We’re gonna wrap this up before the New Year. Pitchers dominate today’s entry with a touch of third baseman. Hopefully, this helps cope with the holiday hangover.
[azru edit: Adding is apparently problematic for me as Alex noted in the comments. #9 -> #10 and vice versa]
[azru edit #2: After arriving home and double checking the holy spreadsheet of prospect rankings, I found another error in the individual ranking of Boggs but he remains the #10 prospect. Sorry for the confusion.]
#10 – Mitch Boggs – Age: 25 (by opening day)
Rank: erik – 9, roarke – 12, azruavatar – 7
2008: (AAA) 125.1 IP, 81K/46BB, 49% GB, 4.51 FIP
(MLB) 34 IP, 13K/22BB, 51% GB, 6.37 FIP
Player Comment:
Boggs is a little vanilla, but he receives high ranks from me because he’s pitched well at every level of the minors and I believe his presence in the system is a big reason why the Cardinals will not do something desperate this winter, like say signing Jon Garland. (Hopefully I didn’t jinx anything there). Seeing him pitch on television a few times, I came across quite impressed with his sinker, but it’s quite obvious he needs to get more consistent with his breaking ball. If the Cards can’t pick up anyone worthwhile in free agency (and the pickin’s are getting slimmer), then I no trouble letting Boggs, Walters and perhaps McClellan duke it out for the 5th starter job. A 4th/5th starter really is about all he portends to be, unless he can pick up a swing and miss pitch. ~erik
Jeff Luhnow doesn’t get enough credit for this 2005 draftee but he deserves it. Boggs has a plus fastball with both velocity and movement. His numbers, however, are consistently underwhelming in comparison to seeing his stuff on video. His curveball is a good breaking pitch although location can be an issue. With two above average pitches, there’s no reason he can’t fill out the back of a rotation. His long term upside is dependent on smoothing out some kind of a third pitch and refining how he puts away batters. ~azruavatar
#9 – Jess Todd – Age: 22
Rank: erik – 7, roarke – 8, azruavatar – 11
2008: (A+) 27.1 IP, 35K/7BB, 45% GB, 1.52 FIP
(AA) 103 IP, 81K/24BB, 53% GB, 4.37 FIP
(AAA) 22.2 IP, 20K/10BB, 48% GB, 5.63 FIP
Player Comment:
There were a lot of us that were really excited about Jess Todd until we saw him pitch at the Futures Game. Maybe it was a bad day, but I didn’t see the dominating stuff that I expected. His numbers at Springfield and Memphis weren’t as dominating as those in Palm Beach, which is probably to be expected of a guy his age, but consider my enthusiasm tempered. He still ended up as the highest ranked starting pitcher on my list, but I’m not sure if that says more about Todd or the pitchers that I had ranked ahead of him last year. ~roarke
What I like about Todd isn’t so much his pitches but his pitchability. I like the fact that he was able to quickly assimilate the ability to sink and cut his fastball, which has made it difficult for opponents pick him up. Then you throw in his sharp slider and I can see why batters didn’t make a lot of contact against him on a whole. What I’m iffy on is his ultimate role. It’s not just his smaller frame, it’s the effort which he throws with. With his repertoire and pitching acumen I would not write him off as a starter, but it’s hard for me to envision. It’s easy to picture him as a solid set up man, or maybe even as a poor man’s closer. ~erik
#8 - Jaime Garcia – Age: 22
Rank: erik – 10, roarke – 13, azruavatar – 3
2008: (AA) 35 IP, 41K/16BB, 62% GB, 2.55 FIP
(AAA) 71 IP, 59K/26BB, 55% GB, 4.17 FIP
(MLB) 16 IP, 8K/8BB, 63% GB, 7.05 FIP
Player Comment:
Placing Garcia proved difficult for me. On one hand, the success rate for pitchers undergoing Tommy John is pretty high. On the other hand, it’s not totally a slam dunk he’ll come back 100% and of course he’ll be of no use to the Cardinals in 2009. Despite the fact he’s going to lose a season, he’ll should be ready come back at a relatively young age. His ability to miss bats and burn worms is most impressive, and I believe his upside is the highest among Cardinal starters in the system. ~erik
I had the same problem as Erik: fully healthy, Garcia would have made my top 5, but I wasn’t sure how to value him at this point. I fully expect Garcia to provide (more) value at the major league level, but I felt that the injury and loss of a season had to be taken into account. The truth is that my ranking is equal to a vote of “I’m not sure”. ~roarke
Being the obvious outlier, there’s some justification to be made here. I’m confident that the Cardinals can perform a TJ surgery. Beyond that, Garcia is the only starting pitching prospect that I have high hopes for in the system. A good fastball with a plus curveball and a serviceable change-up. While age for pitchers isn’t something that worries me overmuch, he’ll still be young after missing a year. Name another pitcher in the system that strikes batters out at his rate and gets those kind of groundball numbers. You can’t. ~azruavatar
#7 - David Freese – Age: 25
Rank: erik – 12, roarke – 4, azruavatar – 8
2008: (AAA) 510 PAs, .306/.361/.511, .387 wOBA
Player Comment:
