Baseball America ranked the Cardinal farm system 8th overall. That’s a pretty big feather in Jeff Luhnow’s cap, especially considering the mess he inherited.
#6 – Jason Motte – Age: 26
Rank: erik – 8, roarke – 7, azruavatar – 6
2008: (AAA) 66.2 IP, 110K/26BB, 36% GB, 2.59 FIP
(MLB) 11 IP, 16K/3BB, 45% GB, 1.02 FIP
Player Comment:
Could you ask for more from a reliever? 110Ks in 66 innings is a truly absurd number. The complaints all center on Motte’s lack of a good second pitch to complement his fastball. Those are valid concerns and ones that I’ve voiced myself. That said, the results are hard to argue with. Motte is already prepped to be a superb setup man and potentially more than that. ~azruavatar
Motte is a fun player, and I find it amusing and interesting that with Motte’s success the Cards are now moving more of their good-arm, no-hit catchers to the bump. Motte may only have one pitch, but it’s hard to argue with the results. Toying around at Fangraphs, we find the only pitcher that throws the fastball as often as Motte is Grant Balfour, the late-blooming flame-thrower who found appreciation with the AL champs. I’m not sure how long a pitcher can get away with only a really good fastball, but I’m looking forward to finding out. ~erik
Motte was one of the more impressive guys I saw during Spring Training last year. I think he can succeed in small doses, but without the quality second offering that Az hoped for above, I think he will get hit at the big league level if he is overexposed. I’m betting that he will develop something to keep hitters honest and turn into a dominating reliever (I’ve said it before, but I’d love to see Bruce Sutter teach him the splitter). ~roarke
#5 – Daryl Jones – Age: 22
Rank: erik – 5, roarke – 5, azruavatar – 10
2008: (A+) 352 PAs, .326/.403/.476, .385 wOBA
(AA) 151 PAs, .290/.404/.500, .380 wOBA
Player Comment:
Daryl Jones was quite good in 2008. He was quite horrendous in 2007. The Palm Beach numbers are predicated on a very high BABIP and the ISO is good but not great. The Carl Crawford comparison still sticks out for me (although I know others like a Kenny Lofton one) and that’s a tremendous ceiling to have but the floor for Jones remains someone who never sees the majors. ~azruavatar
I see no major difference between Jones’ breakout and Austin Jackson’s a couple of seasons back. Everything finally felt into place for Jones: He started to square up on the ball, he drew more walks and even showed some power. I expected Jones to eventually come back to earth as the season went on, but his performance remained steady throughout the season and Jones showed no signs of slowing once brought up to AA. Take it for what it’s worth, but his peak translated EqA this past season was .304, forecasting him to be in all star territory during his age 25-27 seasons. ~erik
Jones has more upside than anyone in the system besides Rasmus and Wallace. The difference between Jones and those guys is the likelihood that he will reach that potential. Rasmus and Wallace both seem like sure things, while Jones is quite a bit more in doubt. Last season’s success at multiple levels certainly makes his future success seem more likely, but after previous disappointing seasons, it will take more than one good year before all doubts are erased. ~roarke
#4 – Bryan Anderson – Age: 22
Rank: erik – 4, roarke – 6, azruavatar – 4
2008: (AA) 87 PAs, .383/.402/.519, .397 wOBA
(AAA) 274 PAs, .281/.361/.379, .324 wOBA
Player Comment:
After a hot start, Anderson suffered a swan dive in the 2nd half of the season. Some find that more worrisome, but I don’t find it unusual for a young catcher to peter out as the season winds down. What encourages me is his improvement with his plate blocking skills and controlling the running game. The average catcher contributes so little offensively, so having a potential .280-.295 hitting backstop is quite valuable, whether or not he ever hits for power. ~erik
My opinion of Anderson has not changed since I made my list last year. I really like him (especially after getting the opportunity to do a Q & A with him during the season), but I have reservations about catching prospects with no power and only average defensive chops. There is too much that can go wrong and a powerless bat doesn’t play as well anywhere else. All that being said, I think he does have good value that should be exploited by the Cardinals, either by trading him, or by giving him a legitimate opportunity to win the backup job this spring. I see him having a lefty-only version of Gregg Zaun’s career if everything works out well for him, which isn’t a terrible thing. ~roarke
I worry that there’s an element of group think with regard to Anderson. He has a good offensive skillset for a catcher (hits for average, draws walks) but lacks the power to make him more than a league average hitter. What this really comes down to is position. A league average hitter who is also a league average catcher is something like a 3+ win player. ~azruavatar
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It was nice to hear callis talk about the depth of the system because ive only been follwing the cards prospects in detail for a little over a year now and i was wondering if i just thought the system was deep because i became familar with more players or if it really was a deep system. Good to hear.
