Finishing school grades
Posted on November 22nd, 2008 by erik in Arizona Fall League, tags: Adam Ottavino, Brad Furnish, Brett Wallace, Justin Fiske, Shane Robinson, Steve Hill, Tyler Greene, Tyler NorrickThe Arizona Fall League is also known as “prospect finishing school”. You need only to look at the past couple of MLB All Star games and you’ll find each team is packed with AFL grads. As a rule, the dry air of Arizona makes for a hitter’s league, and for Cardinal players, the rule stuck. Let’s give out the grades.
The hitters
Making his triumphal return to the Copper State, the former Sun Devil seemed to be perfectly comfortable in his old surroundings of the painted desert. The Walrus hit for a .422 wOBA over 104 plate appearances. He started off a little slow, but finished strong and helped cap his status as the best pure hitter in the system. If there was a downside to his season, it was that he struck out in 25.7% of his plate appearances, but for someone just a few months removed from college, I gotta like the results. Grade: A and voted most likely to succeed.
Tyler Greene needed to have a good showing, and a good showing he had. The GM took notice, stating at one point that Greene could possibly make the big league roster with a good spring training. In order to be protected from the Rule 5 draft, he was added to the 40 man roster. Greene has been an enigma wrapped in tools, and here’s hoping the 25 year old former 1st rounder is a late bloomer. On the surface it looks like he may have turned the corner, posting a .400 wOBA against the advanced competition, but I can’t say his peripherals changed dramatically. Over a 100 plate appearances, his walk rate was 8% and he struck out in 29% plate appearances, about right around his norm. If he could just get some sort of semblance of pitch recognition skills…Right now his upside looks a little like Bill Hall, only I think he will stick as a middle infielder. Grade: B. Voted best athlete and biggest flirt.
Steve Hill is the lord of the taxi squad. Or you can simply call him T-Bone. Splitting time between catching and DHing, Hill hit for a .436 wOBA over only 55 plate appearances. It’s a small sample, but a .305 isolated power is impressive, even playing in thin air. If he is halfway serviceable at catcher then he’s a pretty nice prospect. I think he’ll end up splitting catching duties with Arnoldi Cruz next year for Springfield. He’s definitely a favorite sleeper of mine, if he can still be classified as a sleeper. Grade: A. Voted most likely to beat the living snot out of you.
Shane Robinson got everyone’s attention when he hit around .400 for his first couple of months in AA, but once he moved up to Memphis he struggled at the plate and with injuries and seemed to fall off the grid. In 129 plate appearances as the Saguaros lead off hitter, Robinson posted a .351 wOBA. He led the team in runs scored (27) and stolen bases (8). His 12.9% walk rate is hopefully a sign of progress and if he can keep it up in AAA next year it will certainly boost his stock as a potential lead off hitter. While he had a decent AFL, he didn’t really do anything to separate himself from Rasmus, Mather, Jones and Jay in the depth chart, and still looks like a 4th OF to me. If he could only play 2B…Grade: C. Voted most scrappy. (Natch)
The pitchers
Adam Ottavino‘s prospect status took a few body blows this past season in AA, and I was hoping he’d take a whiff of the smelling salt and come out swinging in the AFL. Instead, he hit the mat again, with a .344 average against and a 6.17 ERA. His fielding independent numbers aren’t too bad though, he struck out 25 batters in 23.1 innings and had a 4.28 FIP. Grade: C+. Voted friendliest classmate.
After sitting on the sidelines most of the season with a strained left shoulder, Tyler Norrick was sent to the AFL to make up for lost time. Maybe a more tropical setting would have been more appropriate, as Norrick was tagged to the tune of a 7.88 ERA in 16 innings pitched. Like Ottavino, there was a pretty big discrepancy with his ERA and his FIP-4.83. He struck out 20 batters but struggled to keep the ball in the yard, yielding 5 homers. Grade: C-. Voted most likely to end up on the back of a milk carton.
Brad Furnish and his fly-balling ways surprised me by managing to not allow a homer over 15.2 innings in Arizona. The same malady that Ott and Norrick suffered plagued Furnish as well, his ERA was 7.47 but his FIP of 4.35 is respectable. Opponents hit .323 against him. Meh. Grade: C-. Voted Coolest Hair.
