Place holder post for the entire top 20 list. No new content.

#20 – Adam Ottavino – Age: 23
Rank: erik – #19, roarke – N/A, azruavatar – #20
2008: (AA) 115.1 IP, 95K/52BB, 45% GB, 5.10 FIP

Player Comment: Well that was rough. We’re willing to give Ottavino some benefit of the doubt, as the jump from the Florida State League to the Texas League can be a tough one, and in an attempt to rediscover his “classic mechanics” this spring, Adam found himself in a mess instead. Sent to the Arizona Fall League to right the ship, he pitched a little better than his numbers would indicate. Ottavino needs to find some consistency and regain his confidence.  ~erik

Ottavino was drafted because of his fastball and decent but unrefined secondary stuff.  The fastball has been hampered by injuries and, as a result, the strikeouts and ground balls are declining as he advances.  Ottavino likes to run his 4-seam fastball up on batters and is best when he’s striking batters out.  What the strikeouts and walks next season to see if he can regain his footing and status within the organization.  ~azruavatar

#19 – Fernando Salas – Age: 23
Rank: erik – #18, roarke – #19, azruavatar – N/A
2008: (AA) 74 IP, 100K/16BB, 41% GB, 3.48 FIP

Player Comment: I have a confession to make: every single time I write about either Salas or Francisco Samuel, I have to look them up to figure out which is which.  They are very similar: right-handed relievers being used as a closer with high strikeout rates.  What separates them (besides the fact that Salas has played at a level higher than Samuel) is that Salas has a stellar walk rate to go with his good strikeout rate.  If he is able to maintain those rates going forward, he is assured of having a role in the major league bullpen. ~roarke

#18 – Lance Lynn – Age: 21
Rank: erik – #17, roarke – N/A, azruavatar – #19
2008: (A-) 18.2 IP, 22K/4BB, 41% GB, 2.05 FIP
(A) 8 IP, 7K/2BB, 38% GB, 5.93 FIP

Player Comment: Lynn perfectly fits what the Cardinals look for in a pitcher when it comes to draft day: Successful college pitcher? Check. Durable? Check. Clean mechanics? Check. Lynn is considered by the wisdom of the experts to be a safer bet to reach the majors than his predecessors, (read: Ottavino, Mortensen) because of his feel for his four pitch repertoire that includes a 89-92 MPH fastball, an above average curve, slider, and change. Like most Cardinal starters in the system, Lynn’s upside is limited, but if he can develop a third pitch he could be a solid #3.  ~erik

#17 – Tyler Herron – Age: 22
Rank: erik – N/A, roarke – #16, azruavatar – #18
2008: (A+) 62 IP, 46K/14BB, 49% GB, 3.85 FIP
(AA) 81.1 IP, 59K/29BB, 44% GB, 4.81 FIP

Player Comment: Herron was in our top ten last year after two consecutive solid seasons in the low minor leagues.  His success continued at Palm Beach to start the season last year, but then he struggled after moving up to Springfield, which shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise for a 21 year old pitching for the first time in AA (in a good hitting environment in Springfield, to boot).  I still feel like he has a lot of upside and his fall down our prospect board might say as much about the improving state of the Cardinals system as it does my faith in his potential.  ~roarke

Herron is more of a “one step at a time” prospect that was moved too quickly. Numerous reports said that his velocity was down and the normal sharpness of his breaking ball wasn’t there this past season. We’ll see if he can rebound, hopefully the Cards will take it slower with him going forward. ~erik

#16 – Tyler Henley – Age: 23
Rank: erik – N/A, roarke – #17, azruavatar – #16
2008: (A+) 367 PAs, .280/.341/.438, .331 wOBA

Player Comment:
Henley’s 2008 campaign was shortened due to injuries but it should be reminiscent of another prospect’s season two years ago – Jon Jay’s 2007 season.  These players are remarkably similar showing a broad range of skills but lacking the star making power that so many look for in players.  Henley is an above average centerfielder with average or better power, good contact skills, an acceptable walk rate and potential to refine his skill set in the future.  He’s another left-handed bat buried deep in the system behind the likes of Rasmus, Jones and Jay but he projects as an everyday centerfielder in the future.  ~azruavatar

