AZ decided to start the painful process of auditing his rankings of last year, something I think most prospect “rankers” would rather not do. Thinking of doing it myself makes me think about that dream you have where you are in the middle of class and suddenly you realize you are the only one in your boxer shorts. Really though, it’s a great idea and I’m looking forward to patting myself on the back/embarrassing myself in a future post by going over my list in a later post. (Brad Furnish…really? What was I smoking?)
I’ve been thinking about Pete Kozma controversy for a while lately, what with Bird Land’s Reader Top 30 ignoring him every week. I think AZ perfectly encapsulates how many fans feel about Kozma.
#16: Right where he should have been. Great start to the season earned him much acclaim in the blogosphere and much finger pointing at detractors. Things evened out by the end of the season to show that he’s a decent prospect but still not a great choice for a first round pick.
I’ve waffled back and forth on Kozma, but now I have to respectfully disagree. It’s true, he started hot this season, fizzled, came back strong enough to earn a promotion to FSL, and there proceeded to lay a big, fat stinky egg over 94 plate appearances.
Allow me to cherry pick a little and throw out the aforementioned doorknob. What happened in Florida will stay in Florida, after all, it was the end of a long season. Let’s look at the bigger picture of his MWL season. If I butcher some numbers, then tell me so.
Kozma’s Peak Translated EqA was .269. The average EqA for a major league shortstop is .255. Michael Young (a player to whom Kozma has drawn a few comparisons) had .267 EqA, which is a down year for him. For his career, Young has a .273 EqA. Looking at another SS: Yunel Escobar, who many fans are clamoring that Mozeliak make a move for even at the expense of Ryan Ludwick, had a .271 EqA. Ryan Theriot, the scrappy lead-off hitter for the NL Central champs (that hurt to think, let alone type) posted a .263 EqA.
I’m not saying Peak Translations are the perfect prophet for every prospect and prospect wannabe, but the numbers are basically agreeing with Kozma’s scouting report, which is that he is nothing flashy, but above average in about every category other than power.
Let’s look at another metric. I don’t pretend to completely understand wOBA or EqA, but I think I get their drift from what I’ve read about them. Anywho, Kozma’s wOBA+ was 109; BA’s Top Midwest League prospect Mike Moustakas was 110. I’m not trying to say something outrageous like Moustakas is just a teeny bit better than Kozma, but I am saying Kozma was the best everyday shortstop in a pitcher’s league just a year removed from high school, and had a lot better of a season than most people give him credit for.
Looking in hindsight, is there someone else in the 2007 draft the Cards should have rather drafted? I’m not sure you can make a airtight argument for any player. Rick Porcello? Of course, but we all know the Cardinals will never pay a high school pitcher that kind of money, and a little more than twenty teams passed on him for the same reason. Ben Revere had a monster season (wOBA+ 129), but his selection was picked on by the pundits far more so than Kozma’s. J.P. Arencibia hit very well, but he’s a 1B or a DH in the making, not a catcher.
Back then, I personally wanted Todd Frazier and Brett Cecil. Frazier did his best shortstop impression last year, but no one believes he’ll stay there and there’s already talk the Reds will be moving him to right field. We really don’t need yet another corner OF. Brett Cecil is someone that was linked to the Cardinals and they could have picked over Mortensen, and now passing him twice over is looking like a big mistake. A college reliever converted to the rotation, he gets gobs of grounders and a goodly amount of K’s. He looks like a solid #3 or possibly a closer. Oh, and he’s left-handed and he finished in AAA to end the season. I think he’d be the best argument against Kozma, but they could have had both!
The bottom line is good middle infield prospects are hard to find. Kozma may do anything exceptional, but does a lot of things quite well, and maybe that’s why he gets overlooked. A merely good SS is a very good #1 pick in a draft like 2007′s, and Kozma did more than just hold his own in his first full professional season. Just think about the Cardinal’s present day needs: the best free agent shortstops available are declining and overpriced, and names we hear most often in trade rumors are Julio Lugo and Jack Wilson. Bleh. It’ll be nice to have a cost-controlled SS for a change.
Sneak preview of my top prospects, and this is subject to change and your arguments will be taken into consideration, but—
- Rasmus
- Wallace
- Perez
- Anderson
- Jones
- Kozma
I suppose when I boil it all down, give me the above average SS over some of the iffy mid-rotation starters, set up relievers and averagish corner outfielders in our system. If Jaime Garcia were fully healthy, then I’d bump Koz down a notch.
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Does Kozma maybe fall into a category like Jed Lawrie? Lawrie doesn’t do anything great, but he will probably be BoSox starting SS next season and was a 1st rounder in ’05. I sometimes get the feeling that everyone wants a Hanley-type SS, but those don’t just come around every year (or even every 5/10 years).