From the Indy leagues to the AFL, it’s been quite a ride for the soft-tossing Justin Fiske. Fiske looked like the most likely of the three lefties to get a look in spring training as a potential LOOGY. Over 11 innings he struck out 8, walked 5 and allowed 6 earned runs. FIP- 4.56. Meh again. C-. Voted most likely to join a German death metal band.
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I like this report on our AFL guys. It’s always such a good peek at their potential bridge to the bigs.
One question, however.
When you said that Tyler Greene “…could just get some sort of semblance of pitch recognition skills,” are you basing that on actually watching his plate appearances or as a potential hitting issue due to his BB/K %? Or something else?
Just wondering.
I would assume erik is simply making the statement re Greene that a player with as many empty swings as him is likely to get eaten alive by big league pitching. Just looking at those numbers, I’m inclined to agree. However, I’ll go you one better and include my own personal opinion from having seen Greene play in person: Erik is completely right. Seriously, the guy simply seems to lack the ability to tell what the pitch is going to be. Sad, too, because his actual physical swing is very good; he just gets fooled and ends up out on his front foot waaaaaay too often.
And technically, I was present at the vote on Ottavino, and it wasn’t “Friendliest”. It was “Most accommodating to those wishing to pad their stats”. See, he’s actually quite surly on the outside, but on the inside, he just melts when an opposing player tells Adam that if he doesn’t get his SLG up over .700, the coach is going to kick him off the team and the popular girl won’t like him. Ottavino to the rescue!
Right, TRB. Having seen him in person when he was in the QC and on videos, he is quite the whiffer. I also have asked around and I’ve heard some of the same things, ie he lacks pitch recognition, doesn’t pick up spin real well.
Also, from looking through the box scores almost every day, I was alarmed at how many times he would go down swinging. I know most K’s are swinging K’s, but it seemed like he never went down looking. Looking at his AAA stats at StatCorner, he swung 55% of the time and came up empty 26% of the time. Seems awfully high to me.
When I look at Greene I see a player with good potential. He has power, he has speed, he has range @ SS. But he just doesn’t make contact.
I think if he were thrust in a full season in the big leagues right now with his current skill set, he’d hit .220, maybe slug .390, steal 10 to 15 bags and strikeout 160 times.
Greene is quickly turning into an enigma. My interest is perked now. I wish I could see him taking some live swings. Now I wonder if he Ks on curves, sliders, or possibly straight changes, or if this is basically not a “spin read” problem, but an overall off-speed problem. The “front foot waaaaaay too often” description sure indicates off-speed problem, but yeah, it could just be failure to read the little red circle.
Otherwise, without a look-see, I wonder if when Greene does hit, he hits for high-grade relative to an old school 1-6. Erik said Greene can hit for power, so one thing I might ask is if you know if when he does hit for power, just what pitches is he hitting. I ask because if he is has no issues with bat speed, I’d surely go with the “failure to read” analysis. There’s always to the chance, however, that Greene is a) a poor situational hitter in relation to pitch count; b) is picking up spin, but not the release point, making reads tough; c) actually doesn’t have the bat speed (which I’m doubting on Erik’s analysis); d) is setting up fast ball way too much; e) refuses to “shorten up,” at least in his thinking, when down in count.
I am so intrigued by this mystery whiffer that I can help but think this is some basic hitting flaw that is somehow eluding him and the instructors.
What I would like to see if and when I ever get the opportunity to see this hitter, is: a) whether he swings and misses in the same way on his first and second strikes, and make a comparison for mechanics; b) get more refined on his swinging Ks to find out if there is a more frequent pitch type, speed, location, that gets him.
Sorry about the novel. It’s just that I don’t always run into folks like you who seem to possess a more in-depth knowledge on various aspects of the game. That you actually think about what the stats mean and what they reflect is totally refreshing when compared to the droves of “instant experts” with huge databases.
Thank you much and I hope to bug the heck out of you guys in the future on Future Redbirds.
Chet-
To attempt to answer all of those questions:
I’ve seen Greene play in maybe half a dozen games over the past two years, so I’m going on maybe 25-ish at bats. Just so you know what sort of experience base we’re talking about. Of those 25 at bats, I’ve seen two home runs and about seven or eight strikeouts.
