Playing the Field – Positional Scarcity
Posted on January 8th, 2009 by azruavatar in Prospect rankingsIf you don’t know anything about positional adjustments, stop reading now. Go to Fangraphs and read this primer on defensive based positional adjustments. You’d be well served to read some of the more specific examples like this 2B/3B comparison or the CF discussion. If you were unaware of the differences between offensive and defensive positional adjustments, you may enjoy this conversation but it’s unnecessary to understand the rest of the post.
The short version is that it is more difficult to find a capable catcher or shortstop than it is to find a capable 1B or DH. Supply and demand dictates that those scarcer commodities should be valued higher accordingly.
So lets see if we can phrase this another way. My catching prospect projects to be a league average hitter. I also have a corner outfield prospect that projects to be a league average hitter. In all the farm systems across baseball, there are 20 catchers that project as league average hitters. In all the farm systems across baseball, there are 75 corner outfield prospects that project as league average hitters. Assuming the catchers and outfielders are all average defenders, we’d rate them as equally valuable commodities without positional adjustments.
Obviously that doesn’t make sense though. When I have two holes to fill and there are 20 that can fill one hole and 75 that can fill another, there’s more competition for the 20 and thus they’ll be paid more. It’s pretty simple conceptually and I’d like to think it’s an unargumentative concept as well. The devil, as always, is in the details. I won’t attempt to broach that subject (visit The BOOK Blog for more info) but needless to say there are some error bars surrounding those values.
The positional adjustment is often used in the valuation of free agents and major leaguers. Should it not also trickle down to prospects as well? If the ranking of prospects is supposed to be indicative of both absolute ceiling and likelihood to reach that ceiling (plus the probabilities of other percentiles), the thresholds that each player has to breach would seem like an important inclusion.
Bryan Anderson is going to be the chief example of this among our prospect rankings. Will he ever make the pure offensive contributions of Daryl Jones? Probably not. Relative to his peers, however, our expectations are lowered. Accounting for the fact that there are very few players capable of catching 100+ games a year and being a decent hitter is crucial to determining Anderson’s overall value as a player and not just as a catcher.
Consider that last year the Cardinals paid Jason LaRue to hit for a .253 EqA and Yadier Molina to hit for a .263 EqA. A translation of Anderson’s AAA line to the MLB (only adjusting for league not age) was a .249 EqA. At the very minimum, Bryan Anderson is a backup catcher in the MLB. That’s a potential $1M saving every year. What if you assume growth from replacement level. Something like a .280 EqA (.280/.360/.400) would make Anderson a positive with the bat. When catchers are non-negatives with the bat, they become instant +3 win players assuming they aren’t horrible defensively.
Reconciling a lower offensive ceiling with a scarcer defensive skill set is an inexact science in the big leauges. In prospects, the same is true. Neither of which is a reason, however, to ignore positional scarcity.
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What happens when out of those 20 catchers only 5 them are lefties? Shouldn’t that also even increase the value more?
I for one see no reason to trade Bryan Anderson for at least 2 more years minimum. His value can really only go up. After another year in AAA I would love to see him be backup to Molina. It would be nice lefty/righty tandem for catchers plus Molina could tutor him defensively.
Shouldn’t that also even increase the value more?
Does being a lefty allow them to do something a righty can’t? If not, (and I think the answer is not) than there’s no advantage to be found in their scarcity. You have to have A catcher; you do not have to have A LEFTY catcher.
The only thing I can think of that might make a lefty more valuable is the potential of more chance of a pick off on a quicker/better disguised throw to 1st and better angle to 2nd for a RH batter. It might give them a better chance of controlling the running game given similar arm strength.
I can’t say that I have experience in this but it would seem more natural for a lefty who is going to plant his right foot rather than a righty planting his left foot.
It may be a moot point but that’s what FLim’s comment suggested to me
Are we talking about a lefty throwing catcher or a lefty hitting catcher? I’ve never in my life seen a lefty throwing catcher because, presumably, it would be very hard for them to throw out runners at third base.
Anderson throws right handed.
I think he’s refering to batting left-handed not throwing left-handed because I NEVER saw a left-handed throwing catcher after age 14…the main reason behind that is because statistically there are more RH batters therefore when a player steals you have a greater chance of your throwing arm being clear…this is especially true in high school and somewhat true in college
I kind of disagree Az. Every team has at least two catchers and the backup catcher is guaranteed to start at least 30 games, frequently more, and to be put late into games at least once in a while. It is overwhelmingly likey that one of the catchers will hit right handed. Assuming that both catchers have typical lefty/righty splits it seems it would be highly advantageous to have one of them be left handed. It would allow the manager an extra offensive advantage to be able to play the backup against a pitcher that he would likely do better against than the regular. Obviously the variety of lefty/righty hitters is good at other positions also but the need to give the starting catcher a frequent day off makes it more so at catcher. If you have a lefty hitting catcher you have a rarer commodity than a lefty hitting outfielder and he may indeed do something better, i.e. hit righty pitching, than a righty hitting catcher.
