Comments on: Tear Me Down – Prospect Injuries http://www.futureredbirds.net/2009/01/12/tear-prospect-injuries/ Baseball's Future in the Gateway City Thu, 09 Feb 2012 07:29:32 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: Philskill http://www.futureredbirds.net/2009/01/12/tear-prospect-injuries/comment-page-1/#comment-4708 Philskill Wed, 14 Jan 2009 09:22:22 +0000 http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=1975#comment-4708 I understand that Mather injured (broke) his hamate bone right? Will this affect his power going into the season? Is there a chance that he won't be 100 percent healthy? Is his injury difficult to overcome? I understand that Mather injured (broke) his hamate bone right? Will this affect his power going into the season? Is there a chance that he won’t be 100 percent healthy? Is his injury difficult to overcome?

]]> By: BigJawnMize http://www.futureredbirds.net/2009/01/12/tear-prospect-injuries/comment-page-1/#comment-4698 BigJawnMize Tue, 13 Jan 2009 14:39:17 +0000 http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=1975#comment-4698 Type of injury is the big thing for me. Wrist/hand and knee injuries for hitters are major red flags for me. Of course Labrum/Rotator Cuff injuries are the kiss of death for pitchers. If I was doing a prospect ranking I would rank players that have a chance of passing the injured player ahead of the injured on the depth chart due to the lost development time. No pitcher in the system really has a shot of passing Garcia no matter if he misses a year. But last year I might have ranked Jones ahead of Jay because he had the opportunity to pass him. I think we need to pool our cash and get Colby a FRB neti pot. www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8sDIbRAXlg Type of injury is the big thing for me. Wrist/hand and knee injuries for hitters are major red flags for me. Of course Labrum/Rotator Cuff injuries are the kiss of death for pitchers.

If I was doing a prospect ranking I would rank players that have a chance of passing the injured player ahead of the injured on the depth chart due to the lost development time. No pitcher in the system really has a shot of passing Garcia no matter if he misses a year. But last year I might have ranked Jones ahead of Jay because he had the opportunity to pass him.

I think we need to pool our cash and get Colby a FRB neti pot.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j8sDIbRAXlg