#15 – Niko Vasquez – Age: 20
Rank: erik – 16, roarke – 18, azruavatar – 17
2008: (R) 237 PA, .312/.405/.460, .384 wOBA
(A) 44 PA, .128/.205/.154, .175 wOBA

Player Comment:
Almost everyone that follows the Cardinals minor league system fell in love with Vasquez after the draft last year and for good reason – his patience at the plate and solid power are alluring.  He is the young, high upside position player that many of us pined for in the draft.  Only time will tell if he will stay at shortstop and continue his success as he progresses through the system, but I read absolutely nothing into his struggles during his brief time at Quad Cities.  He might be the most intriguing position player below Springfield in the system. ~roarke

#14 – Clayton Mortensen – Age: 23
Rank: erik – 13, roarke – 14, azruavatar – 14
2008: (AA) 59.2 IP, 48K/22BB, 61% GB, 4.35 FIP
(AAA) 80 IP, 57K/42BB, 48% GB, 5.83 FIP

Player Comment:
Above average groundball rates and good strikeout rates are hallmarks of above average pitchers.  Mortensen was rushed through the system after being drafted in 2007 and his results in AAA show it.  A drop in K rate in AA compared to 2007 was followed with another drop in both strikeouts and groundballs upon reaching AAA.  Mortensen was billed as a college pitcher with some projection given his lanky frame and sinking fastball.  His command comes and goes leaving questions about what his overall potential really is.  If he walks batters like he did in Quad Cities, he’s a front end pitcher; Springfield and he’s a middle of the rotation.  If his command doesn’t improve from the Batavia/Memphis levels, he’ll be hampered to be a league average pitcher.  The end result is likely somewhere in between the three options and Cardinal fans may find out as soon as mid-2009.  ~azruavatar

#13 – Jonathan Jay – Age: 24
Rank: erik – 11, roarke – 9, azruavatar – 13
2008: (AA) 426 PA, .306/.373/.457, .359 wOBA
(AAA) 64 PA, .345/.406/.500, .397 wOBA

Player Comment:
Jay bounced back from his injury plagued 2007 season to have an outstanding (and quite underrated, if you ask me) 2008 season.  He had a solid all around season at Springfield and continued his success in his limited appearance at Memphis.  I think Jay projects as David DeJesus with a tick better slash stats.  He is the epitome of solid but not spectacular and it would be difficult to imagine that he wouldn’t have a role in the major leagues in his future. ~roarke

I dream of the day when the minors get a fielding metric that utilizes a PBP system, but until then we have BP’s FRAA. For what it is worth, Jon Jay’s glove was worth +17 runs in center field last season, which is outstanding. His bat would play better there, but there’s that Colby fellow in the system. Color me impressed with what he did with the bat this past season, and if the fielding stats are to be believed, Jay is a solid all-around prospect. ~erik

#12 – Allen Craig – Age: 24
Rank: erik – 14, roarke – 10, azruavatar – 9
2008: (AA) 567 PAs, .304/.374/.494, .376 wOBA

Player Comment:
If David Freese wasn’t in the system, we’d be discussing Allen Craig as the Cardinals next in line for the 3rd base job.  He’s hit 24 and 22 HRs over the last two years with decent walk rates and plus power.  Questions about his defense have lingered and he’s been used in LF as well as 3B given the depth at the position.  The power is real and the contact skills are good enough to hit for average.  Expect him to see time in AAA at multiple positions as he gets squeezed by Wallace and Freese.  ~azruavatar

#11 – Pete Kozma – Age: 20
Rank: erik – 6, roarke – 11, azruavatar – 12
2008: (A) 434 PA, .284/.362/.398, .339 wOBA
(AA) 94 PA, .130/.223/.182, .195 wOBA

