Up and Down – Dealing with Single Season Performance
Posted on January 2nd, 2009 by azruavatar in Prospect rankingsIf you’ve never tried to make a list of the top Cardinal prospects, it’s easy to understate the difficulty and time needed to create one. I’d encourage everyone to sit down and try it once. There are a host of philosophical questions to confound and too many stats to try and take in. After making the list, you can either never look at it again or brace yourself to make changes on a regular basis.
One issue that is particularly troublesome for me is single season performance.
It’s not an unfair characterization to say that I’m a disciple of sabermetrics. If statistics were the only thing I trusted in, however, I’d be next to useless when writing about prospects. During the minor league season, I try to visit QC, Springfield and Memphis at least one weekend each. On top of that, I watch more than 50% of the taped Memphis games. My goal is to see the players as often as possible regardless of distance impediments. Following prospects requires a belief in scouting and trusting your own eye.
At the same time, I’m reluctant to abandon sabermetrics as a whole simply because my confidence level for its accuracy decreases with reference to minor leaguers. Perhaps the single most important lesson that I’ve taken from luminaries such as Tom Tango and Mitchel Lichtman is to abhor the use of single year statistics as valid projections for future performance. The variance on a single season is significant and simple actions like a three year weighted average can make huge strides in reducing that. But what do we do with prospects?
When someone talks about a player being toolsy, it can often be translated as that player hasn’t done much so far. Daryl Jones is a great example of this. We lavish praise on his tools and his raw athletic ability, which is very real, while downplaying, to an extent, the lack of real progress or production. When a player like that puts up a big season, we’re quick to get on the bandwagon. When a player like that never coalesces, they dwindle from the collective conscious with nary a sigh. In the latter event, which happened last year with Jones on our rankings, we’re hedging our bets. When the former happens, how do we interpret that?
Making a list of prospects on an annual basis often exploites and illustrates these turbulent moves. Take Tyler Herron for example: he was the number 6 prospect last year; this year number 17. (A similar thing happened in The Birdhouse rankings where he dropped from 6 to 25.) Not all of that is because of his struggles this past season — the system is improving as a whole and other prospects had big years — but that’s a precipitous decline for a player. Did we overestimate his talent last year or are our short term memories sabotaging our overall impression of the player? The answer is probably somewhere in the middle but its a concerning response. The same can be said of Daryl Jones who will likely jump into every Cardinal Top 10 list you see this offseason. From obscurity to stardom, the transition seems too steep to be rooted in reality rather than perception.
I use Herron and Jones as examples because they so eloquently display the problem. Speaking for all of us at Future Redbirds, our goal is never to simply pander to the masses. If we wanted to pat each other on the back, there are less arduous ways to do so. Accuracy and informed inferences are important to us. So players like Herron and Jones are difficult to handle in an objective fashion. Writing about them on a daily basis, it is easy to lose the forest for the trees. Opinions become ingrained and the big picture blurs out as you focus on what a player has done that year or even month.
There’s no right answer to the questions that I’ve posed. It’s simply one facet of ranking prospects that has to be resolved by each individual. That’s part of what makes it all so fun.
Entries (RSS)
I have always had some sort of a ranking in my head but I’ve never sat down and put it on paper. I think it is time for me to do that. Now can I only do it without bias based on all of your rankings? Probably not but we’ll see.
I think most people tend to overrate starting pitching prospect who have good, but not great years and aren’t known for having good stuff. How often do these type of pitchers pan out? It is very rare from what I have observed. Numerous highly touted pitchers who put up great numbers have difficulty at the major league level. Homer Bailey is a good example of this.
I have been a Herron fan in the past, but if I were to make a prospect list, I would probably lower my rating of mediorce starting pitching prospects. Obviously it isn’t an exact science, though I think in the past we’ve ranked pitchers like Parisi, Furnish, Norrick, Degerman, Webber, etc. too highly.
I can’t complain with this year’s top 20 too much though in regards to starting pitchers. Garcia is definitely the best of the crop. The rest have much to prove before I start penciling them into future rotations but I think they are deserving of top 20 spots. Todd needs to repeat last year again. Boggs is one of those good but not great type of guys. He needs to refine his secondary stuff. I’m not sure if he will. Mort is a difficult one for me to get a read on. I wish they wouldn’t have rushed him so much so I could have a better idea of what kind of prospect he was. Still, with a low K rate and poor FIP, I’d probably rank him lower. His stuff is supposedly good, though I haven’t heard anyone gush over it. Same story for Herron. Lynn is deserving due to his draft status and debut though I wouldn’t be surprised if he turned into one of these good but not great, mediorce stuff SP prospects. Ottavino can overpower guys and has good stuff so let’s hope he gets his head on straight and doesn’t take a McCormick path.