You said this was 3-6. Where the hell is 3?
Haha, agreed. Although we all know that Rasmus and Wallace will probably go 1-2, and thus know who will be #3…very misleading title! Seriously though, I love it. Great work dissecting the farm.
Two days in a row I have issues with numbers. Editors, where art thou?
what if I told you this was a zero based list?
Amaury Marti is prospect zero.
I bet I can guess the last three.
I don’t get why everyone seems so in love with Jones. Right he looks like another Mark Hamilton, great season that cause you to look at him better than he really is. Now Jones does supposedly have the tools to back up his surge but I don’t see him as top 5 right now, maybe next year though. I would probably agree with Az on the 10 spot ranking.
Jones has a number of things going for him that Hamilton did not at this time last year. Hamilton’s numbers weren’t anything to excited about when he moved to AA while Jones excelled there (small sample size, but it’s still impressive). Hamilton was also 23 when his “breakout” occured while Jones was 21. Hamilton proved to be a “one year wonder” but another guy (Joe Mather) who had a “fluky” 2007 is now part of the big club’s future.
Jones (like Mather) has the physical tools that Hamilton does not. Jones has tools better than almost anyone in the system. Even if Jones only develops into an average offensive player (similar to 2008 Carl Crawford or Willie Harris), he could develop into an excellent defensive LF (2008 Carl Crawford or Willie Harris). That is still an extremely valuable player.
Hamilton was a one dimensional player, not at all like Jones. If i remember right Hamilton was also drafted out of college, Tulane maybe ( I didn’t look it up). Jones was drafted out of high school and he required some seasoning. Jones was drafted as maybe one of the top all around athletes in the draft. Not the best player but the best athlete. We took a shot on him that all of his pure athleticism would develop into a major league baseball player and i think we are beginning to see that happening. This past year was his coming out party, this next year will tell us a lot about his future career path, even more so than this past year.
I agree that Hamilton is one dimensional, you can say Chris Duncan for a good comp to Hamilton IMO, but Jones right now has only had one good season and why he has the tools to support him I don’t think a total jump from nobody to top 5 is warranted.
I understand your stance and i sort of agree with it, but saying that Jones was a nobody i don’t believe is accurate. When Jones was drafted we knew exactly what we were getting. He had a huge ceiling and a very low floor, and we have been waiting for the past 3 years for him to begin to progress. Once he began to show hints of a great prospect it is only natural for us to rocket him up our lists because of his high ceiling. Jones was simply a waiting game. If he never develops hes a nobody but if he does he is a top five prospect.
This talk about Daryl Jones reminds me of another guy who we drafted as a great athlete out of high school in hopes that we could will him into becoming a ball player. Tommy Pham will be entering his age 21 season, he’ll probably be starting at A+ ball, and he put up a line of .218/.284/.442 in the QC last year. Sounds intriginlgy similar to Jones who entered his age 21 season in A+ ball after posting a .217/303./.296 line at the QC and exploded last season. Pham definitely has more pop than Jones, the ball really jumps off his bat. If he can put it together like Jones did then we will be talking about Tommy Pham in next years FR top 20 just like we talk about Daryl Jones today.
I’ve seen Pham and Jones and when comparing just tools, Jones was impressive but Pham was just electric. He runs like the wind, has a rocket arm and has more power. The problem is he is a merciless hacker, something Jones never really was, even when he was struggling. If Pham ever figures things out, watch out.
I thought i heard somewhere that Pham had made the switch to the mound. (or maybe i just expected it)
I kinda circulated that idea a while back. Pitching is more athletic in nature and lends itself to many of the athletic traits Pham has. I just have a general belief that the more athletic a kid is he is more suited to pitch and the more athletic pitchers are less likely to get hurt. Mulder is the exception that proves the theory. He was truly one of the more athletic guys I have seen and he shoulder went to total crap, but even then he was able to “pitch” with a destroyed shoulder because the rest of his body worked so damn well.
I’m assuming that the 1-3 prospects are Rasmus, Wallace, and Perez.
My question is regarding Perez. My understanding is that because he spent more than 50 days on the active roster, he is no longer eligible for RotY voting. If he’s not eligible to be RotY, why is he still considered a prospect? Mather is in the same boat – he’s no longer eligible so it makes sense for him to be left off of the rankings this year.
Just curious is all.
We use IP (45) and ABs (130) as deliminators rather than raw numbers of days on the roster.
Just keep in mind that while many of these prospects may or may not fit the Cardinal mold, they were picked that way on purpose, they are all not being “raised” to be future redbirds. Will be interesting to see how these young player progress next season and if the Cardinals need to trade to make a playoff.
Padres are waiting for a pitcher, they like the lower velocity control guys, Cardinals have some of those.