If you’re talking about a a player playing 30 games a year, his value is reduced by 75%. Sure a platoon advantage exists here and even one for defensive replacement or pinch hitting between Yadi and Bryan since they hit from opposite sides. But do I think that he’s a lefty catcher makes nearly as much difference as the fact that he’s a catcher — no, not at all.
You don’t really HAVE to have lefties in your lineup. You do have to have a catcher.
ok first on keeping or trading anderson. the reason i think we should get rid of him is that with us he offers no upside. what if he goes to aaa this year and kills the ball? unless molina is injured hes starting. now say for example we get a 2b, same age and potential(is 2b or ss considered a more scarce position?). lets say he tears up aaa. we can replace greene or kennedy this year and start developing a cheap starter for the future. a backup catcher is already cheap.
on the subject of position scarcity i hope our front office is considering this while looking for a middle infielder. i had projected us with 7 possible starting outfielders and if this jones guy is really this good that might be 8. the only guy that needs to go in the outfield is ankiel. ank is awesome but unless we can get a contract ironed out he needs to go. also with all the young talent in the outfield it might not be smart to tie up lots of money in an outfielder. mather has real potential, duncan has done it before, and rasmus is a superstud prospect. right now not one is a projected starter.
TRADE ANKIEL FOR MIKE GONZALEZ.
sorry for the caps but this proposal needs attention. this proposal is perfect for team needs on both sides not just ours. if perez outpitches gonzalez perez closes. iof gonzalez is better gonzalez closes. perez has a good year setting up and he closes next year. gonzalez being a lefty would give us versatility that other closing options wouldnt. he also has set up in his career so while he might not be happy about it if perez is looking good perez can close and we have a really good lefty reliever. both ank and gonzo r free agetns after this year so its an even swap. after arb salaries should be very similar as well. this needs to get done.
I don’t think the Ank for Gonzalez really has anything to do with the post above or the site…but I’m going to respond anyway and say that there were reports that the Cards were interested in a trade similar to this one – and the Braves weren’t. You can’t make a trade if two sides aren’t agreeable.
I also disagree about Anderson. He does offer upside. Perhaps he’s more valuable as a trade chip, but I can’t guage the trade market for him. I don’t think many teams would give up a blue chip middle infielder for him. But I don’t know that for a fact. Backup catchers also play a lot more than backup middle infielders. Catching takes a toll on your body, and keeping guys fresh is essential to their offensive (and defensive) production. Having Anderson play 60 or so games has value over LaRue.
if improving the ballclub doesnt have anything to do with this site than whats the point. my intentions have no underlining motivation or bias. my sole motivation is to improve the club.
once the other outfielders r signed i am betting gonzalez will become available again. onl;y abreu and dunn r better options for atlanta and both will require multiple years. atlanta needs to let schaeffer, hernandez, and heyward develop for another year. sure the braves r not interested this second but the offseason is very fluid. atlanta is paying rafael soriaon 6 mil. im sure if hes healthy they can let him close.
as for naderson i dont agree that backup catchers play more than backup middle infielders. last year we had izturis, miles, and kennedy. one of those has to be considered a backup yet 339 at bats was the minimum of the 3. thats not my opinion thats a fact. who right now is projected to get miles’ at bats? this is my point. larue had 164 at bats last year and that was with molina being banged up a number of times. a backup catcher for us will not get the proper playing time to develop and most importantly when hes ready will have no place to play.
possibles for 2b/ss
ben zobrist
lou marsden(i think thats his name. philly prospect)
martin prado
josh barfield
brandon wood(probably dreaming)
clint barmes
i wouldnt be jumping out of my seat if we acquired any of these guys(well maybe wood) but all these guys would provide a better option than what we have right now(tyler greene?). someone tell me what r we going to do after this season? we need a long term solution. someone must need some outfield talent.
I think you’re talking about Lou Marson and he’s a C … you probably mean Jason Donald and he’ll probably be the Phils starting 2B until Utley gets back from surgery.
yes jason donald that is him. utley might have some surgery but they could still trade him. with rollins and utley locked in they dont need him. just like for us with anderson, it seems donald would have way more value to another team than he would have with his present one. unfortunately team needs dont match up too well with philly. they really dont have many team needs currently.
I definitely understand the point your making, but with prospects, position scarcity shouldn’t be a top priority when considering rankings. If fact, it really shouldn’t be all that close to the top. EVERY prospect has an inherent chance at being a BUST as a major league player. The lower you go on the talent totem poll to find your prospects (regardless of position) would clearly make that scenario more likely.