Player Comment:
As most of you know, I’ve taken up the position of the resident Kozma apologist here at FR. You can read why here, but I’ll give you the cliff-notes version as to why I’m a Kozma believer: he’s a solid defender at a premium position, and this past season he hit much better than what most people give him credit for. He’s not going to be a star, but having an above average shortstop is very, very valuable. ~erik

The most controversial prospect this side of 2006 Anthony Reyes, Kozma started off the year hot and cooled to post good numbers relative to the league.  Average or better tools across the board with one exception, he’ll need to keep the walk rate up to counteract the below average power.  The offensive plateau for shortstops is low but even then Kozma may have trouble breaching it. ~azruavatar

Kozma is the human roller coaster of a prospect – we probably underrated him before last season and then a month in we started to overrate him.  It would not surprise me if he is a top 5 prospect next year, but it also would not surprise me if he fell off the list.  ~roarke

#10 – Mitch Boggs – Age: 25 (by opening day)
Rank: erik – 9, roarke – 12, azruavatar – 7
2008: (AAA) 125.1 IP, 81K/46BB, 49% GB, 4.51 FIP
(MLB) 34 IP, 13K/22BB, 51% GB, 6.37 FIP

Player Comment:
Boggs is a little vanilla, but he receives high ranks from me because he’s pitched well at every level of the minors and I believe his presence in the system is a big reason why the Cardinals will not do something desperate this winter, like say signing Jon Garland. (Hopefully I didn’t jinx anything there). Seeing him pitch on television a few times, I came across quite impressed with his sinker, but it’s quite obvious he needs to get more consistent with his breaking ball. If the Cards can’t pick up anyone worthwhile in free agency (and the pickin’s are getting slimmer), then I no trouble letting Boggs, Walters and perhaps McClellan duke it out for the 5th starter job. A 4th/5th starter really is about all he portends to be, unless he can pick up a swing and miss pitch. ~erik

Jeff Luhnow doesn’t get enough credit for this 2005 draftee but he deserves it.  Boggs has a plus fastball with both velocity and movement.  His numbers, however, are consistently underwhelming in comparison to seeing his stuff on video.  His curveball is a good breaking pitch although location can be an issue.  With two above average pitches, there’s no reason he can’t fill out the back of a rotation.  His long term upside is dependent on smoothing out some kind of a third pitch and refining how he puts away batters. ~azruavatar

#9 – Jess Todd – Age: 22
Rank: erik – 7, roarke – 8, azruavatar – 11
2008: (A+) 27.1 IP, 35K/7BB, 45% GB, 1.52 FIP
(AA) 103 IP, 81K/24BB, 53% GB, 4.37 FIP
(AAA) 22.2 IP, 20K/10BB, 48% GB, 5.63 FIP

Player Comment:
There were a lot of us that were really excited about Jess Todd until we saw him pitch at the Futures Game.  Maybe it was a bad day, but I didn’t see the dominating stuff that I expected.  His numbers at Springfield and Memphis weren’t as dominating as those in Palm Beach, which is probably to be expected of a guy his age, but consider my enthusiasm tempered.  He still ended up as the highest ranked starting pitcher on my list, but I’m not sure if that says more about Todd or the pitchers that I had ranked ahead of him last year.  ~roarke

What I like about Todd isn’t so much his pitches but his pitchability. I like the fact that he was able to quickly assimilate the ability to sink and cut his fastball, which has made it difficult for opponents pick him up. Then you throw in his sharp slider and I can see why batters didn’t make a lot of contact against him on a whole. What I’m iffy on is his ultimate role. It’s not just his smaller frame, it’s the effort which he throws with. With his repertoire and pitching acumen I would not write him off as a starter, but it’s hard for me to envision. It’s easy to picture him as a solid set up man, or maybe even as a poor man’s closer. ~erik

#8 - Jaime Garcia – Age: 22
Rank: erik – 10, roarke – 13, azruavatar – 3
2008: (AA) 35 IP, 41K/16BB, 62% GB, 2.55 FIP
(AAA) 71 IP, 59K/26BB, 55% GB, 4.17 FIP
(MLB) 16 IP, 8K/8BB, 63% GB, 7.05 FIP

