You’ve waited long enough. Ranking time is finally here. Today we start with the bottom five, and we’ll be rolling out another five tomorrow before we break for Christmas. From there, we’ll pick up where we left off and have this thing wrapped up before the New Year. Without further ado…
#20 – Adam Ottavino – Age: 23*
Rank: erik – #19, roarke – N/A, azruavatar – #20
2008: (AA) 115.1 IP, 95K/52BB, 45% GB, 5.10 FIP
Player Comment: Well that was rough. We’re willing to give Ottavino some benefit of the doubt, as the jump from the Florida State League to the Texas League can be a tough one, and in an attempt to rediscover his “classic mechanics” this spring, Adam found himself in a mess instead. Sent to the Arizona Fall League to right the ship, he pitched a little better than his numbers would indicate. Ottavino needs to find some consistency and regain his confidence. ~erik
Ottavino was drafted because of his fastball and decent but unrefined secondary stuff. The fastball has been hampered by injuries and, as a result, the strikeouts and ground balls are declining as he advances. Ottavino likes to run his 4-seam fastball up on batters and is best when he’s striking batters out. What the strikeouts and walks next season to see if he can regain his footing and status within the organization. ~azruavatar
#19 – Fernando Salas – Age: 23
Rank: erik – #18, roarke – #19, azruavatar – N/A
2008: (AA) 74 IP, 100K/16BB, 41% GB, 3.48 FIP
Player Comment: I have a confession to make: every single time I write about either Salas or Francisco Samuel, I have to look them up to figure out which is which. They are very similar: right-handed relievers being used as a closer with high strikeout rates. What separates them (besides the fact that Salas has played at a level higher than Samuel) is that Salas has a stellar walk rate to go with his good strikeout rate. If he is able to maintain those rates going forward, he is assured of having a role in the major league bullpen. ~roarke
#18 – Lance Lynn – Age: 21
Rank: erik – #17, roarke – N/A, azruavatar – #19
2008: (A-) 18.2 IP, 22K/4BB, 41% GB, 2.05 FIP
(A) 8 IP, 7K/2BB, 38% GB, 5.93 FIP
Player Comment: Lynn perfectly fits what the Cardinals look for in a pitcher when it comes to draft day: Successful college pitcher? Check. Durable? Check. Clean mechanics? Check. Lynn is considered by the wisdom of the experts to be a safer bet to reach the majors than his predecessors, (read: Ottavino, Mortensen) because of his feel for his four pitch repertoire that includes a 89-92 MPH fastball, an above average curve, slider, and change. Like most Cardinal starters in the system, Lynn’s upside is limited, but if he can develop a third pitch he could be a solid #3. ~erik
#17 – Tyler Herron – Age: 22
Rank: erik – N/A, roarke – #16, azruavatar – #18
2008: (A+) 62 IP, 46K/14BB, 49% GB, 3.85 FIP
(AA) 81.1 IP, 59K/29BB, 44% GB, 4.81 FIP
Player Comment: Herron was in our top ten last year after two consecutive solid seasons in the low minor leagues. His success continued at Palm Beach to start the season last year, but then he struggled after moving up to Springfield, which shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise for a 21 year old pitching for the first time in AA (in a good hitting environment in Springfield, to boot). I still feel like he has a lot of upside and his fall down our prospect board might say as much about the improving state of the Cardinals system as it does my faith in his potential. ~roarke
Herron is more of a “one step at a time” prospect that was moved too quickly. Numerous reports said that his velocity was down and the normal sharpness of his breaking ball wasn’t there this past season. We’ll see if he can rebound, hopefully the Cards will take it slower with him going forward. ~erik
#16 – Tyler Henley – Age: 23
Rank: erik – N/A, roarke – #17, azruavatar – #16
2008: (A+) 367 PAs, .280/.341/.438, .331 wOBA
Player Comment:
Henley’s 2008 campaign was shortened due to injuries but it should be reminiscent of another prospect’s season two years ago – Jon Jay’s 2007 season. These players are remarkably similar showing a broad range of skills but lacking the star making power that so many look for in players. Henley is an above average centerfielder with average or better power, good contact skills, an acceptable walk rate and potential to refine his skill set in the future. He’s another left-handed bat buried deep in the system behind the likes of Rasmus, Jones and Jay but he projects as an everyday centerfielder in the future. ~azruavatar
*Age is as of April 1st, 2009 ~ approx. the start of the minor league season.
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guys,
Not sure where to post this, and can’t find the email addresses for site admins.