Um, kind of…Lowrie and Kozma’s tools are different-Lowrie isn’t much of a runner and lacks range, but has more power, patience-but yeah, neither are going to wow you, but both probably will be above average everyday shortstops for a while.
When I think Kozma, I think he median comp would be something like Fernando Vina, only as a shortstop, naturally.
Anyone who wants a hanley type SS is an idiot because you’ll never find those players. He’s a 7-8 win player at SS. He and Utley are otherworldly middle infielders.
That came off unintentionally harsh. Anyone who expects hanley like production from a middle infielder is unrealistic in their expectations. He and Chase Utley are 2 of the top 10 players in all of baseball right now.
I think that all of these young players with fundamentally good skills accross the board but no outstanding ones are tough to judge. Jed Lowrie has fewer skills than Kozma but he has the potential to have a very high on base percentage and score 100 runs a year as a regular. If he does that he’ll be considered a star. A prospect like Jon Jay looks like a fourth outfielder but what if he shows he can hit .320 in the majors? Suddenly he’s Brian Giles. Kozma is the same way. We may project him to hit .270 with decent walks, 10-15 homers, a smattering of stolen bases and solid defense. If that’s what happens then he’s in the Vina as a shortstop range. But what happens if he sharpens his pitch selection, listens to his coaches raises his batting average 20 points and takes a lot of walks? He would likely be the Card’s leadoff or second place hitter, would, like Lowrie, be scoring 100 runs a year and would likely play in some all star games. If he goes the other way, hits .250 with a mediocre oba, then he becomes a utility player because he doesn’t have the one or two intriguing tools that would keep him a starter.
Right now I have him around 11th on my prospect list but I do think he’s the one prospect who is likely to rise or fall a long way. If he shows this year that he can achieve a top notch on base percentage he’ll vault into my top five.
I’d probably put Kozma #3 behind Rasmus and Anderson for the “all-around skills” argument already stated. Wallace will have to be an extremely good hitter to be an above-average player overall, and for now there’s too much regression to the mean at play for me to project that just yet. Jones has similar regression to the mean issues, and the couple of times I saw him, the famous tools weren’t apparent to me.
Kozma reminded me a little bit of Jacoby Ellsbury, adjusting for age and position.
Kozma-
We just all need to ignore where he was drafted and evaluate him on how he is progressing. I think we all expect more of an “impact” type player ie… has one really great tool to be drafted in the first round. Pete by all account does not do anything great. I watched him play a couple games in Cedar Rapids and I was like ho-hum, he’s not awful but boy nothing he does is that impressive.
I hope he developes into a average MLB SS, as that would be very good. The Cards should have enough big bats that Pete just needs to be average
I agree with IC, we need to ignore draft round when doing rankings and evaluations. If we had signed that big hitter from the 07 draft who shall not be named then he might be ranked higher then any of our 1st rounders or lower then some of our 20th rounders. It all depends on performance. Kozma to me isn’t given enough credit for his defense, from all accounts it is smooth and almost flawless to the point where you don’t even realize he is there, his bat is simple not flashy and not horrid, again something you just kind of gloss over when thinking about him. Taken as a whole player though I think he is second to only Rasmus for the “complete package” as a postion player I think he may rank in the top 5 easily but I do beleive in pitching prospects and beleive that several rank higher then he does.
I would even argue that Kozma has a better chance to be a starter in the major leagues than Daryl Jones. I don’t know if that makes him a better prospect (it depends on your definition), but I agree that people have been way to hard on Kozma. I actually made the comment that prompted Goold’s piece, and I stand by it. Kozma has a lot more value than people give him credit for. He would be in my top ten prospects (if I had one).
In hindsight guys I’d rather have taken instead of Kozma with that pick off the top of my head:
Stanton
Arrieta
Alderson
Main
Todd, I would agree that Kozma has a better chance to be a starter over Jones. That then begs the question is a league average starting SS with +defense more valuable then an above avg 4th OF.
I think I would rather have Kozma over Jones and my last crack at the top 10 might have been unduly weighted towards flashy numbers (I had freese and jones ahead of kozma, jay etc. just based on this year)
Where a prospect was drafted (e.g., first round, thirteenth round) does have predictive value, as does signing bonus. They shouldn’t be ignored.
I’m more partial to Kozma than most, but the three or four games I saw him his hands weren’t middle-infielder quality. It was a small size though, and I am well aware of my limitations as a scout.
Erik,
I have to say I’m impressed. You’ve changed my mind on Kozma.
Great post.