Player Comment:
Placing Garcia proved difficult for me. On one hand, the success rate for pitchers undergoing Tommy John is pretty high. On the other hand, it’s not totally a slam dunk he’ll come back 100% and of course he’ll be of no use to the Cardinals in 2009. Despite the fact he’s going to lose a season, he’ll should be ready come back at a relatively young age. His ability to miss bats and burn worms is most impressive, and I believe his upside is the highest among Cardinal starters in the system. ~erik

I had the same problem as Erik: fully healthy, Garcia would have made my top 5, but I wasn’t sure how to value him at this point.  I fully expect Garcia to provide (more) value at the major league level, but I felt that the injury and loss of a season had to be taken into account.  The truth is that my ranking is equal to a vote of “I’m not sure”. ~roarke

Being the obvious outlier, there’s some justification to be made here. I’m confident that the Cardinals can perform a TJ surgery. Beyond that, Garcia is the only starting pitching prospect that I have high hopes for in the system. A good fastball with a plus curveball and a serviceable change-up. While age for pitchers isn’t something that worries me overmuch, he’ll still be young after missing a year. Name another pitcher in the system that strikes batters out at his rate and gets those kind of groundball numbers. You can’t. ~azruavatar

#7 - David Freese – Age: 25
Rank: erik – 12, roarke – 4, azruavatar – 8
2008: (AAA) 510 PAs, .306/.361/.511, .387 wOBA

Player Comment:
While in the San Diego system, Freese was buried in the depth chart behind Kevin Kouzmanoff and Chase Headley. Now a St. Louis Cardinal, it has to feel a little bit like deja vu all over again for Freese. The main knock on Freese is he is considered to be old for a prospect, but he was drafted as a fifth year senior out of college and within just two full minor league seasons he appears to be ready for a big league job. While there are questions as to whether Wallace or Craig should be moved to another position, there aren’t those doubts about Freese; if anything, defense is one of the better assets to his game, if not the best. ~erik

My feeling is that Freese could probably already be a major league average third baseman.  He’s got a solid bat and is probably a better defensive third baseman than either Craig or Wallace.  He will probably never be a star, but his prime years could provide some 25-30 homerun seasons with solid plate discipline and good defense – I’m thinking that a Mike Lowell-ish upside (probably without the gold glove, though) isn’t out of the question.  ~roarke

The 2008 power was aberrant in my opinion and I don’t see more than 20 HR power in the bigs.  I’m not a believer in the bat but I have to set that aside to a certain extent if I’m going to be objective about his statistics.  He made a significant jump from A ball to AAA but the overall skillset and what I’ve seen of him leaves me uninspired that he’s more than what he is now.  This feels like a Mark Hamilton ranking to me, i.e. one I’m going to regret a year from now, but rationally I think he’s a top 10 choice.  ~azruavatar

#6 – Jason Motte – Age: 26
Rank: erik – 8, roarke – 7, azruavatar – 6
2008: (AAA) 66.2 IP, 110K/26BB, 36% GB, 2.59 FIP
(MLB) 11 IP, 16K/3BB, 45% GB, 1.02 FIP

Player Comment:
Could you ask for more from a reliever?  110Ks in 66 innings is a truly absurd number.  The complaints all center on Motte’s lack of a good second pitch to complement his fastball.  Those are valid concerns and ones that I’ve voiced myself.  That said, the results are hard to argue with.  Motte is already prepped to be a superb setup man and potentially more than that. ~azruavatar

Motte is a fun player, and I find it amusing and interesting that with Motte’s success the Cards are now moving more of their good-arm, no-hit catchers to the bump. Motte may only have one pitch, but it’s hard to argue with the results. Toying around at Fangraphs, we find the only pitcher that throws the fastball as often as Motte is Grant Balfour, the late-blooming flame-thrower who found appreciation with the AL champs. I’m not sure how long a pitcher can get away with only a really good fastball, but I’m looking forward to finding out.  ~erik