Anyway, I head to teh Dominican Republic for 12 days, Dec 24-Jan 5, and am wondering if the season will still be going on then and, if so, which teams have Cards prospects. All I can find is a schedule that ends Dec. 21, but presumably the playoffs then begin. Do you have any leads on when (and where) the playoffs will be held?
Thanks,
El Sidd
Regular season ended yesterday for the DWL, so you’ll miss Amaury Marti. I’m pretty sure that the 1st place PR, DR, VZ and Mex. team play each other in a playoff once their regular seasons are over, and the latest season goes to Jan 5 for Puerto Rico. I believe then they have the Caribbean Series beginning Feb. 2. The games will be held in Mexico this year.
Poor AZ, getting his fours and fives mixed up. And surprised Henley even made the top 20.
it was one i definitely disagreed w/, but we’ll hash that out later
and apparently I’m the moron who can’t count to five, by the way
It’s a bit late for this suggestion, I’ll grant, as I imagine that the lower we go in this list, the less prospects will only be ranked by one or two bloggers; but it would be interesting to hear more dissenting opinions from the person(s) who didn’t have a prospect on their list.
Erik’s comment on Tyler Herron would be an example of this.
That said, I absolutely love the prospect list. I swear, this site and Goldstein’s top 11 get more anticipation out of me than Christmas.
That’s coming in the future. No worries; we love to air our grievances.
Great work, guys – thanks for all you do.
Question: What are the odds that the 3 SPs mentioned end up as relievers?
Follow-up Question: If any of these 3 end up as relievers, would they rank above or below Adam Reifer? I’m guessing I already know erik’s answer…
I hate putting actual odds on it but Ottavino seems the most likely followed by Herron and then Lynn. Ottavino profiles well as a reliever with a plus fastball whereas Herron would be more of a McClellan type and Lynn would be a groundball machine in the pen.
If any of them are converted to relievers, they’d be pretty deep in the system potentially behind guys like Salas, Samuel, Reifer and Gregerson.
Wouldn’t Lynn have to become a groundball pitcher before he became a groundball machine?
that’s true. His GB/FO ratio in college was 66:68, and he was around 40% combined with Batavia and QC. In Law’s scouting report he said he has a 2 seamer, but from what I understand he gets the job done more with locating his 4 seamer well, as well as a plus curve. I don’t really think his future is in the bullpen, myself. I’d say if anyone is moved, it’s Ottavino.
touche. I had it in my head that his GB rates were better than average — in reality they’re slightly below average.
I always thought Lynn was a good comparison to Aaron Harang. Thought? Big guy, good feel for pitching, similar pitching reportiore, etc. Minus this year, due to injuries, he has been a very solid pitcher and if Lynn could turn into anything like him then he could fit very well into a solid pitcher for many years.
I like the Joe Blanton comparision for Lynn. If he turns into that, no complaints from me.
you may have been directing your question to one of teh admins who came up with the list….but i would be shocked if lynn ended up a reliever…he has SP written all over him
It would be surprising but not out of the realm of possibility. If McClellan hadn’t gotten hurt I doubt he would’ve been considered as a reliever, either.
I still hold out hope for Ottavino, but fear that he won’t make it.
what separates salas and samuel is the walk rate, but what really separates them is stuff. samuel has amazing stuff where salas is more of an average stuff guy. samuel might have the best pure stuff in the entire organization including the major league roster.
agreed. Salas is more of a pitchability guy, whereas Samuel is raw but has a lot more upside. I find Salas’ HR rate is somewhat worrisome as well.
Right, that’s why Reifer and Samuel make 16 and 19 on my list and Salas is in my hard to figure out category. My understanding is that his curve is his best pitch and that’s usually not a good sign for a reliever. AAA should ferret out if if he’s a happy surprise or a non prospect.
Thanks Erik.
Is that playoff series of 1st place teams different from the Carribean series? If so, do you know where the playoff series is being held?
Too bad to miss Amuari Marty. Of course, does anyone ever really catch him?
Separately, it is interesting to see the comments on Tyler Herron’s velocity and breaking ball effectiveness. My latest statistical addiction is running regression trees on pitching variables as predictors of the future, and his don’t match up very nicely from 2007 to 2008.
Darn, meant to add another sentence:
Anyway, I wondered if he had just really had some weaknesses revealed at AA, or whether it was an injury. Seems like the latter may have been a contributor if his pitches were noticeably slipping.
I hope he’s OK – he’s one of my favorite of the STL pitching prospects.
will sleeper prospects Nick Additon and Richard Castillo ever get to be highly regarded prospects
I put them in the interesting but too little information category. If anybody was raving about their stuff then their stats would have me excited. But what’s been said here and elsewhere couldn’t be put in the “rave” category.