As far as which pitches Greene whiffs on, I’d say he’s fairly equal opportunity. He can swing and miss at pretty much whatever you offer him. That said, he attacks fastballs up in the zone very effectively, but struggles with the low pitch. Both breaking balls (slider and curve), give him some trouble, but he isn’t Pedro Cerrano on them either. What few changes I’ve seen thrown to him seem to really give him a lot of trouble. He seems to ALWAYS be in front of the changeup.
I almost wonder if Greene simply doesn’t have very good vision. I know that Daryl Jones had laser eye surgery before the season, and it’s been postulated that improved vision probably had something to do with his breakout season. Perhaps Tyler suffers from a similar malady…?
His bat speed and all those things are quite solid, from what I can see. The ball comes off his bat with some ‘jump’ to it, when he makes contact. He even has pretty decent leverage in his swing, with just enough loft to make him a consistent threat to drive the ball. He just doesn’t seem to recognise what the pitch is early enough to decide what to do with it. Location seems to fool him occasionally, but not to an absurd extent. Spin is where I would put my money. He just looks like he’s always swinging for the fastball, and doesn’t see the offspeed pitch early enough to keep from being thrown off balance. Now, as to whether or not that’s an issue with his pitch recognition out of the pitcher’s hand or the spin of it in flight, I really couldn’t speculate. Either way, he gets fooled quite often, and ends up taking a lot of ugly cuts. What Erik said about his swinging and missing a lot is very accurate. You see Greene start to swing, then change his mind too late to stop, and end up taking a weak, half regretful swing an awful lot.
His power seems to come primarily on mistakes, particularly of the poorly-located fastball variety. He’ll occasionally hammer a bad breaker, but even when he gets a hanger, he seems like he fouls it back more often than he punishes it. On the other hand, I don’t see him behind on the fastball very often, even from pitchers who can bring it, and he doesn’t seem to really have to cheat to hit the heat.
As to his hitting mechanics changing from a normal count to a two strike count, I honestly can’t say that I paid enough attention to that to give you any sort of answer. My apologies. I will say that he doesn’t seem to change his approach a whole lot with two strikes; you don’t notice him obviously trying to shoot the ball to the opposite field or anything like that.
All in all, I think Greene’s problems begin with his eyes. I don’t know whether or not his eyes are less than great, or if he just does a poor job of picking up the ball for some other reason, but he simply does not seem to see the ball well enough to determine what the pitch is early. I think his bat speed and swing mechanics are both pretty good overall; he does seem to start a little early, but I think it may just look that way because of his inability to recognise offspeed stuff. He does seem to hit for a high grade when he makes contact, as you say; weak contact isn’t a real common outcome with Greene, from what I’ve seen. When he hits the ball, he squares it up pretty well, and the ball comes off his bat hot. He just misses completely. A lot.
That’s my own personal scouting report on Tyler Greene’s K problem.
And hey, you want to see him take some swings? Ask, and ye shall receive:
Try this
I forgot Greene is on there twice. Here’s another clip. This one’s longer, too.
TRB–
Thanks so much for the details on your observations on Greene.
Without yet having seen the video, I would surmise from your report that Greene is either guessing fast ball all the time because his bat speed is not as good as we think, or, more likely, he is setting up fastball all the time (in his hitting zone) and pressuring the pitcher to either hit his spot or get hit.
These clues lead me to believe the aforementioned:
–always out in front
–doesn’t do much with the hangers
–rarely behind on fastballs
I’ll hazard a guess that many of his “weak, half regretful” swings come with one strike.
And you really called it on the eye vision thing. I was sooo close to listing that previously, but decided not to because I was assuming any professional organization would be on top of that. Maybe not?
So if he’s setting up fast ball only takes reading the pitch out as a factor because he has pre-read. We just don’t know what he’s seeing nor what he’s thinking. I think you broke it down to the point where you alluded to that.
Something’s not adding up; that’s for sure. And it sounds as if Greene could/should be even better at the plate. I’m sure he’s working his tail toward that end.