Motte was one of the more impressive guys I saw during Spring Training last year.  I think he can succeed in small doses, but without the quality second offering that Az hoped for above, I think he will get hit at the big league level if he is overexposed.  I’m betting that he will develop something to keep hitters honest and turn into a dominating reliever (I’ve said it before, but I’d love to see Bruce Sutter teach him the splitter).  ~roarke

#5 – Daryl Jones – Age: 22
Rank: erik – 5, roarke – 5, azruavatar – 10
2008: (A+) 352 PAs, .326/.403/.476, .385 wOBA
(AA) 151 PAs, .290/.404/.500, .380 wOBA

Player Comment:

Daryl Jones was quite good in 2008.  He was quite horrendous in 2007. The Palm Beach numbers are predicated on a very high BABIP and the ISO is good but not great.  The Carl Crawford comparison still sticks out for me (although I know others like a Kenny Lofton one) and that’s a tremendous ceiling to have but the floor for Jones remains someone who never sees the majors. ~azruavatar

I see no major difference between Jones’ breakout and Austin Jackson’s a couple of seasons back. Everything finally felt into place for Jones: He started to square up on the ball, he drew more walks and even showed some power. I expected Jones to eventually come back to earth as the season went on, but his performance remained steady throughout the season and Jones showed no signs of slowing once brought up to AA. Take it for what it’s worth, but his peak translated EqA this past season was .304, forecasting him to be in all star territory during his age 25-27 seasons. ~erik

Jones has more upside than anyone in the system besides Rasmus and Wallace.  The difference between Jones and those guys is the likelihood that he will reach that potential.  Rasmus and Wallace both seem like sure things, while Jones is quite a bit more in doubt.  Last season’s success at multiple levels certainly makes his future success seem more likely, but after previous disappointing seasons, it will take more than one good year before all doubts are erased. ~roarke

#4 – Bryan Anderson – Age: 22
Rank: erik – 4, roarke – 6, azruavatar – 4
2008: (AA) 87 PAs, .383/.402/.519, .397 wOBA
(AAA) 274 PAs, .281/.361/.379, .324 wOBA

Player Comment:
After a hot start, Anderson suffered a swan dive in the 2nd half of the season. Some find that more worrisome, but I don’t find it unusual for a young catcher to peter out as the season winds down. What encourages me is his improvement with his plate blocking skills and controlling the running game.  The average catcher contributes so little offensively, so having a potential .280-.295 hitting backstop  is quite valuable, whether or not he ever hits for power. ~erik

My opinion of Anderson has not changed since I made my list last year.  I really like him (especially after getting the opportunity to do a Q & A with him during the season), but I have reservations about catching prospects with no power and only average defensive chops.  There is too much that can go wrong and a powerless bat doesn’t play as well anywhere else.   All that being said, I think he does have good value that should be exploited by the Cardinals, either by trading him, or by giving him a legitimate opportunity to win the backup job this spring.  I see him having a lefty-only version of Gregg Zaun’s career if everything works out well for him, which isn’t a terrible thing. ~roarke

I worry that there’s an element of group think with regard to Anderson.  He has a good offensive skillset for a catcher (hits for average, draws walks) but lacks the power to make him more than a league average hitter.  What this really comes down to is position.  A league average hitter who is also a league average catcher is something like a 3+ win player.  ~azruavatar

#3 – Chris Perez – Age: 24
Rank: erik – 3, roarke – 3, azruavatar – 5
2008: (AAA) 25.1 IP, 38K/12BB, 50% GB, 3.59 FIP
(MLB) 41.2 IP, 42K/22BB, 40% GB, 4.31 FIP

Player Comment:
I can understand the argument that Perez might not be ready to take over the closer’s role full time.  I don’t necessarily agree with it, but I can understand it.  However, I have a difficult time with the idea that the solution is to sign a “proven closer” for multiple years.  In Chris Perez we have a cost-controlled young pitcher that can dominate the end of games.  I think he is ready to assume that mantle now, but blocking his progress for the foreseeable future and spending available budget on a position of organizational strength would border on tragic. ~roarke