Comparing Jones and Anderson, I’d say Jones has a much better chance at being a league average OFer than Anderson does of being a league average C. Plus you have to figure in the ceiling of Jones, which is infinitely higher than Anderson’s.
In addition, does Anderson really play league average defense? From what I’ve heard, its less than stellar. Defense plays a much larger part in ranking a prospect as a SS, 2B, or C than other positions. If he was a very good defensive C, then I’d be more inclined to rank him higher, but it just isn’t all that good.
In addition, I think position scarcity has been accounted for in rankings that put Anderson around 7th in our system. He’s very similar to Shane Robinson number wise at the plate. Robinson didn’t even crack your top 20, nonetheless top 5 (Anderson ranked 4th on your list). Comparing Jones to Anderson really isn’t the best comparison, as Jones put up MUCH better numbers over the course of the season.
Very good post. Something that caught my eye though was the ranking of prospects based on their ultimate ceiling and probability to reach that ceiling. This made me think of Hockey’s Future’s way of ranking prospects.
As an example of what I mean, here is the Blues’ prospect depth chart at the bottom of this page: http://www.hockeysfuture.com/teams/st_louis_blues.
Even though some players have higher potential than others (a 6.0 vs a 5.0, for example), they may rank lower because of less chance of reaching that ceiling (a 6.0D prospect would rank lower than a 5.0B prospect).
Maybe this system may be something you guys will want to incorporate in your own rankings here. Maybe your top ten could look something like
1 Rasmus 9.0B
2 Wallace 9.0C
3 Perez 8.0B
etc.
Deric McKamey, who writes an annual publication called Minor League Analyst, uses that system.
The problem with Anderson is right now he doesn’t project to have a slugging percentage capable of allowing him to be a “positive with the bat.” Granted, he’s still young and has room to get stronger, but power is not a learned skill – you have it or you don’t.
I just can’t see Anderson with an OPS higher than .710 in the majors (which would make him a slightly below average major league hitter) unless his slugging improves. The question is: is his defense good enough to support this kind of offensive production?
Check out Bengie Molina and Kurt Suzuki last season. You don’t have to be a plus with the bat as a catcher to be a +3 win player. That’s the whole point of the post.
Azru – I get the point of the post. I did a poor job of formulating my point. What I really meant to ask was: if Anderson is not a plus with the bat in the majors, will his defense be adequate to play catcher in the majors? At his current offensive production, he only has value if he can stay at catcher.
“will his defense be adequate to play catcher in the majors?”
That seems to be the ongoing question with him. Personally, I think it would be fine. Even if you assume he’s a -10 defensively, he can still be a +2 WAR catcher just by being average with the bat. It’s amazing how bad a hitter these players can be and still be valuable. Suzuki is a great example because he didn’t hit for much power last year SLG = ~.370 but he still managed to be a good overall player.
One interesting side note — Dave Cameron commented somewhere, Lookout Landing, IIRC — about Jeff Clement and his defense. The topic meandered and the question was raised as to whether we’re selective sampling catcher’s defense. The worst defender we’ve ever seen is probably someone like Piazza because other catchers don’t make it to the majors if they suck worse than that behind the plate.
In addition to not having a good defensive metric for catchers, it’s possible that we’ve never really seen what replacement level defense looks like at the position because truly bad defenders are moved or just never graduate to the bigs. It’s an interesting thought.
yes the point of the article is using position as an example of why an average prospect like anderson has as much or more value than an outfielder with more talent. for example mather would project to have better numbers than anderson yet anderson would be more in demand from other teams. the reason for this is most teams do not have the best catcher in baseball catching for them. he has value to us but he has more value to another team. i will list teams who would improve with a slightly below average hitting catcher or have a need to develop a young guy. not to mention hes cheap for 3 years and under control for 6. that has appeal to a lot of teams.
red sox
yanks
blue jays
tigers
brewers(although they might like their prospect more)
astros
reds
mets
marlins
giants
padres
all these teams either need a catcher now or need to start developing one(much in the same way we need to develop a 2b or ss). pick up the phone.
I think we should get whatever insane haul you can get for the best catcher in baseball and roll with Anderson’s peak .275 EqA.
ok ill assume u r mocking the best catcher in baseball comment. maybe joe mauer is better. i have only seem him play once so i wont say for sure. i have seen firsthand mccann and marting mumerous times and molina is far superior. there r 2 positions in baseball where defense is more important than offense and thants ss and catcher. the best part about a good defensive player is u dont have to pay the premium for defense(typically). this is how some of the best cardinal teams of recent history were built. mv3 was great on offense but nobody ever talked about the defense. we had the best cf and the best 3b defensively in all of baseball. people dont like things they cant quantify with some number or stat. i watch the games. molina is the best.
and if molina were traded that would hurt our chances of keeping albert around and we will do nothing to do that. so if molina is sticking around for 3 years anderson has no place here. like i said pick up the phone.
just to point out … Giants drafted Posey last year. They would only need Anderson for possibly 2 years so they are not going to give up a decent MI for Anderson. Same with the Astros (Castro).