From what you’ve said so far, however, he may about to hit a wall, or already has, in the AFL, where there’s a steady stream of good pitchers without a stat-padder in the bunch. The ML hurlers with book him quick on the type of drawbacks you describe. I hope he improves. I’m going to check those videos.
Thanks again.
A nice swing Mr. Greene has, but maybe one thing that prevents him from getting the full benefit of his skills. Am done for tonight, though. I’ll come back to this post soon and put up my armchair analysis.
Oh, how easy to pick on every one else’s skills, but believe me, I do so with the best of intentions. I have a ton of respect for these players and how difficult a job they have.
And, before I sign off on today’s fun, that vimeo deal was perfect.
Thanks for all the extra attention today, TRB, and Erik.
I don’t know if anyone has mentioned this before, but does ottavino remind you of anyone? my gut tells me that he might be another chris lambert. how is lambert doing in detroit by the way?
Lambert gave up 31 hits in 20 some odd innings for Detroit, but he might be a serviceable 5th starter. Lambert also lost his velocity. By the accounts I’ve heard, Ottavino is still hurling it up there in the low to mid nineties. He has been about as underwhelming as Lambert in terms of results, but the stuff is still there.
I think he’ll end up as a reliever.
Chet,
I would also assume the Cards have run everyone through eye tests, and hopefully every season. But I can tell you from personal experience that if your vision is not too bad you can “cheat” an eye exam by squinting. Until the middle of my first semester as a Freshmen in High School I never realized that I wasn’t supposed to squint to see things so doing this on eye exams was just normal to me. His vision might have just slowly started degrading and he developed a squinting habit. Does anyone have a close up of his face during an AB? That could explain how something was missed if that is the case.
As for Greene’s swings, does he look similar to Duncan? Dunc to me is just a hacker, he seems to swing for a fastball on every pitch. A Duncanesque player with less power but able to play 2B or SS wouldn’t be half bad, especially as your off the bench backup.
Working an analysis mainly on the first clip, the one with five swings (ending in a shot to left, it appears), it’s obvious Greene is setting up inner-half fast ball. The slightly open stance plus the pre-pivoted rear foot begs the pitchers to spot low and away with off-speed, but also pressures them on anything up and especially inside.
Whether this is Greene’s intention, I have no clue. He may simply be hitting in what he perceives as his most productive manner, and he has obviously done quite well so far.
But to nitpick and guesstimate, which is safe and easy when it’s not my tail in the batters’ box, I would make one simple suggestion to start, and it’s not strategic, as in the way I’ve prefaced this commment.
What may be preventing a more efficient swing is Greene’s hands, or more specifically, the movement of same. In the first clip, overall, we see a double movement in Greene’s hands, the first one, down from their high original position. The second portion of that movement is where the potential hindrance lies.
In the first and last swings of the first clip, we see that the secondary motion of Greene’s hands is back, which is quite necessary for his “loading.” On his first swing, Greene tops a foul ball, overly pulled, but utilizing what I believe is a good swing which he seems comfortable with. In the last swing, of course, he rips the ball.
But the second, third, and fourth swings reveal how his secondary hand motion is not back, but rather, down, what I believe is natural, but flawed reaction to pitch location. If there is no backward motion on these swings, the loadup will not lead to an effective launch. The “double-dip” is a problem, whereas the inititial dip and backward movement (part of the loadup) is not.
On the second swing, actually, Greene’s hands are somewhere between double-dip and backward movement, but you can see how this results in an elbow’s bent, catch-up, wristing type of cut, on which finds the power of the launch of his forward hip dimished, should he make contact. Bent elbows just doesn’t produce a whole lot of drives.
Dropping the hands “two flights” creates a scenario in which catching up to anything is nearly impossible. The most a hitter can hope for in this scenario is to “inside-out” a swing to the opposite field.
Another effect the dropping of the hands has is that the lower half of the body often drops right along with them (swings #3 and #4). There goes any sort of explosive launch with the front side hip.
A bad effect of not catching up to pitches over a period of time leads to opening up sooner and sooner, which may or may not be occurring with Greene, but has in his first four swings.
So the mystery of Greene looking every bit capable of hitting heat may be solved in that indeed, he shows every indication that he can. But … when his hands drop down in two distinct movements instead of down and back, in my opinion, he is simply not allowing himself to take a position that allows him to launch effectively.