Chris Perez remains the best reliever in the Cardinals system.  A fastball that sits 94-96 and touches 98 with a biting slider gives him a devastating arsenal to become the Cardinals future closer.  Even upon advancing to the MLB, Perez continued to strike out a batter an inning with decent (for him) control. Avoiding a case of the late inning yips in the early save opportunities this season will be key for Perez to gain a foothold on a position he could hold for many years to come.  ~azruavatar

All this footsie the Cardinals have played with Brian Fuentes makes me wonder what if the Cardinals properly esteem Perez. So his debut wasn’t completely mind-blowing. Handing out a big, three year contract to an aging pitcher that isn’t miles apart of Perez would have been a horrid idea and I’m glad it blew up. A one year stop gap option is justifiable, I suppose. I hope Perez comes to camp and shows the Cardinals how much wheel-spinning they were actually doing this winter haggling for a “proven closer”. ~erik

#2 – Brett Wallace – Age: 22
Rank: erik – 2, roarke – 2, azruavatar – 2
2008: (A) 177 PAs, .327/.418/.490, .398 wOBA
(AA) 57 PAs, .367/.456/.653, .474 wOBA

Player Comment:
Defensively limited players are not my thing.  Wallace has a huge hurdle to overcome as someone who is likely no better than below average at 3B or average at 1B.  The question is less about whether his bat will make up for that — it will — and more about how valuable he’ll really be when it’s all said and done.  Does he become something like a +3 player (Justin Morneau 2008) or a +5 player (Kevin Youklis 2008)?  Neither of those are comps, rather they serve as benchmarks for value: 3 wins = .300/.375/.500 or 5 wins = .300/.400/.550.  Wallace is a true offensive talent, which is good because he’ll need it to carry him to the bigs. ~azruavatar

Mozeliak recently stated that Craig, Freese and Wallace will get looks at different positions this spring besides 3B, with Wallace getting some time in left field. Envisioning the Walrus lumbering around in the outfield isn’t pretty, but no matter. The Cardinals drafted him for one reason: His bat, and it should more than make up for his defensive liabilities. But AZ stated, it does cut into his overall value. I still hold to a tiny sliver of hope he could stick at 3B, at least for a couple of seasons. ~erik

I was not particularly enamored with the Wallace pick on draft day, but his immediate success quickly won me over.  I am as concerned as the others about what position Wallace will ultimately play, but his bat should play anywhere.  Even if the most practical use for Wallace in the long run is as a trading chip to an American League team, his value in that role should be very high.  I am hopeful that he is able to find a defensive home for the Cardinals for a few years, at least.  ~roarke

#1 – Colby Rasmus – Age: 22
Rank: erik – 1, roarke – 1, azruavatar – 1
2008: (AAA) 386 PAs, .251/.345/.396, .324 wOBA

Player Comment:
Can hit for power? Check.  Gets on base? Check.  Plays plus defense in centerfield? Check.  There was some gnashing of teeth this past season when Colby stumbled in AAA.  Much like Albert has spoiled us in the big leagues, Colby has done the same in the minors raising expectations to a point where having an ok season just wasn’t enough.  There’s little more to be said about Rasmus at this point: he’ll either pan out or he won’t.  Bet the former. ~azruavatar

Colby is the total package. I don’t read a whole lot to his weird 2008 season, if anything it probably made him more mature.  Not much else to say that hasn’t been said about Colby. I can’t wait to see him in action in 2009. ~erik

Despite Colby’s up and down 2008 season, my biggest worry about his future lies with the way he will be handled by the organization.  The concern may not be warranted, but there have been enough questionable situations with other players in the organization that the awkward handling of Colby at the end of last season made me a bit nervous.  Presuming that those kind of issues are not a factor, I fully expect Colby to be solid in year one and spectacular in the not-too-distant future. ~roarke

This entry was posted on Thursday, January 1st, 2009 at 12:01 am and is filed under Prospect rankings. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Responses are currently closed, but you can trackback from your own site.