]]> By: Easy http://www.futureredbirds.net/2009/01/12/tear-prospect-injuries/comment-page-1/#comment-4692 Easy Tue, 13 Jan 2009 00:09:47 +0000 http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=1975#comment-4692 I agree that it's a conundrum evaluating players who've had injuries. As you say two years of injury/illness for a prospect can be interpreted by some as damaged or fragile goods. To the extent that we can evalutate this I think, like you said, it depends a lot on the nature of the injury but also on how the player responds to it. In the case of a severe injury, ligament tear for a pitcher, broken bones etc. I think all you can do is listen to the expert's odds on recovery and go with that until it's proven wrong. Far more important, I think, is the player's history of dealing with strains, sprains, pulls, hernias and other painful but not totally disabling maladies. On the major league level we have the ultimate role model for playing well, returning early etc. from an injury in the person of Albert Pujols. On the other hand we have had a player like Cesar Izturis whose play seems to be very much affected by those semi serious kinds of injuries. There's a temptation to put this down as a character issue and in the case of AlBert I do think that his yearning to play and will to win plays a role. But I do think that it's mostly a matter of a player's body and the kind of role he plays in baseball. Cesar, who I (not popularly) think is actually a very good ball player when not injured, has a very different body from Albert and needs his legs, above all else to be in tip top shape to perform well. As much as I like him I agree that he's not a good guy to depend on and we were better off letting him go solidify another team's defense for half a season. Having said that I don't think we should assume there's any kind of character issue. He's a little guy who needs a healthy body to perform at his best. In the case of prospects it gets much murkier of course because they haven't been around long enough to get a read on their ability to play through injuries. Regarding the three prospects mentioned I would deal with them this way. Jay seemed to have a pretty serious shoulder injury and shoulders are very important in all aspects of baseball. I'd say we chalk it up to that and take last year as the best read on his prospect status. Garcia's injury is common and, unless his pitching style and motion make re injury inevitable, I'd say we should expect a return to very good prospect status. Colby worries me a little more because of the big time slumps he's had and the fact that he hasn't put together a full great season. They've been excused by his youth, sinus infections, injuries, and disappointment at not making the big squad and all of those are legitimate reasons. One thing I know about sinus infections though, since I have them repeatedly, is that people who have them tend to have them repeatedly. They make you feel weird and spacey and I can't imagine hitting a baseball moving 90 miles an hour with one. I assume that Ted Williams never had one but Colby is going to have to play through sinus infections, if he's prone to them, other injuries and disappointments if he's going to achieve the stardom we hope for him. I agree that it’s a conundrum evaluating players who’ve had injuries. As you say two years of injury/illness for a prospect can be interpreted by some as damaged or fragile goods. To the extent that we can evalutate this I think, like you said, it depends a lot on the nature of the injury but also on how the player responds to it. In the case of a severe injury, ligament tear for a pitcher, broken bones etc. I think all you can do is listen to the expert’s odds on recovery and go with that until it’s proven wrong. Far more important, I think, is the player’s history of dealing with strains, sprains, pulls, hernias and other painful but not totally disabling maladies. On the major league level we have the ultimate role model for playing well, returning early etc. from an injury in the person of Albert Pujols. On the other hand we have had a player like Cesar Izturis whose play seems to be very much affected by those semi serious kinds of injuries. There’s a temptation to put this down as a character issue and in the case of AlBert I do think that his yearning to play and will to win plays a role. But I do think that it’s mostly a matter of a player’s body and the kind of role he plays in baseball. Cesar, who I (not popularly) think is actually a very good ball player when not injured, has a very different body from Albert and needs his legs, above all else to be in tip top shape to perform well. As much as I like him I agree that he’s not a good guy to depend on and we were better off letting him go solidify another team’s defense for half a season. Having said that I don’t think we should assume there’s any kind of character issue. He’s a little guy who needs a healthy body to perform at his best.
In the case of prospects it gets much murkier of course because they haven’t been around long enough to get a read on their ability to play through injuries. Regarding the three prospects mentioned I would deal with them this way. Jay seemed to have a pretty serious shoulder injury and shoulders are very important in all aspects of baseball. I’d say we chalk it up to that and take last year as the best read on his prospect status. Garcia’s injury is common and, unless his pitching style and motion make re injury inevitable, I’d say we should expect a return to very good prospect status. Colby worries me a little more because of the big time slumps he’s had and the fact that he hasn’t put together a full great season. They’ve been excused by his youth, sinus infections, injuries, and disappointment at not making the big squad and all of those are legitimate reasons. One thing I know about sinus infections though, since I have them repeatedly, is that people who have them tend to have them repeatedly. They make you feel weird and spacey and I can’t imagine hitting a baseball moving 90 miles an hour with one. I assume that Ted Williams never had one but Colby is going to have to play through sinus infections, if he’s prone to them, other injuries and disappointments if he’s going to achieve the stardom we hope for him.

]]> By: joel http://www.futureredbirds.net/2009/01/12/tear-prospect-injuries/comment-page-1/#comment-4689 joel Mon, 12 Jan 2009 11:31:57 +0000 http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=1975#comment-4689 when projecting players all u r really doing is putting a large number of variables into an equation(some variables hold more weight than others) and coming up with a projection. for example using a 1 to 10 scale(to keep it simple) garcia is a 8 in talent, a 6 in performance, and was a 6 in health. he gets hurt he goes to a 2 or 3 and new answer. nobody can predict injuries for sure but u just plug it in like a formula. to get specific with garcia, what i would do is look at all pitchers within a year or 2 of his age that have had the surgery. i would look at which ones came back to be healthy(if not effective). anyone who gambles a lot knows what im talking about. its just numbers and odds. when projecting players all u r really doing is putting a large number of variables into an equation(some variables hold more weight than others) and coming up with a projection. for example using a 1 to 10 scale(to keep it simple) garcia is a 8 in talent, a 6 in performance, and was a 6 in health. he gets hurt he goes to a 2 or 3 and new answer. nobody can predict injuries for sure but u just plug it in like a formula.

to get specific with garcia, what i would do is look at all pitchers within a year or 2 of his age that have had the surgery. i would look at which ones came back to be healthy(if not effective). anyone who gambles a lot knows what im talking about. its just numbers and odds.

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