As an addendum to the inital ZiPS post, Dan S. added two more players to the projection at the behest of commenters: Brett Wallace & Daryl Jones.
Wallace projects as something near to an average first baseman already (he’s likely above replacement level by a win or so) leaving him about 6-7 projected wins behind Pujols. At third, he’s slightly above average but the loss in defense would probably be a push and keep him near the same value he’d have at first. He projects to be better than Allen Craig and David Freese at this point, which should serve as further indication how expendable one of those two prospects are. (You’re still my favorite 3B prospect, Allen!!!11!!1)
ZiPS trips Daryl Jones and then kicks him while he’s down. A projected line of .235/.299/.351 is downright terrible (Braves fans should choke on that Francouer-ian line). I suspect (ALERT: ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT PROJECTION MODEL AHEAD) a significant portion of that is a ZiPS regressing his BABIP from last season. That’s not an unreasonable thing to do — it was high — and while Jones’s speed is an asset he needs to show more power to indicate that the line drives are sustainable at higher levels. As promising as Jones’s season was last year, we’re still talking about 150 PAs above A-ball. His upside as an outfielder is second only to Rasmus (apologies to Jon Jay) among Cardinal prospects but there’s still a significant gap between what he’s done thus far and a real live boy major league player. To complete Goold’s SAT on Jones, I’d suggest Brian Barton as a reasonable floor to the Carl Crawford ceiling.
P.S. TOLAXOR makes an appearance in the ZiPS comments. I subscribe to the objectivist school of thought with probability if you were wondering.