The top three hold little in the way of surprise. It serves as further illustration though of how far this system has come in recent years that each of these players would be at least even odds to be a league average major league contributor right now.
#3 – Chris Perez – Age: 24
Rank: erik – 3, roarke – 3, azruavatar – 5
2008: (AAA) 25.1 IP, 38K/12BB, 50% GB, 3.59 FIP
(MLB) 41.2 IP, 42K/22BB, 40% GB, 4.31 FIP
Player Comment:
I can understand the argument that Perez might not be ready to take over the closer’s role full time. I don’t necessarily agree with it, but I can understand it. However, I have a difficult time with the idea that the solution is to sign a “proven closer” for multiple years. In Chris Perez we have a cost-controlled young pitcher that can dominate the end of games. I think he is ready to assume that mantle now, but blocking his progress for the foreseeable future and spending available budget on a position of organizational strength would border on tragic. ~roarke
Chris Perez remains the best reliever in the Cardinals system. A fastball that sits 94-96 and touches 98 with a biting slider gives him a devastating arsenal to become the Cardinals future closer. Even upon advancing to the MLB, Perez continued to strike out a batter an inning with decent (for him) control. Avoiding a case of the late inning yips in the early save opportunities this season will be key for Perez to gain a foothold on a position he could hold for many years to come. ~azruavatar
All this footsie the Cardinals have played with Brian Fuentes makes me wonder what if the Cardinals properly esteem Perez. So his debut wasn’t completely mind-blowing. Handing out a big, three year contract to an aging pitcher that isn’t miles apart of Perez would have been a horrid idea and I’m glad it blew up. A one year stop gap option is justifiable, I suppose. I hope Perez comes to camp and shows the Cardinals how much wheel-spinning they were actually doing this winter haggling for a “proven closer”. ~erik
#2 – Brett Wallace – Age: 22
Rank: erik – 2, roarke – 2, azruavatar – 2
2008: (A) 177 PAs, .327/.418/.490, .398 wOBA
(AA) 57 PAs, .367/.456/.653, .474 wOBA
Player Comment:
Defensively limited players are not my thing. Wallace has a huge hurdle to overcome as someone who is likely no better than below average at 3B or average at 1B. The question is less about whether his bat will make up for that — it will — and more about how valuable he’ll really be when it’s all said and done. Does he become something like a +3 player (Justin Morneau 2008) or a +5 player (Kevin Youklis 2008)? Neither of those are comps, rather they serve as benchmarks for value: 3 wins = .300/.375/.500 or 5 wins = .300/.400/.550. Wallace is a true offensive talent, which is good because he’ll need it to carry him to the bigs. ~azruavatar
Mozeliak recently stated that Craig, Freese and Wallace will get looks at different positions this spring besides 3B, with Wallace getting some time in left field. Envisioning the Walrus lumbering around in the outfield isn’t pretty, but no matter. The Cardinals drafted him for one reason: His bat, and it should more than make up for his defensive liabilities. But AZ stated, it does cut into his overall value. I still hold to a tiny sliver of hope he could stick at 3B, at least for a couple of seasons. ~erik
I was not particularly enamored with the Wallace pick on draft day, but his immediate success quickly won me over. I am as concerned as the others about what position Wallace will ultimately play, but his bat should play anywhere. Even if the most practical use for Wallace in the long run is as a trading chip to an American League team, his value in that role should be very high. I am hopeful that he is able to find a defensive home for the Cardinals for a few years, at least. ~roarke
#1 – Colby Rasmus – Age: 22
Rank: erik – 1, roarke – 1, azruavatar – 1
2008: (AAA) 386 PAs, .251/.345/.396, .324 wOBA
Player Comment:
Can hit for power? Check. Gets on base? Check. Plays plus defense in centerfield? Check. There was some gnashing of teeth this past season when Colby stumbled in AAA. Much like Albert has spoiled us in the big leagues, Colby has done the same in the minors raising expectations to a point where having an ok season just wasn’t enough. There’s little more to be said about Rasmus at this point: he’ll either pan out or he won’t. Bet the former. ~azruavatar
Colby is the total package. I don’t read a whole lot to his weird 2008 season, if anything it probably made him more mature. Not much else to say that hasn’t been said about Colby. I can’t wait to see him in action in 2009. ~erik
Despite Colby’s up and down 2008 season, my biggest worry about his future lies with the way he will be handled by the organization. The concern may not be warranted, but there have been enough questionable situations with other players in the organization that the awkward handling of Colby at the end of last season made me a bit nervous. Presuming that those kind of issues are not a factor, I fully expect Colby to be solid in year one and spectacular in the not-too-distant future. ~roarke
Entries (RSS)
First time poster, long time reader. Great work work guys. Roarke, totally agree on Colby- is there going to be issues between him and the organization into the future?