While in the San Diego system, Freese was buried in the depth chart behind Kevin Kouzmanoff and Chase Headley. Now a St. Louis Cardinal, it has to feel a little bit like deja vu all over again for Freese. The main knock on Freese is he is considered to be old for a prospect, but he was drafted as a fifth year senior out of college and within just two full minor league seasons he appears to be ready for a big league job. While there are questions as to whether Wallace or Craig should be moved to another position, there aren’t those doubts about Freese; if anything, defense is one of the better assets to his game, if not the best. ~erik
My feeling is that Freese could probably already be a major league average third baseman. He’s got a solid bat and is probably a better defensive third baseman than either Craig or Wallace. He will probably never be a star, but his prime years could provide some 25-30 homerun seasons with solid plate discipline and good defense – I’m thinking that a Mike Lowell-ish upside (probably without the gold glove, though) isn’t out of the question. ~roarke
The 2008 power was aberrant in my opinion and I don’t see more than 20 HR power in the bigs. I’m not a believer in the bat but I have to set that aside to a certain extent if I’m going to be objective about his statistics. He made a significant jump from A ball to AAA but the overall skillset and what I’ve seen of him leaves me uninspired that he’s more than what he is now. This feels like a Mark Hamilton ranking to me, i.e. one I’m going to regret a year from now, but rationally I think he’s a top 10 choice. ~azruavatar
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The disparity in rankings of Garcia i can understand but the difference on Freese was surprising. I think he would be more than capable in backing up Santa at 3rd base this year and maybe taking over next year. He at least will develop more this season in AAA.
Strange to see Boggs ahead of Todd given that two of three writers had Todd a few spots ahead in their individual rankings.
Love the writeups – can’t wait for the rest!
I assume Erik means that Boggs has pitched well at every level in the “minors.” His text should be revised accordingly.
Few pitchers come right up and dominate, it was just 6 starts. Three of his starts were not bad, his two blow ups are what drug down his stats. My text remains, thank you very much.
There’s only one level in the “majors” which is how your text reads currently. Mike’s comment wasn’t a knock on Boggs.
Azru is correct. The knock was not on Boggs but on the text. I assumed that “minors” was meant for the reason he stated. But it’s true not only that it’s the minors, not the majors, that has levels, but also that Boggs, however much promise he may have shown in the majors, hardly excelled at that level. Therefore, if that sentence is going to remain unchanged, I can only conclude that it’s both badly written and inaccurate.
Is anyone else having problems with the layout of the site?
Everytime i reload, the page format looks fine, then it floats to the right side, overlapping the videos, etc…
I had the same problem. I went to my view options and changed it to full screen. That worked.
If McClellan becomes a starter, do you think that Boggs will be given an opportunity to take over the open bullpen spot? Do you think he’d excel in this role?
My understanding is that Boggs has only two pitches and excelled as a reliever in college. Unfortunately I haven’t heard any talk about switching him but it sure seems reasonable. His stats as a starter aren’t totally underwhelming but I see journeyman starter at best. His two pitches were enough to get him voted best pitching prospect in the PCL so I suspect he could do well as a reliever.
I have Garcia and Todd at 4 and 5 on my list. Garcia because he has far and away the most upside of any starter in the system and Todd because I’m impressed by his success at every level (and maybe because I haven’t seen him pitch). I see Todd as making the majors, making it soon, and being at least moderately successful in some role. Other than Perez I can’t say that about any other pitching prospect. Okay maybe Motte if he’s perfected his second pitch over the winter.
Freese is an interesting guy in an interesting spot. Here’s a guy who might be able to step in at third right now, play it well, and hit .270 with 20 homers and maybe improve from there. On the other side he probably doesn’t have any trade value and probably isn’t going to get the chance to do it for the Cardinals. I really think the age discrimination is unfair in his case. He was older when he was drafted but he couldn’t have gotten here any quicker.
@ Mike G. My apologies, I misunderstood. Thanks for the correction.
No offense and you’re welcome. I still recommend revising that sentence,
I’m curious about erik’s remark re: Todd’s size. It seems like there are more and more smaller pitchers making it to the big leagues as starters lately. Rotoworld lists Todd as 5’11″ and 210, while the current NL Cy Young winner is supposedly the same height and 40 pounds lighter. Oswalt is listed as 6’0″, Pedro Martinez is 5’11″, etc. All of these guys have had good success despite being altitudinally challenged (at least, compared to, say, the Big Unit).