This week must be prospect ranking week. Monday we had Sickels, now it’s Kevin Goldstein’s turn.
Five-Star Prospects
1. Colby Rasmus, CF
2. Brett Wallace, 3B
Four-Star Prospects
3. Chris Perez, RHP
4. Daryl Jones, LF
Three-Star Prospects
5. Jess Todd, RHP
6. Adam Reifer, RHP
7. Bryan Anderson, C
8. Jamie Garcia, LHP
9. Lance Lynn, RHP
10. Jason Motte, RHP
Two-Star Prospects
11. Niko Vasquez, SSJust Missed: Mitch Boggs, RHP; Jon Jay, OF; Peter Kozma, SS
See! I told you that I could not the only person that has a man crush on Adam Reifer. Be sure not miss BP’s podcast interview with Jeff Luhnow.
Discuss away.
Entries (RSS)
>>Just Missed: Mitch Boggs, RHP; Jon Jay, OF; Peter Kozma, RHP<<
First reaction, Kozma can pitch? Second reaction, in the spectrum of grading prospects, Goldstein must skew heavily to the “how close are they to being ready for the show” end of it versus upside potential. Kozma will be a major league middle infielder. He will start 2009 in high A and stands a good chance to advance to AA. He’s not blocked by anyone through AAA. That should rate as a 2Star prospect in my book. Granted, he’s not a high ceiling guy but those players are 4 and 5 star prospects (see D. Jones).
Ha! That wasn’t my goof this time.
I think Goldstein skews far more toward upside as evidenced by Vasquez, Reifer and Jones. Kozma’s ceiling (according to some) just isn’t very high AND he’s far away from the majors.
Yeah, I have to agree with you azruavatar. Kozma is a polished (albeit young) SS without a big upside. Makes more sense that is why Goldstein does not like him. But a plus defender with an average bat would be an upgrade for the Cardinals so this is a kid likely to contribute to the major league team.
>>6. Adam Reifer, RHP<<
Proves your point.
From what I hear Kozma doesn’t have any stand out pitches. All of his pitches tends to be slightly above average.
There’s also a non-subscription podcast interview w/ Luhnow on the main page. Haven’t listened to it yet but I’m sure it will provide more discussion fodder.
Great to see the support for Lynn but it’s disconcerting that Freese has been ranked out of the top 11 in both of the recent reports. Total assumption, but I’m guessing most scout see his big power last year as an aberration. Coupled with his OBP concerns I understand the lack of faith. I still think he easily has the upside of Iowa’s most successful active MLBer – Casey “3 years / $17.5 mill” Blake.
yes good point joe. prospect ranking is always tricky but one way or another kozma has something. im also curious why boggs isnt rated at all. i think boggs had some talent now as well as some upside. hes big and throws hard he just needs another pitch. i guess daryl jones is good. i know nothing of him but thats a good ranking. hes toolsy right? we also need to trade anderson.
I agree with joel. How come Boggs gets no love? He actually made it to the bigs and had some success. I like the game he threw against Boston.
We’ll talk about Boggs on Friday in another prospect discussion but the short of it is that he has iffy command of his breaking ball and a non-existent changeup.
I am not a proponent of trading Anderson. I think he should be kept as a back up to Molina come 2010. Its good to split time between two catchers anyway. If Anderson’s defense continues to improve and he can hit near .300 while taking some walks, he will be a very valuable piece while getting 250-280 at bats.
here is my reasoning for trading anderson. while a backup who hits .300 would be great for us he is more valuable to another team who needs a starter. u say 250-280 at bats but unless he pinch hits a lot thats a big number for a backup catcher. also what if he gets hot? we cant sit molina. its just like with texas it makes no sense to have 2 good catchers. a team like boston or florida makes a lot of sense. last year there was talk of lowrie for anderson. that would have been nice.
I disagree, Anderson biggest problem right now is that he has poor 2nd halves most likely due to stamina problems. So a backup position would actually fit him very well plus he is a left handed bat would match up well against Molina who is poor against right handed pitching.
