Boggs has a substantial body of work in the minors, and his career (to my knowledge) doesn’t parallel that of any successful MLB starter. Does Boggs have high strikeout totals? No, just the opposite. Tons of groundouts? Nope. Really low walks, or homers? Not really. Has he been young for his leagues? Actually, he’s been old at every single stop. (Also, his K rate has declined every year, and was dismal in AAA last year.)

The Cards have some very nice depth of minor league starting pitchers, but I wouldn’t include Mort, Ott, or Boggs among that depth. (I’d say the top 5 are Todd, Castillo, Walters, Additon, and Hooker–but you could make a case for Garceau, Gorgen, Diapoules, Herron, Lynn, Ferrera, or Moises Colorado as well. Maybe even Fiske.)

Can someone please explain how Mortenson is a projected 2-3 starter and Boggs does not have the stuff to be a succesfull big league pitcher?

on a seperate note i dont think people consider players height and bone structure enough in projecting development. a lot of taller guys take time to grow into their body, let alone gain muscle. there r medical facts to back up that bigger guys mature slower so why r people surprised when a guy like mather comes along so slow. just a thought.

Looking at Boggs’ performances in the minors, if we take it all in–the raw K rates, the K/BB ratios, the age-relative-to-league, the HR numbers, the GB/FB ratios–Mitch has never at any point in his career shown the profile of even a solid #4/5 MLB starter. I’ll stand corrected if anyone can name a current MLB starter who’s posted multiple seasons of 180 IP and a sub-5.00 ERA, and has a minor league profile that matches what Boggs did.

Jess Todd, on the other hand, having never even pitched in full season ball, flew through A & AA, and succeeded in his brief AAA time (ERA under 4.00, and nearly a K per inning), all at age 22–and a “young 22″, at that, as he’ll still be 22 on Opening Day 2009. As a pro, despite being very aggressively promoted, he’s posted a stellar 4-1 whiff-to-walk ratio. Moreover, despite his modest size Todd has shown himself durable, pitching 150+ innings each of the past two years.

In short, I see Jess Todd as a very plausible #2/3 starter in a couple of years…and Mitch Boggs as having no MLB future whatsoever, unless it’s in the pen.

As far as the system as a whole, several guys had marked success while in age-appropriate leagues in 2008–nearly a dozen of them all told. (I don’t believe more than one or two other farm systems can make the same claim.) And that doesn’t include recent draftees like Lance Lynn or Scott Gorgen, the latter of whom pitched 170 innnings in ’08, and more than 130 the year before. I see Lil’ Scott Gorgen as a great choice for breakout pitcher of 2009–his record of durability is rare, and a very underrated aspect of pitcher evaluation.

On balance, I’m *very* encouraged by the depth of starting pitchers the Redbirds have down on the farm. :)

Unfortunately, I am not sold on Jess Todd. I think when he comes up, he will be taking over the Brad Thompson role. I believe he will do better than BT in that role, and could do just as good as BT right now. Maybe BT gets traded this offseason along with an outfielder for either a stand up Loogy or back of the rotation starter to compete with Piniero and or compete for the closer spot. (It has been documented that Mo has stated that they might look to a current SP to come in and close). If they went after a free agent starter to potentially close, (i know this is off subject)…but I think that person is PEDRO MARTINEZ.

I have not seen Todd pitch, and am hopeful that he can continue to produce as a starter. However, many have mentioned that he has a max-effort delivery and as much as it’s been worn out you do have to consider his size. Perhaps he fits into a swingman role or even better (set-up)?

Bottom line though, IMO both pitchers ceilings are that of a 3-4 starter, OR a lock-down reliever. To echo Azru, this organization has a glaring weakness in developing starting pitching….or at least high ceiling starters. I realize that it’s a risky demo, but I believe that it’s better to spend on a young stud arm (say draft bonus 1-3 mil. as average going rate for high celing arm) as opposed to spending 10 mil. a year on mediocre free agent starters. I am happy encouraged that we are spending some mid to late round picks on sleepers (hooker, ferrara, zawacki, etc.), but until we anti up on arms, every offseason will require us to at least explore overpaying for a free agent arm.