Question for all three, who from your prospective lists do you envision making the biggest jump in the rankings by this time next year?
I may not be one of the main posters but I think both Perez and Motte will be replaced on the “top prospect” section by a new set of relievers so there is a place where a jump could occur (Samuel, Salas, Reifer, etc.). I could see Lynn pulling a Mort or Todd and shooting up to AAA, I expect Kozma to end up in the top 5 but that won’t be a “huge” jump.
My best take, on the 2010 rankings is Wallace, Jones, 2009 first rounder, Kozma, Todd, I am going to assume Garcia is completely forgotten after 2009 is done and isn’t ranked in the top 10, and I am going to assume Jones has a similar AAA to his AA this year.
“Who from your prospective lists do you envision making the biggest jump in the rankings by this time next year?” — Vasquez, Henley, random reliever
Matt:
This has bitten me before, but I really like Ottavino to have a nice year and recover his prospect status. I also think guys like Lance Lynn and Niko Vasquez from last year’s draft will continue to do well in the lower levels and enhance their position. My dark horse candidates to make a jump next year: Richard Castillo, Aaron Luna, Adam Veres, Blake Murphy.
I would predict Adam Reifer, Lance Lynn and Niko Vasquez will be in my top ten or thereabouts next season. Reifer, because his stuff comparable to Chris Perez’s. Lynn, because of all the starting pitching prospects in the system, he strikes me as the most well rounded and I could see him move fairly quickly. And Vasquez, because he’s a young middle infielder who can hit.
Don’t forget about Roberto De La Cruz, their big Latin American signing this past July. If he lives up to the hype Luhnow gave him out of the instructional leagues, he could make a big leap up.
For some other sleepers, I like Tommy Pham to possibly this year’s Daryl Jones. More would be Francisco Rivera, Jon Edwards, Anthony Ferrara, Scott Gorgen, Shane Peterson, Ryde Rodriguez and Sam Freeman.
I like your sleepers list. I’d add Alex Castallanos though and maybe Kopp (if he can stay healthy).
I’m a big David Kopp fan, nice call there.
Pham’s a good call for a deep sleeper but Tony Cruz is the guy I think has been ignored too much in the ratings. This past year he hit well in a pitcher’s league in a pitcher’s park while learning the toughest new position to learn. Had he not been hurt I think we would be listing him in most of our top 20′s.
I think Dan Descalso has been forgotten this season. The 2007 3rd rounder’s BA was low in Palm Beach, but he has a low strikeout rate, has good gap power with some home run power, and could be an answer at 2nd base. Although it is a small sample size, he did very well in Springfield at the end of the year. I could see him jumping to the top 30 next season.
Curtis and Kopp are my other votes for big jumps next year. Also, Xavier Scruggs was ranked along with Gorgen and Ferrara in BA’s pre-draft rankings. He made some improvements at the end of last season and I am anxious to see what he can do next season.
I remember everyone being very high on the Anthony Ferera (sp?) last year but I can’t recall how well he did after signing. What are the general thoughts on Anthony? Where do you guys think he will start the year?
Also, FWIW, there is a free article on the Baseball America homepage about a “minor” summer league of sorts that some of last year’s international signings played in. The Cardinals had an IF named Cesar Valera who didn’t hit too bad and stole 11 bases in 40 games, however, he did commit 22 errors in 40 games which probably won’t git ‘r done. Long way from the show but it is an interesting read.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=1871
Erik–one of your sleepers I agree with wholeheartedly: Scott Gorgen. I think he will be in the Jess Todd/Jaime Garcia/Lance Lynn conversation next year as to who the top starter in the organization is. Vasquez will have a mild slump moving up next year. I would love to see Tommy Pham make those tools work. Same with Edwards
My top 10 for next year:
Assumes Boggs, Rasmus, Greene, Perez, and Stavinoha lose rookie status in 2009
Wallace
Jones
Anderson
Todd (no call up due to 40 man roster issues)
Freese (only loses rookie status if Glauss gets hurt )
Lynn
Jay
De La Cruz
#1 pick
Craig
Castillo
Walters
Luna (if he can stick at 2b)
Wow, that’s 13 and I haven’t even included
Kozma, Vasquesz, Mortensen, Garcia, Riefer, or Samual.