Azru I appreciate your and others’ efforts in giving the best estimates of the prospect’s value as you can. If it was an exact science you guys would be raking in the dough. Don’t know if this is an invitation to give my top twenty but I’m going to take it as such. Please remember that last year I did choose Daryl Jones as the most likely to come back into prospect status. I also chose Jose Martinez as my breakout player and confidently predicted that Nick Derba would make the majors quickly so that’s how exact my science is.
1. Chris Perez. His performance at the major league level in an important role impressed me more that Colby’s one good month in AAA. Perez stayed long enough for the hitters to adjust to him. I think he’ll adjust back at them.
2. Rasmus. I still think he’s a great prospect with a great ceiling but I think he’s farther away than most of you do. I’m hoping he gets at least a couple of months back at Memphis this spring. His multiplicity of skillsmeans he can be a reasonably valuable player long before he realizes his potential but right now I actually think Schumaker’s a better ball player.
3. Wallace. The defense still worries me but I’m starting to believe he’s a very special hitter. Huge trade bait if nothing else.
4. Garcia. Worth waiting for. Highest ceiling of any young starter in the system.
5. Todd. I haven’t had the apparently deflating experience of actually seeing him pitch. I’m just impressed by his success at so many levels and feel he’ll be of some value to the big club relatively quickly.
6. Jones. The toolbox is open. He’s my favorite prospect and his development may have a lot to say about where the Card’s go over the next few years.
7. Anderson. He has not proven that he can really produce runs at any level. I have to remind myself though that he has had to concentrate on his defense, has been very young at every level he’s played at, has hit for average, has a slugger’s build and is a lefty hitter. If he doesn’t develop any power he’s a decent platoon catcher. If the power comes he’s a valuable commodity.
8. Nico Vasquez. Not based on the Amaury like hype. Everything in his stats and his scouting reports makes me think he’s our best middle infield prospect. I’m assuming he’ll end at 2b.
9. Motte. I actually had him lower until I read other people’s lists. I’m still not as impressed by his major league showing as others are. He wasn’t around long enough for the hitters to adjust to him. He did come back from a bad stretch in AAA late last season giving me hope that his other pitches were keeping the hitters more honest.
10. Freese. He maybe could hit .270 with good power and good D in the majors right now. That’s pretty good for your 10th best prospect.
11. Kozma. Not that impressed so far but agree with you guys that he could move the farthest up or down in the rankings of any prospect. If his defense continues to develop, on base percentage will determine what his ceiling is. If he becomes a very high oba guy with a little power, a little speed and great D, he becomes a possible all star.
12. Mortenson. Actually I don’t see much in this guy but I had him ranked 12th before I saw that you guys actually saw less. Decided I should have the courage of my shaky convictions so I kept him here.
13. Craig. This guy has to find a niche somewhere. He’s done nothing but hit the last two years. Stick him in left field at Memphis and, if he hits, trade him to somebody who’ll give him a chance.
14. Jay. This guy actually looks like a good ball player and, if he can keep his average in the .300′s in the majors he could be a valuable regular. An example of how much depth we’ve got in the system.
15. Boggs. Don’t really see him making it as a starter because he apparently only has two pitches. I believe he excelled as a reliever in college and his skill set looks like that’s where he should have the most value. Don’t hear the Card’s talking about it though.
16. Reifer. Just like everything I hear about him.
17. Herron. May not have a great ceiling but I don’t see why everyone’s so down on him. He’s still young and I think he’s got a chance. Has to show it this year though.
18. Samuel. See Reifer. We’re rich in RH relievers.
19. Lynn. Just because everybody says so.
20. Ottavino. Not really that optimistic but he seems to have the stuff to come back as a real prospect. Someone here suggested a switch to the bullpen and, even though we’re overstocked there, I think it would be a good move if he struggles the first couple of months as a starter. Remember Todd Worrell?
Of players not listed my favorites to make an impact are Brian Barden at the major league level and Arnoldi Cruz in the high minors. Arnoldi is young, hit well in a pitcher’s league and was learning a new and difficult position. If he hadn’t gotten hurt I think we’d all have listed him in the top 20′s.
Single season stats are tough but so are small sample sizes. How big a sample is enough to give you confidence (particularly when a guy changes leagues/levels)?
Departures from and support of the expected – that’s when you can place more faith in single season numbers that break with recent patterns. And predicting these, then evaluating the departures from the expected are a good place for the intersection of scouting and stats.