I think it makes perfect sense to have 2 good catchers. Texas had 4 people that could play C (now 3 with the Laird trade). You don’t see them trading the other 2 now. It is a great insurance policy to have Anderson. Molina has had (guessing here) 2 or 3 concussions from plays at the plate. Crossing fingers that he doesn’t continue to get them. If some of the other catcher prospects in the org can develop more this season, then it may make a little more sense to trade him. But I’m also guessing he doesn’t have the trade value we think he should … right now.
ok guys first i just dont like anderson in the backup role. he doesnt play good defense. when would he get playing time? if we r up by 4 we dont take molinas defense out. the other thought that yadi might get hurt. if yadi gets hurt we r screwed 7 ways and anderson wont save us. by keeping him around we r eliminating his upside because he will never start in st louis. some of this truly depends on what we could get but if we could get a young 2b/ss for him(even a marginal one) we should do it. we have a long term starting catcher. all we have r possibles for a long term 2b or ss. if we could trade anderson for a comparable mi talent he could develop this year and then start in 10. if not we have 2 big holes after this year.
should have been more specific … i like Anderson in an everyday AAA role, not ML backup. He’s 21, 2 years away (I think) from having to be protected, and still needs some development. The same concerns we have (little power, year-long stamina, defense) are the same ones other clubs have so I think, at most, we could get a marginal 2B/SS. I definitely would have been in favor of an Anderson/Lawrie swap last year (and this year). And I think Anderson will hit better than Jason La FuManChu, maybe not this year, so Anderson would not save us, but he would hit better than our current backup.
yes good point about his age. it seems like hes older since hes been a prospect for a while but 21 is very very young for a catcher. he is probably best served in aaa this year im just worried that he will regress. its a gamble to keep holding him when hes well thought of but not neccessarily a bad gamble. i think we should be listening but not being aggressive about it. once again this mostly hinges on what we could get for him.
whither craig and freese
i hope everyone is right about jones(4-stars?)
man i really really like that niko vazquez pick
I agree with you: I was surprised that neither Craig or Freese got even a whiff of “just missed”. But I do agree with his assessment at the end about the number of guys that have a legitimate claim to the 9-11 spot. I really felt that the positioning of a lot of the guys between 7-15 were fairly interchangeable. That was also born out by the mass of C+ grades that Sickels gave out.
Off topic here, but is there any way you guys could design a shir for the shop that is a play off of Adam Reifer, and Jess Todd’s qoutes? Something like Adam Reifer Hates you, and Jess Todd wants to destroy you.
If that was avaliable I would buy it.
The ’08 draft is well represented here (Wallace, Lynn & Vasquez); kudos Luhnow!! I don’t understand how DJ is an “easy call” at #4…he’s still has too much bust potential for me. I also don’t understand no mention of Freese who, IMO, would be AT LEAST an average MLB 3Bmen if he were a regular in 2009…maybe I buy into his STELLAR 2008 a bit too much.
I think the 2008 power by Freese is more than his true talent level (Keith Law has made the same comment in the past so this isn’t just KG) but I don’t think Jones is a slam dunk either.
It was a little perplexing to me the comment about it being hard to be an impact player in LF. It’s certainly HARDER but players like Crawford (my favorite Jones comp) can make up for lessor power numbers with playing plus defense at the position.
I’m just curious, why do you think Freese’s 2008 power was an aberration?
His ISO in ’08 was .244, and his career ISO in 1229 career AB is .222. Granted, his ’08 season is more than a third of his AB’s, but he put up his best numbers in ’08 after skipping AA, which is very hard to do successfully; that fact has to count for something.
Having seen him in person, I don’t see a high power stroke. 26 HRs in 592 PAs is more than I see. He’s more of a 20HR guy for me in the big leauges given 600 PAs. (Note: 26 is well within a variance range for his true talent level to be 20 . . . or 30 for that matter.)
