It’s deja vu all over again. I can’t speak for my co-writers, but I for one really don’t want to see an A.J. Burnett signing. For one, he’s logged 200 innings in only three seasons in his ten year career. Secondly, he is a type A free agent who declined arbitration, which would mean no first round pick. Since the Birds didn’t offer arbitration to a soul, their first 2009 draft pick would be a 2nd rounder. For a frame of reference, their last 2nd round pick was spent on Shane Peterson.
When healthy, Burnett is a fantastic pitcher, so I think in the short term he would greatly help. Long term, locking up a lot of dollars for the next five years on a 30 year old who has proven he cannot stay healthy, compounded with the loss of our first rounder, causes me to say “pass”.
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I agree. AJ Burnett is not worth giving up a first rounder for especially given the pitching depth in this years draft. I think someone like Brad Penny would fit the bill and would require less years and significantly less money.
In my opinion you guys are way overrating a first round pick. I love the farm as much as anyone, but I’d much rather give up my first round pick for Burnett than Colby and a couple more established prospects for Peavy. A lot of people believe Peavy is even more of an injury risk than AJ. Personally, I’d rather shoot for Orlando Hudson and Oliver Perez, but Mozelak has made it clear that 2b is not a priority. If we’re focussing on pitching then AJ is the best, realistic candidate and if that means giving up another Ottavino or Chris Lambert then I am all for it. Finding someone as useful as AJ or as potentially as impact as Colby is about 1 in 50 odds.
Shouldn’t our surplus in the outfield lead to something as far a pitcher is concerned. I’d rather us go out and get a young, but healthy starter with schumaker and a prospect then spend $15 million on Burnett for five years or $7 million on Penny, who may or not be healthy. If we believe Carpenter is going to be ok, why commit another chunk of cash to the starting staff. Go out and find a starter in the minors who can start now, but doesn’t necessarily profile to be a 1-2 starter.
Everyone who has frontline, young, healthy starters will not be parting with them for Schu and a prospect.
I think the Burnett talk could be Burnett’s agent trying to drive the price up.
And I would note that he never reveals his sources. He just uses a quote from the P-D about focusing on starting pitching. I think that same article or another from the same day also says the Cards are not players for the major arms on the FA market.
I will refuse to believe any media reports of us signing a free agent starting pitcher until it actually happens. Coming in “2nd place” year after year in free agent SP market has made me jaded.
I agree with Jared. I’d rather have AJ and lose a 1st then trade top prospects for a SP. For every Wallace, there’s a Paul Coleman, for every Rasmus, there’s a Lambert, Ottavino, etc.
It’d be different if we’ve consistently developed 1st round talent or take risks on high reward SP in the 1st round (Porcello, Hughes, etc.) instead of always taking the safe choices.
I agree with Travis…this sounds like agent speak creating demand to drive up the price. On the other hand, can we trust the Cardinal’s front office when they tell us that Carpenter will be ready?
If they are in on Burnett then regarding Carpenter, my response is…”your actions speak so loudly that I cannot hear what you say”.
I understand we aren’t going to get a frontline starter for Schumaker and a prospect; I said as much. What I’m hoping for is a cost controlled starter who is ready now and profiles as a 3 or 4 starter. We need the depth in the minors and we don’t have anyone besides Boggs ready for this year. Deal from strength to address an organizational weakness — young starting pitching.
It’s not just the missing draft pick. I’m not thrilled with his injury history. Burnett’s too risky, IMO.
It’s the draft pick, the injury history, and the opportunity cost. Committing big dollars and multiple years to Burnett could keep us from being able to do other things, such as re-up Pujols and eventually players like Wainwright and Rasmus.
@ Todd. Right, that’s what I’m saying… but Wainwright has already been reupped.
