Two prospects whom we agree on position, one who hits the spread and two who cause some real divergence. Prospects #15-11 are household names but we don’t always agree on their value.
#15 – Niko Vasquez – Age: 20
Rank: erik – 16, roarke – 18, azruavatar – 17
2008: (R) 237 PA, .312/.405/.460, .384 wOBA
(A) 44 PA, .128/.205/.154, .175 wOBA
Player Comment:
Almost everyone that follows the Cardinals minor league system fell in love with Vasquez after the draft last year and for good reason – his patience at the plate and solid power are alluring. He is the young, high upside position player that many of us pined for in the draft. Only time will tell if he will stay at shortstop and continue his success as he progresses through the system, but I read absolutely nothing into his struggles during his brief time at Quad Cities. He might be the most intriguing position player below Springfield in the system. ~roarke
#14 – Clayton Mortensen – Age: 23
Rank: erik – 13, roarke – 14, azruavatar – 14
2008: (AA) 59.2 IP, 48K/22BB, 61% GB, 4.35 FIP
(AAA) 80 IP, 57K/42BB, 48% GB, 5.83 FIP
Player Comment:
Above average groundball rates and good strikeout rates are hallmarks of above average pitchers. Mortensen was rushed through the system after being drafted in 2007 and his results in AAA show it. A drop in K rate in AA compared to 2007 was followed with another drop in both strikeouts and groundballs upon reaching AAA. Mortensen was billed as a college pitcher with some projection given his lanky frame and sinking fastball. His command comes and goes leaving questions about what his overall potential really is. If he walks batters like he did in Quad Cities, he’s a front end pitcher; Springfield and he’s a middle of the rotation. If his command doesn’t improve from the Batavia/Memphis levels, he’ll be hampered to be a league average pitcher. The end result is likely somewhere in between the three options and Cardinal fans may find out as soon as mid-2009. ~azruavatar
#13 – Jonathan Jay – Age: 24
Rank: erik – 11, roarke – 9, azruavatar – 13
2008: (AA) 426 PA, .306/.373/.457, .359 wOBA
(AAA) 64 PA, .345/.406/.500, .397 wOBA
Player Comment:
Jay bounced back from his injury plagued 2007 season to have an outstanding (and quite underrated, if you ask me) 2008 season. He had a solid all around season at Springfield and continued his success in his limited appearance at Memphis. I think Jay projects as David DeJesus with a tick better slash stats. He is the epitome of solid but not spectacular and it would be difficult to imagine that he wouldn’t have a role in the major leagues in his future. ~roarke
I dream of the day when the minors get a fielding metric that utilizes a PBP system, but until then we have BP’s FRAA. For what it is worth, Jon Jay’s glove was worth +17 runs in center field last season, which is outstanding. His bat would play better there, but there’s that Colby fellow in the system. Color me impressed with what he did with the bat this past season, and if the fielding stats are to be believed, Jay is a solid all-around prospect. ~erik
#12 – Allen Craig – Age: 24
Rank: erik – 14, roarke – 10, azruavatar – 9
2008: (AA) 567 PAs, .304/.374/.494, .376 wOBA
Player Comment:
If David Freese wasn’t in the system, we’d be discussing Allen Craig as the Cardinals next in line for the 3rd base job. He’s hit 24 and 22 HRs over the last two years with decent walk rates and plus power. Questions about his defense have lingered and he’s been used in LF as well as 3B given the depth at the position. The power is real and the contact skills are good enough to hit for average. Expect him to see time in AAA at multiple positions as he gets squeezed by Wallace and Freese. ~azruavatar
#11 – Pete Kozma – Age: 20
Rank: erik – 6, roarke – 11, azruavatar – 12
2008: (A) 434 PA, .284/.362/.398, .339 wOBA
(AA) 94 PA, .130/.223/.182, .195 wOBA
Player Comment:
As most of you know, I’ve taken up the position of the resident Kozma apologist here at FR. You can read why here, but I’ll give you the cliff-notes version as to why I’m a Kozma believer: he’s a solid defender at a premium position, and this past season he hit much better than what most people give him credit for. He’s not going to be a star, but having an above average shortstop is very, very valuable. ~erik
The most controversial prospect this side of 2006 Anthony Reyes, Kozma started off the year hot and cooled to post good numbers relative to the league. Average or better tools across the board with one exception, he’ll need to keep the walk rate up to counteract the below average power. The offensive plateau for shortstops is low but even then Kozma may have trouble breaching it. ~azruavatar
Kozma is the human roller coaster of a prospect – we probably underrated him before last season and then a month in we started to overrate him. It would not surprise me if he is a top 5 prospect next year, but it also would not surprise me if he fell off the list. ~roarke
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First post here…..First visit here…. Its ironic that I’ve been contemplating Pete Kozma lately. I think his #11 ranking is pretty much spot on. Now I admit, I was one of the guys SCREAMING PORCELLO when Kozma was drafted. But looking at it now, Kozma is as you guys say he is. Not spectacular with any one tool, but right around average in every tool with the potential to be a bit above average in several tools. If you take a look at Porcello’s stats as a 19 year old pitcher, he is about the same as Kozma if you ask me. Having not watched him pitch, and just looking at stats alone, Porcello seems to me as though he is right there with Kozma. Less that 6 ks per inning in A ball. A little over a 2:1 K/BB ratio. He certainly isn’t a Clayton Kershaw, that’s for sure!
