’d probably wind up keeping him in the organization after next year.
A lot of people have always thought McCormick’s future was in the pen. Perhaps a move could really help him out.
With that said, if I’m Mozeliak I wouldn’t protect him. We’ve got enough power arms in the minor leagues that we can afford to let McCormick slip away if he does and it certainly isn’t any guarantee he’ll get drafted. That’s just my opinion.
Here’s a review of the 2008 Rule V draft for you, sportsman:
http://baseballanalysts.com/archives/2008/10/a_review_the_20.php
For our guys, Greene is the only one I’d worry about protecting.
As for who we should pick, I think Sutton from the Astros’ farm system could be the next Uggla. He’ll probably be protected, but what the heck, I can dream.
sportsman, only two guys drafted before Crabman stayed in the bigs all season, Randor Bierd (#3, drafted from Detroit by Baltimore) and Wesley Wright (#8, drafted from Dodgers by Houston). Neither was anything special; although Wright appeared in a lot of games, arguably helped Houston down the stretch, and had a winning record, his ERA was well over 5. The others (including all the ones drafted after Barton) didn’t stick, although one or two were interesting enough that the drafting team negotiated the purchase of their rights rather than sending them back to the losing team — an option that wasn’t there with Barton, as Cleveland would certainly have insisted on getting him back.
In general Crabman was probably the biggest success story of the 2007 Rule 5 draft. Roberto Clemente or even Dan Uggla he wasn’t, but he was a valid pickup and a good use of the draft.
Bill,
Don’t forget Johan Santana – he was a Rule V pick as well.
I repeat: 2007 Rule 5 draft, Swirls. I believe Santana has been around somewhat longer than that. :-)