Given our history of not giving out long-term deals to pitchers, I don’t think it will gain any momentum. In fact, can anyone remember us giving a 5-year deal to any starting pitcher, including our own? It just flies in the face of how we operate, which (personally) I think is smart business considering most of those deals usually end up extremely lopsided in favor of the player later in the contract. Burnett in 2009 will not be the same as Burnett in 2012.
i agree with u guys that the draft pick is a crapshoot. its still roughly one in three though for first rounders and the value on guys like rasmus is huge. burnett will cost about what we would have left to spend anyways with holes in bullpen/closer and second base. i like cardinalsins idea in getting penny. between carp and penny one would be really good next year and possibly two. 1 1/2 seasons of penny/carp plus a half season of piniero sounds ok.
I agreed with you on VEB and I will agree here too. I very much respect Az but I don’t see many positives to doing this. You lose out on a 1st round pick and are on the hook for a pitcher on the wrong side of 30 with injury history out his tail end for FIVE YEARS!!! He is very good (although not as much as CC who is the only FA pitcher I would give 5 years to) but this could just as easily turn into a Mike Hampton-type contract.
Bernie says it wasn’t legit, anyway. Rosenthal kind of frames it as a guess, but the headline is a bit misleading.
Everyone said the same thing when he signed in Toronto. He then went to post seasons worth 1.5W, 2W, and 4W last season. He projects as a +3 player next season which would make him the equal of either Wainwright or Carpenter’s projection next seaosn (better when you consider IP).
Let me repeat that: Burnett projects as better than ANY current starter the Cardinals have for next year.
Shanky,
The contract “extension” we worked out with Carpenter ended up as the equivalent of a 5 year deal. It was a 3 year extension for after the 08 season. He still had 2 years remaining on his current deal, so it was the equivalent of a 5 year deal.
I believe the deal we gave Waino last year was a 5 year deal as well… Or maybe it was 4 years with an option for a 5th. I don’t remember.
AZ — He’s also 3 years older today than he was then. We’re talking about his age-32 through age-36 seasons. I like him very much for the next 2 seasons but not for the next 5. I think you were right then (and I was wrong) but I think you’re wrong today….respectfully.
the idea of signing burnett is without question intriguing due to the simple fact of what he could bring to the table. most people who surf this site know what he is: a unique arm with injury/makeup concerns. to me, burnett is one of the biggest enigmas of the decade. he has the best stuff of any pitcher i’ve ever seen with the possible exception of randy johnson in his prime. however, his story is well known. injury issues and mediocre career numbers.
the cost of a draft pick is very big in today’s game. teams value this more than ever now that the realization of building from within is more and more empasized (see tampa bay). but one thing that i firmly believe about the cardinals is this: luhnow and co. have done an excellent job of replenishing talent back into this once barren farm system. however, what they have excelled at is providing depth, not impact talent. sure, there is the obvious exceptions with players such as rasmus, wallace and perhaps jones. but the cardinals have been EXTREMELY poor at developing frontline starting pitchers. haren turned out to be an all-star, but the last pitcher that we developed that was a frontline pitcher was morris. you could argue wainwright, but bottom line on him was that we didn’t draft him (though in hindsight that was a helluva trade). I do like that we are drafting sleepers in the later rounds (hooker, zawacki, ferrera to name a few), and we finally are starting to see some interesting names being circulated from the international front (castillo, franco, help me out here….maybe colorado?).
bottom line….do i think we should pony-up and throw a ton of money at burnett? very intrigued, but no. however, until we start developing legit SP prospects we will always have to explore the free agent/loss of draft pick options as a realistic possibility.
@ Az. I see what you’re saying. I think Burnett has proven that signing him 3 years ago would have been a good move. His arm is a few years older now, though. The best argument, imo, that you’ve made (I think at viva el birdos) is that the Cards shouldn’t “waste” Pujols prime. I still say that the opportunity cost is too high – especially in the 4th or 5th year of that contract. Losing our first round pick makes it that much easier of a decision to me.
It’s really a moot point, of course. The Cards aren’t players for Burnett and don’t intend to enter the fray.