So to sum up, I like Kozma. At the time, Porcello was the only guy I really wanted ahead of Kozma, as I really like it when my team drafts a high upside high school kid at a premium position. I expect Kozma to be competing for a big league spot by 2011, and maybe a cup of coffee in 2010. I like Kozma. Period.
Nice write-ups, guys!
I had no idea that Jon Jay’s defense was such a plus (other than the zero errors as a pro, that is). Where did you get the FRAA, Erik? Is it available at BP’s non-pay portion of their website?
I’d love to see the FRAA for *all* Cardinal prospects, as well as the Peak Davenport Translations, included with their write-ups. Thanks!
You can find the numbers here http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/minoreqa.php
They are at the end of the other stats. It’s not in the sphere of PBP stats such as UZR, PMR or +/- by Dewan, but it’s all we have right now. I’d go from whatever you hear from the scouting reports, and I haven’t heard much about his defense, honestly, other than his arm is below average.
I’m high on Kozma, too, simply because I think he has a very good chance to become a big leaguer, as Erik says, at a premium defensive position. His ceiling may not be that high, but producing a major league SS would be a feat for the Cardinals system. Keep in mind that we acquired Izturis, Eckstein, Renteria, and Royce Clayton. No Cards SS prospect has stuck and become a regular major leaguer (def not Brendan Ryan and I don’t count Tripp Cromer), in a very long time. I think Kozma could be the guy. To me he belongs in the top 10. How are you choosing the ultimate ranking? Lowest total sum of rankings? It’s not averaging, based on those numbers.
“Lowest total sum of rankings?”
This is how we’ve handled it with the exception of some wonky tie-breakers.
>>Cards SS prospect has stuck and become a regular major leaguer (def not Brendan Ryan and I don’t count Tripp Cromer), in a very long time.<<
It didn’t happen with the Cards but he came from the Cards system–Jack Wilson. Before that … Gary Templeton? I have to be missing someone.
I am a bigger Kozma fan than most. He gets on base, plays good D, can run. In 165 games (about a full season) he has 7 HR and 61 RBI–Not terrible. He has also stolen 16 bases.
Seeing how Niko is up at 15th and NONE of you ranked him that high there must be some large disparity in some of the rankings. How did you weight a non ranking? 21 points? or more? Reifer, Hill and Walters all took a 15th slot yet got N/A from the other 2.
I LOVE how much the current system can be looked at from different angles and produce different results. There is no clear list of 20 prospects anymore with the only difference being in the order they are listed.
“How did you weight a non ranking? 21 points? or more?”
1st place was worth 20 points down to 20th place which was worth 1 point. Non-ranking was worth 0 points. We bumped Reifer, Hill and Walters because they were the only three to not make a second list.
OT: Have you guys heard anything about the two relievers the Cardinals signed this week from the Carribean(Dominican i believe)…one is a lefty, the other only 18
11 through 14 are very similar to mine. I went to Erik’s 11/29 commentary on Kozma and noted in my comments that I also had him ranked 11th and mentioned that he could go radically either way. Great minds……
I was surprised that you rank Mortenson even lower than I do (12) but I guess that verifies that he’s not shown much to get excited about.
I went to David Dejesus’ Baseball Reference page and the comparison of Jay’s best case scenario to him is incredibly good. Any further information that can bolster his defensive rep (or not) would be appreciated.
My big difference with you is Nico. All humorous hyperbole aside his scouting reports, first year stats and high ceiling potential have me excited enough to rank him 8th. Certainly Kozma’s more of a sure thing but he’s also surer not to star.
Anyway your list is very solid and lots of fun. Great job so far!
My biggest problem with Niko is that I don’t believe he will be able to stick at shortstop. Still, if he could make it at 2nd and not have to go to 3rd, that would CERTAINLY help him out a lot! What is it with the Cardinals and not being able to produce middle infielders. (Or at least produce them and keep them). Was Tommy Herr the last 2nd basemen that we produced through our system? I’m sure i”m missing somebody……but he is the last one that stands out.
how about…placido polanco?
or adam kennedy…kinda
me again…luis alicea
I’m actually assuming that he’ll move to second. I haven’t heard anything in his scouting report that makes that sound impossible for him. I also don’t know why there’s talk about making him into a 3b. That spot’s pretty crowded already.
It’s nice to have a solid farm system again. It’s been awhile! Recently there have been years where this “second 10″ of prospects would be comparable to the Cardinals’ “top 10″….maybe even better!
Merry Christmas to all…