ZiPpity doo da, ZiPpity day
Posted on November 6th, 2008 by azruavatar in Brett Wallace, Daryl JonesAs an addendum to the inital ZiPS post, Dan S. added two more players to the projection at the behest of commenters: Brett Wallace & Daryl Jones.
Wallace projects as something near to an average first baseman already (he’s likely above replacement level by a win or so) leaving him about 6-7 projected wins behind Pujols. At third, he’s slightly above average but the loss in defense would probably be a push and keep him near the same value he’d have at first. He projects to be better than Allen Craig and David Freese at this point, which should serve as further indication how expendable one of those two prospects are. (You’re still my favorite 3B prospect, Allen!!!11!!1)
ZiPS trips Daryl Jones and then kicks him while he’s down. A projected line of .235/.299/.351 is downright terrible (Braves fans should choke on that Francouer-ian line). I suspect (ALERT: ASSUMPTIONS ABOUT PROJECTION MODEL AHEAD) a significant portion of that is a ZiPS regressing his BABIP from last season. That’s not an unreasonable thing to do — it was high — and while Jones’s speed is an asset he needs to show more power to indicate that the line drives are sustainable at higher levels. As promising as Jones’s season was last year, we’re still talking about 150 PAs above A-ball. His upside as an outfielder is second only to Rasmus (apologies to Jon Jay) among Cardinal prospects but there’s still a significant gap between what he’s done thus far and a real live boy major league player. To complete Goold’s SAT on Jones, I’d suggest Brian Barton as a reasonable floor to the Carl Crawford ceiling.
P.S. TOLAXOR makes an appearance in the ZiPS comments. I subscribe to the objectivist school of thought with probability if you were wondering.
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TOLAXOR!!! I just like shouting TOLAXOR! I think i just figured out his name. If you spell it backwards, it’s rox a lot. That he does.
Man, I miss TOLAXOR over at VEB. He never writes, he never calls…sigh.
Szymborski hasn’t shown up yet, but I’d guess the main reason for Jones’s unimpressive projection is the 2007 line.
The assumptions above are correct – Jones projection is lousy because he can’t sustain that high BABIP and his 2007 season was terrible.
Even normalizing Jones’ BA to account for a normal BABIP his OBP and his ISO SLG would not change and his season would still be considered exceptional for a player of his age. Also, his BABIP at Springfield really wasn’t much out of line for a 20% LD rate.
Line drive rates can vary significantly year-to-year as well though. For example, Rasmus went from 13% in 2006 to 23% in 2007 to 15% in 2008.
I’ve been wondering how Szymborski finds references to ZiPS, whether it’s through clicks to BBTF or it’s googling his name.
If it is anything like my blog, you can see when someone links you in your dashboard.
Two comments on the ZiPS projections:
Ankiel’s optimistic line would be absolutely incredible production from a CF.
One of Wagonmaker’s comps is Dock Ellis. Awesome.
Az,
The more I look at it, the better Brian Barton seems to fit in the middle of that Prospect SAT. A lefthanded-hitting Barton? The slugging percentage lines up. Heck, even the homers/AB in their first swings at Double-A are the same. There’s more to like in Barton’s extra-base numbers than one of the initial suggestions that came up: Darryl Hamilton.
DARYL JONES:BRIAN BARTON:CARL CRAWFORD
Now try Jess Todd.
Hope you don’t mind me popping by …
Derrick
It’s not on my post, but feel free to pop by as often as you like, Derrick. Don’t be a stranger.