The Yankees are in the same boat (C prospect-wise) with a couple of C prospects that can really hit but have questionable defense.
We talked about this for a little yesterday and I think it’s something we’ll just have to agree to disagree on. I just don’t think we’ll get anything of value for Anderson (unless we include another prospect too) right now.
good call on posey. my fault i forgot. the yanks i was really only thinking as a way to even out an ankiel for hughes deal. they have posada for 3 more years as well.
as for andersons value maybe i am overvaluing him. if a team wasnt willing to give up much than keeping him wont hurt. my thoughts r we should explore it at least. if the interest is timid we keep him. we have some team needs and if the front office doesnt want to spend we need to trade. i would really like to see a young 2b or ss get 300 at bats this year and take over something next year.
Odd how regardless of any numbers, you make a call and say you want to trade an outfielder, you’re put on hold listening to an album’s worth of Billy Joel’s Greatest Elevator Hits.
You tell them you have a catcher to trade, and you’re call goes right to the bigwig.
All the comments are smart, BTW. The whole thing just got me to thinking about C vs. OF.
Being a lefty-hitting catcher most definitely matters. If Anderson is your backup, then you make sure you rest Molina when we are facing a righty pitcher. Likewise if Anderson is the starter in a few years then he gets his 1-2 games a week off when we face a lefty pitcher. If Anderson is the backup in 2010 to Molina you can even use him to pinch-hit for Molina against righties if we have an emergency catcher on the team that Tony isn’t scared of.
I doubt you’d sit Molina against every righty (since they make up most of the starting corps) but there’s a natural platoon that might be exploited.
Right. Why is that not important? Also if your starting catcher is a lefty hitter then it would make it easy for the manager to plan the starts for the righty backup.
I posed the question of Anderson’s perceived defensive shortcomings vs. his actual accomplishments to B. Miklasz on his forum, and this was his response:
” I have not talked to one scout who believes the kid will be a good defensive catcher in the big leagues.
That’s why.
When the Cardinals dangled him as trade bait during the winter meetings, the interest was minimal.”
I do have to say that is disheartening. While the words of scouts aren’t everything, they do have weight for me. The lack of interest from other teams speaks volumes as well.
Do you think that they are simply over-valuing catcher defense and Anderson will be average or slightly below-average defensively and they can’t see past that?
How many scouts do you think the jack of all trades Bernie M is talking too? I doubt many.
The fact is he cut down on passed balls and greatly improved catching basestealers this past season. He should be an MLB average receiver, maybe a little better, but not a lot worse.
That’s talking to, not too.
Honestly the mystery scouts he quotes aren’t as much an issue to me as the lack of interest from other teams. That would indicate a widespread perception from scouts across various organizations that his defense won’t play in the majors. Otherwise, why wouldn’t he generate interest?
Teams don’t center deals on prospects very often unless their top 25. Bryan Anderson is not going to bring in a MLB-er by himself because teams are very risk averse.
i think it would be best to read between the lines on his comment. he said he wont be a good defensive catcher. so what. if hes average or even slightly below average defensively his bat should carry him. like erik said he improved defensively last year as well. his bat projects as at least league average for the position. hes an offensive catcher.
That’s true, but in the context of his other comments about Anderson, I.E. he needs to switch positions, I don’t think he believes he’ll even be adequate.
I just don’t understand how his very good defensive season in ’08 is being roundly ignored. You don’t get +5 runs from BP for defense and a 37.6 CS % if your fundamental skills are terrible.
I’m not trying to be overly critical or a wiseacre but isn’t this all obvious and hasn’t it always been? Certainly if any good fielding catching prospect could hit like, say Jon Jay, he would be a terrific prospect and rated higher by everybody than the outfielder Jon Jay, wouldn’t he? Wouldn’t he also have been fifty years ago? I’m operating on inadequate sleep today so please tell me if I’m missing something.
I think this is on topic.
How do guys such as T. Cruz and Hill (in 2010 and beyond) fit into this conversation? Even beyond their potential value as a #2 catcher, what is their value as a #3 catcher who can play other postions, but by being able to catch allow a manager such as LaRussa to pinch run for Molina late in a game, or use a left hand hitting Anderson as a pinch hitter because he knows he has a third catcher on the bench, who happen to be able to play additional positions such as 3b, 1b and OF?