Comments on: Goldstein’s Top 11

By: Bob

Bob — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 17:17:22 +0000

Landon: KG said recently that 5-star prospects are the guys he would “consider for his top 50″, and 4 stars means top 100 consideration. To me, that translates as 5 stars = top 60 or so, and 4 stars = top 115-125. I don’t know anything about the 3 and 2-star ratings, unfortunately.

By those standards, I’d say that KG has actually underrated Jones, Anderson, Todd, Motte, and (of course) Richard Castillo.

Overrated? Perez, Reifer, Lynn (yes, he’s tall & fat, but he was *not* durable last year), and Mitch Boggs.

Why is it that no nationally known prospect maven can bring himself to acknowledge Anderson’s DEfensive breakout in 2008? He gunned down 41 of 109 stealers, for an excellent 38% over a large sample size–and his errors/passed balls were neither good nor bad, but simply average.

Therefore, on balance Anderson was an above average defender in 2008–a fact borne out by BP’s numbers, which have Bryan 5 runs above average on the year (730 innings behind the dish).

By the way, Kozma’s defense graded out as neutral–but that’s really, really good relative to the Midwest League, where 80-90% of all defenders graded as negative, according to BP’s Fielding Runs Above Average.

(In AA, Brett Wallace was neutral, too, in case you were wondering.)

By: fewgoodcards

fewgoodcards — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 04:47:08 +0000

i can’t see the write-up, but i would disagree about the nothing stands out comment. all the pre-draft reports i read on him said he is a guy that can hit 20-25 homers and that is above average power for a middle infielder even if he winds up at 2nd base.

By: burt

burt — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 04:44:39 +0000

Typically I judge the numbers more than my eyes but I agree with Az. I’ve seen Freese a few times in Des Moines and didn’t see the ball jumping off his bat. That is what scouts always say with discussing top tier talent. Freese even hit a HR to right in one game but it just looked like a fly out that traveled too far.

The ball did not jump off Mather’s bat either: it leapt like its hair was on fire.

By: azruavatar

azruavatar — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 02:42:16 +0000

Having seen him in person, I don’t see a high power stroke. 26 HRs in 592 PAs is more than I see. He’s more of a 20HR guy for me in the big leauges given 600 PAs. (Note: 26 is well within a variance range for his true talent level to be 20 . . . or 30 for that matter.)

By: Chris

Chris — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 01:47:27 +0000

Is it just me, or does KG’s description of Vazquez match the typical Kozma description (all tools grade average or better, none stand out)?

Even if that means “bad pick” for a 1st rounder, and “good pick” for a 3rd rounder, it shouldn’t put one ahead of another.

By: fewgoodcards

fewgoodcards — Thu, 08 Jan 2009 00:29:49 +0000

with jones you have to consider the bust potential, but you also have to take into consideration the huge upside. this guy could be an all-star and i don’t think you can say that about many people on this list.

By: Landon

Landon — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 23:39:59 +0000

I’m just curious, why do you think Freese’s 2008 power was an aberration?
His ISO in ’08 was .244, and his career ISO in 1229 career AB is .222. Granted, his ’08 season is more than a third of his AB’s, but he put up his best numbers in ’08 after skipping AA, which is very hard to do successfully; that fact has to count for something.

By: Landon

Landon — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 23:21:55 +0000

I’m just curious… Does KG have a key for his rankings, as in what his star system actually signifies in terms of potential? It may seem obvious, but some rankings skew one direction or the other (For example Sickles says in his “key” article that he is a tough grader and a C+ is good praise from him).

By: Grant

Grant — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 23:02:46 +0000

Wait a second…so Adam Reifer’s last name is actually pronounced RI-fer instead of REE-fer. I gotta say, I’m a little bummed out now.

Somewhat surprising to see no mention of Freese or Craig, though.

By: themop10

themop10 — Wed, 07 Jan 2009 21:11:50 +0000

I’m really excited that we have guys like Jay, Jones, Rasmus coming through in the OF. Should make for some interesting trades of guys like Ankiel, Mather, Ludwick, Shumaker in the next few years. Or we need to start trading off these OF prospects when their stock is high so we can bring in pieces to win. Walt was great at using his minor leauges to bring in proven vets to make our teams competitive. The problem was we sucked at drafting so after doing that and drafting horribly we bottomed out. Now if we can consistently draft well we should be able to use a couple prospects per year to trade for good major league talent. Now come on Moz improve this team!