Comments on: Pete Kozma is underrated and underappreciated

By: Chris

Chris — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 16:22:21 +0000

Erik,

I have to say I’m impressed. You’ve changed my mind on Kozma.

Great post.

By: greenback06

greenback06 — Tue, 02 Dec 2008 01:24:31 +0000

Where a prospect was drafted (e.g., first round, thirteenth round) does have predictive value, as does signing bonus. They shouldn’t be ignored.

I’m more partial to Kozma than most, but the three or four games I saw him his hands weren’t middle-infielder quality. It was a small size though, and I am well aware of my limitations as a scout.

By: Hugo

Hugo — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 20:30:34 +0000

Todd, I would agree that Kozma has a better chance to be a starter over Jones. That then begs the question is a league average starting SS with +defense more valuable then an above avg 4th OF.

I think I would rather have Kozma over Jones and my last crack at the top 10 might have been unduly weighted towards flashy numbers (I had freese and jones ahead of kozma, jay etc. just based on this year)

By: LQ

LQ — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 19:52:25 +0000

In hindsight guys I’d rather have taken instead of Kozma with that pick off the top of my head:

Stanton
Arrieta
Alderson
Main

By: Todd

Todd — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 16:19:43 +0000

I would even argue that Kozma has a better chance to be a starter in the major leagues than Daryl Jones. I don’t know if that makes him a better prospect (it depends on your definition), but I agree that people have been way to hard on Kozma. I actually made the comment that prompted Goold’s piece, and I stand by it. Kozma has a lot more value than people give him credit for. He would be in my top ten prospects (if I had one).

By: Hugo

Hugo — Mon, 01 Dec 2008 14:59:47 +0000

I agree with IC, we need to ignore draft round when doing rankings and evaluations. If we had signed that big hitter from the 07 draft who shall not be named then he might be ranked higher then any of our 1st rounders or lower then some of our 20th rounders. It all depends on performance. Kozma to me isn’t given enough credit for his defense, from all accounts it is smooth and almost flawless to the point where you don’t even realize he is there, his bat is simple not flashy and not horrid, again something you just kind of gloss over when thinking about him. Taken as a whole player though I think he is second to only Rasmus for the “complete package” as a postion player I think he may rank in the top 5 easily but I do beleive in pitching prospects and beleive that several rank higher then he does.

By: icbirdfan

icbirdfan — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 19:01:26 +0000

Kozma-

We just all need to ignore where he was drafted and evaluate him on how he is progressing. I think we all expect more of an “impact” type player ie… has one really great tool to be drafted in the first round. Pete by all account does not do anything great. I watched him play a couple games in Cedar Rapids and I was like ho-hum, he’s not awful but boy nothing he does is that impressive.

I hope he developes into a average MLB SS, as that would be very good. The Cards should have enough big bats that Pete just needs to be average

By: greenback06

greenback06 — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 17:28:04 +0000

I’d probably put Kozma #3 behind Rasmus and Anderson for the “all-around skills” argument already stated. Wallace will have to be an extremely good hitter to be an above-average player overall, and for now there’s too much regression to the mean at play for me to project that just yet. Jones has similar regression to the mean issues, and the couple of times I saw him, the famous tools weren’t apparent to me.

Kozma reminded me a little bit of Jacoby Ellsbury, adjusting for age and position.

By: Easy

Easy — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 17:19:25 +0000

I think that all of these young players with fundamentally good skills accross the board but no outstanding ones are tough to judge. Jed Lowrie has fewer skills than Kozma but he has the potential to have a very high on base percentage and score 100 runs a year as a regular. If he does that he’ll be considered a star. A prospect like Jon Jay looks like a fourth outfielder but what if he shows he can hit .320 in the majors? Suddenly he’s Brian Giles. Kozma is the same way. We may project him to hit .270 with decent walks, 10-15 homers, a smattering of stolen bases and solid defense. If that’s what happens then he’s in the Vina as a shortstop range. But what happens if he sharpens his pitch selection, listens to his coaches raises his batting average 20 points and takes a lot of walks? He would likely be the Card’s leadoff or second place hitter, would, like Lowrie, be scoring 100 runs a year and would likely play in some all star games. If he goes the other way, hits .250 with a mediocre oba, then he becomes a utility player because he doesn’t have the one or two intriguing tools that would keep him a starter.
Right now I have him around 11th on my prospect list but I do think he’s the one prospect who is likely to rise or fall a long way. If he shows this year that he can achieve a top notch on base percentage he’ll vault into my top five.

By: azruavatar

azruavatar — Sun, 30 Nov 2008 03:35:13 +0000

That came off unintentionally harsh. Anyone who expects hanley like production from a middle infielder is unrealistic in their expectations. He and Chase Utley are 2 of the top 10 players in all of baseball right now.