I’ve asked before about these 2 guys, and the answer was basically that they both didn’t quite have the velocity to be considered top prospects. I think I was told that both top out in the mid 80′s (85-87). I was definately disappointed to hear that given their ages and impressive statlines. Hopefully they can both add a few mph’s as they mature.
where did you get the velocity for the two?,as i was really impressed with nick additon’s stat line
this pitching proflie of him says 90-92
http://www.soxxcountry.com/lgreports/news/html/players/player_20588.html
i believe it was during a live chat with either erick or AZ
Sidfynch: Tyler’s velo’s did not go down this past season. He was 88-93 all summer. I don’t know where this information is coming from. After every outing I talked to him and there was not a dip in velocity. In Hawaii in his first 2 outings his velo was down because of a 8 week layoff for vacation but his last outing he was actually 91 – 93. No big deal but I just wanted to end speculation that something was wrong with Tyler. I agree he struggled in AA but I also thought it was an over reaction to send him back to Palm Beach. When he was demoted his last 4 starts he could have won but the pen coughed it up. Just my opinion.
rhsuper, i am sure someone just saw tyler on a night where he might not have had his best stuff & all of the sudden his velocity is gone & somethings wrong.. it has happened to pj , he might throw the 1st couple of innings at 84-86 & if the hitters arent getting good swings at his FB he will stay right there.(but no one reported he was hitting 93 at sacramento late in the season).most dont realize that a pitcher some nights just doesnt feel good & the FB might not have the zip on it & some nights they fell great & the FB is actually harder than normal..thats why i have said all along from AA up All the starting pitchers throw 87-91 except ottavino & boggs. & yes that includes soft tossing PJ..i have seen all of them several times & i have seen them all with there velocity down & all of them throwing a little harder than normal..
Well, no King or Deggerman so far at least ! :) Henley is a stretch but at least he hasn’t proven himself unworthy.
These are intelligent choices as a start althought the Henley choice really surprised me also. Herron seems a little bit high but he’s in my top twenty. Ottavino is appropriately placed and I like the comments about him switching to relief. I’ve long supported the idea, a la Todd Worrell and Todd Wellemeyer, that, if a pitcher with great “stuff” consistently fails in one role then they should be tried in another. If they succeed in that role then they should stay there. Of course Wainwright’s career contradicts that but I’d give Ottavino about another third of a season of floundering in a starting role before I’d slap him in the closer role in Springfield or Memphis.
I wouldn’t say Wainwright consistently failed at starting. He didn’t have a great season ERA wise in 2005 but he threw 180 innings and had stretches where he looked like an ace in the making. He had a good enough season to be in contention to be the fifth starter in ’06, even though he lost it.
does anyone think Justin Fiske will be in the top 20 his stats where impressive and is a lefty.
The simple answer is “no”. His history isn’t long enough for a guy w/o great “stuff” to support that high of ranking this year. If he does it again next year……..
Roarke and AZ, curious what made you guys put Henley at #17 and #16 respectively over someone like Shane Peterson, who isn’t going to make the top 24.
imo, Henley has more power potential and is far and away the better defender. Peterson’s a slightly larger Shane Robinson for me with below average pop and a good corner outfield glove.
Not saying your wrong, but where did you hear that Henley’s glove is so good? I’m just doubting it for a couple reasons 1) He played mostly corner this season and 2) he doesn’t have the greatest speed.
I also think Peterson’s power potential is underrated and he has more than Henley, he played in hitters hell in college and was an extremely young junior this season.
I’ve never heard a bad word about Henley’s speed. The 2007 draft tracker for MLB comments “Henley is quick. He has a very good first step in the outfield and can track down a lot of balls that most outfielders cannot get to in college baseball.” Remember too that the Cardinals play Jones in LF all the time too and he would be a capable CF. I don’t worry too much about where the Cardinals chose to play their outfielders when the scouting reports tell me he could play CF.
Peterson’s power potential probably is underrated but, personally, I’ll take Henley’s over Shane’s.
I think we are going to have an opportunity to explain our picks in greater detail in the future, but the short answer (for me, at least) comes down to track record. Henley has shown his all around skills for two years, including 367 plate appearances at Palm Beach, while we only have 271 professional plate appearances at the very bottom of the system on which to judge Peterson.
Yeah, but we also know the Cards liked Peterson to take him with the #59 pick and give him $683,000 compared to Henley who got $150,000 with the #262 pick.
Now I do worry about Peterson’s strikeouts but I would rather have him than Henley.