Typically I judge the numbers more than my eyes but I agree with Az. I’ve seen Freese a few times in Des Moines and didn’t see the ball jumping off his bat. That is what scouts always say with discussing top tier talent. Freese even hit a HR to right in one game but it just looked like a fly out that traveled too far.
The ball did not jump off Mather’s bat either: it leapt like its hair was on fire.
Just a guess, but maybe age and positional surplus had something to do with Freese and Craig not making KG’s list.
If the assumption is that 3rd base goes to Wallace after Glaus moves on, then neither has a clear shot at the majors, on top of the fact that Freese turns 26 in April and Craig turns 25 in July.
Pretty fair rankings. I’m a bit surprised he’s so bullish on Jones and Lynn.
I’m surprised that he doesn’t think more of Kozma. I’m sure that prospects look at these rankings. Hopefully these motivate guys like Kozma to show them up. I guess it could have the effect of hurting someone’s confidence, too, though.
The general consensus is that Niko has the upside, but Kozma is a surer bet to stay at short. That gives him an edge in my book.
If we really have 14 prospects that are better than Freese and Craig, we are in pretty good shape.
I’m really excited that we have guys like Jay, Jones, Rasmus coming through in the OF. Should make for some interesting trades of guys like Ankiel, Mather, Ludwick, Shumaker in the next few years. Or we need to start trading off these OF prospects when their stock is high so we can bring in pieces to win. Walt was great at using his minor leauges to bring in proven vets to make our teams competitive. The problem was we sucked at drafting so after doing that and drafting horribly we bottomed out. Now if we can consistently draft well we should be able to use a couple prospects per year to trade for good major league talent. Now come on Moz improve this team!
Wait a second…so Adam Reifer’s last name is actually pronounced RI-fer instead of REE-fer. I gotta say, I’m a little bummed out now.
Somewhat surprising to see no mention of Freese or Craig, though.
I’m just curious… Does KG have a key for his rankings, as in what his star system actually signifies in terms of potential? It may seem obvious, but some rankings skew one direction or the other (For example Sickles says in his “key” article that he is a tough grader and a C+ is good praise from him).
with jones you have to consider the bust potential, but you also have to take into consideration the huge upside. this guy could be an all-star and i don’t think you can say that about many people on this list.
Is it just me, or does KG’s description of Vazquez match the typical Kozma description (all tools grade average or better, none stand out)?
Even if that means “bad pick” for a 1st rounder, and “good pick” for a 3rd rounder, it shouldn’t put one ahead of another.
i can’t see the write-up, but i would disagree about the nothing stands out comment. all the pre-draft reports i read on him said he is a guy that can hit 20-25 homers and that is above average power for a middle infielder even if he winds up at 2nd base.
Landon: KG said recently that 5-star prospects are the guys he would “consider for his top 50″, and 4 stars means top 100 consideration. To me, that translates as 5 stars = top 60 or so, and 4 stars = top 115-125. I don’t know anything about the 3 and 2-star ratings, unfortunately.
By those standards, I’d say that KG has actually underrated Jones, Anderson, Todd, Motte, and (of course) Richard Castillo.
Overrated? Perez, Reifer, Lynn (yes, he’s tall & fat, but he was *not* durable last year), and Mitch Boggs.
Why is it that no nationally known prospect maven can bring himself to acknowledge Anderson’s DEfensive breakout in 2008? He gunned down 41 of 109 stealers, for an excellent 38% over a large sample size–and his errors/passed balls were neither good nor bad, but simply average.
Therefore, on balance Anderson was an above average defender in 2008–a fact borne out by BP’s numbers, which have Bryan 5 runs above average on the year (730 innings behind the dish).
By the way, Kozma’s defense graded out as neutral–but that’s really, really good relative to the Midwest League, where 80-90% of all defenders graded as negative, according to BP’s Fielding Runs Above Average.
(In AA, Brett Wallace was neutral, too, in case you were wondering.)