As for opening up too soon, head out, lack of extentsion, those mechanical factors, I believe, are a by-product of that hands not reaching back, and those issues will most likely take care of themselves as the hand movement is adjusted.
And I hate to put any potential book on a Cardinal, being a fan, but low and slow is probably going to make Greene drop those hands twice, and if dropping his lower half along with the hands is his tendency, pitchers with probably work him up and in, low and away, basic, but effective. In this way, I would guess that pitchers will not fear any low mistake pitches, as it is doubtful that even should Greene make contact, the early opening, off-timing, bent elbow, result will be nothing to fear. The catcher, on the other hand, may have to stay alert, as Greene may end up accidentally kicking him with his rear foot as well.
An up and inside mistake pitch that catches too much of the plate is one pitch I see Greene pounding, but one which will become more rare as he reaches each new and higher level of competition. Such a pitch sends his hands back more then down, and in plenty of time to put all the load and launch factors in an efficient position for execution.
What’s fun about this is how easy it is to be wrong, and I realize that. But if I were directing this hitter, a bit of cage time might tell the tale, or, deepen the mystery.
I didn’t see your next comment until after I posted my previous comment.
We must think along the same lines, because as I was working up a brief analysis of Tyler Greene’s swing (and as I studied it earlier), I kept thinking Duncan in the other batters’ box, sort of. But yeah, I see some similarity.
These two are definitely not alone in the higher levels of baseball when it comes to this outside, off-speed challenge.
To me, in order to be accomplished at the higher levels of batmanship, you sort of become highly proficient in pull hitting or centered hitting, the latter often labelled as a “spray hitter,” as you are undoubtedly aware. It is only the hitters–prime example, Pujols–that have the ability to hit productively to all fields, that have earned a doctorate, in a manner of speaking, in two different majors of hitting.
But Greene/Duncan, yeah, similar challenges on different sides of the dish.
Duncan’s difficulties are more pronounced, in my opinion, because of three main factors.
1) He has probably taken far more ABs with injury than any of us realize.
2) He simply is not as efficient in hitting through the middle and to the opposite field.
3) He’s facing the highest level of competitive hurlers.
During the last season, I believe I posted a few bio-mechanical items relative to Duncan’s swing before I knew he had these lingering injuries. Either way, however, injury or not, I believe both Duncan and Greene would serve themselves and their respective teams far better if they became more proficient at hitting through the middle.
And off the cuff, I think Duncan would kill if he went in for the Lauist approach. Greene, on the other hand, seems to be one of those hitters who may not necessarily benefit by the same. I’m a big believer in Lauist hitting, but I’m also a big believer in the uniqueness of each hitter and what suits them best. Often, what suits a hitter best, is what they believe suits them them best, and not what I or anyone else believes.
I would never have a problem with a hitter, for instance, saying, “Naw, I don’t like that thinking, or that approach, or that way execution.”
When we bloggers suppose what we would do or not do in the various GMs, coaching, players’ respective circumstance, I, at one point last season, would’ve liked to instruct a hitter like Duncan. Of course, I’m no pro, but fans often think this way and I’m no different. I see in Duncan a potential to hit far better and also a man that many have totally misread as far as his committment to the game and his team.
Stepping out of my rah-rah and back to your comment, I like your insistance on more vision testing. It can’t hurt, right? Sometimes people “cheat” on focusing on objects without any clue they are doing so. That’s very common.
Maybe I should have MY eyes checked again.
Sorry, Hugo, I’d been posting frequently with Erik and TRB and didn’t realize another person was joining.
My bad, but I guess I think along the same lines as you as well as the others.
And another thought, as for your last paragraph, do you think Aaron Miles fits that bill? Or maybe not quite enough power?
Wasn’t Eduardo Perez one of those guys who really started hitting better when he went back to contacts *after* his lasic eye surgery?
It’s no secret the guys with amazing recognition skills have great eyesight but I wonder how much is done to help players with average or less-than-average eyesight.
Miles doesn’t seem to have the same holes as Duncan and not quit the power I was thinking either. But Miles as your MIF Bench/PH would be perfectly fine with me I just don’t want him starting everyday.