Our system is really deep
Poll questions for readers.
Who will be ranked higher at the end of next year.
Poll #1
a) Kozma
b) Vasquez
Poll #2
a) Reifer
b) Samual
i’ll go with vasquez because of his bat(probably gonna bite me in the butt)
and i think reifer’s stuff is better so i’ll go with him barring injuries
Kozma and Reifer,
Vasquez impressed people at a lower level and I expect him to slump down some and possibly have a season similar to what Kozma has been having and I expect Kozma to just keep on keeping on. I also believe Reifer has the better “stuff” over Samuel but either could surprise me by becoming the next Perez.
I’ll take Kozma, for his all around skillset. Reifer v. Samuel is tough, because I expect both of them to continue to succeed.
I agree with Hugo so there is no reason to post it, would have been identical.
I think Kozma is going to have a big year. I still like his upside as Derek Jeter with tempered peak seasons. I also like Edgar Lara to increase his stock, though his problem is plate discipline which is arguably the hardest skill to acquire.
Give me Vasquez and and Reifer.
I’m not a big Kozma fan. His limitations have been stated before but he probably only has about 10 HR power at the most and I have been disappointed by the lack of SBs. I don’t think he’ll hit for enough average to overcome these two things and look like a good prospect. Vasquez has more pop.
I think Samuel will K more than Reifer but those walks are alarming.
I don’t know if he qualifies as a “sleeper,” but Jermaine Curtis had a really successful start at Batavia: .305/.383/.439. I know that performance falls into the category of “not bad for a 21-year-old guy from a major college.” But it is better than what was expected.
He plays third, and probably doesn’t have the power to push past any of the Big Three prospects at that position. (If De La Cruz is the real thing, make that the Big Four.)
Still, he’s one-for-one, in terms of performance. He played in a brutal hitting environment in Batavia, and had huge home-road splits in a very limited sample size. (On the road, he hit .363/.422/.550 in 20 games.)
I’m not predicting anything, but I’m very curious to see how he does in a full season of pro ball. He had a disappointing junior season at UCLA, but before that was highly regarded. Maybe, just maybe, he was a draft-day steal.
i think his future is at 2b…him and vasquez both
I think there are quite a few guys who were drafted in the later rounds last year that will make for interesting prospects next year. It will be nice to see what they can do over an entire year. Several of them have been named in this post already like Cutis, Luna, Peterson and the like.
For what its worth, Curtis and Peterson were both drafted in the first 5 rounds this year (I think Peterson was a 2nd rounder and Curtis was a 4th rounder), so I don’t think they’d qualify as late rounders. Anthony Ferrara and Aaron Luna would qualify, as well as Blake Murphy.
The big question for Colby is should he start this season in Memphis or St.Louis. Well that depends on whether the Cardinal organization plans a legitimate challenge for the World Series in 2009. If they do, then Rasmus should go to Memphis to master AAA pitching, which he was unable to do last year because of injury. If the Cardinal plan is to have him ready to produce in 2010 then he should start in the bigs this year. The reason; well the only consistency he has shown is that he starts the season learning the pitching or being slightly too cocky, which translates into a .225 (circa) average for the first two months. After that he takes off and pounds the ball. So the decision is; do you let him flounder in St.Louis for April and May and have him hurt the team or send him back to Memphis and make sure he has mastered that level first and bring him up later in the season? In 2010 he will be a regular for sure along with Wallace and/or Freese.
As for under-rated well look for Scott Gorgen to be this year’s Jess Todd; Jon Edwards to breakout and become the next Joey Bombs; and two of these three will force their way into the Cards future – Eduardo Sanchez, Andres Rosales and Jose Arrendondo.