Comments on: Peak Translations + WAR Spreadsheet = ultimate hyperventaliting prospect geekdom http://www.futureredbirds.net/2009/01/16/peak-projections-war-spreadsheet-wild-enthusiasm-seed/ Baseball's Future in the Gateway City Fri, 10 Feb 2012 00:49:41 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 By: CardSince85 http://www.futureredbirds.net/2009/01/16/peak-projections-war-spreadsheet-wild-enthusiasm-seed/comment-page-1/#comment-4818 CardSince85 Mon, 19 Jan 2009 21:44:55 +0000 http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=2085#comment-4818 Mop I know he's working on his slider/slurve really hard and he's mentioned a sinker in passing (personally I think this would be a great out pitch for him) but his biggest problem is that he never pitched...same with his brothers (both INF) so he's still trying to perfect his motion and getting a consistent grip and spin on the ball He's going to have an interesting year with Duncan coaching him everyday I'd expect to see a sinker make a debut late in the season Mop

I know he’s working on his slider/slurve really hard and he’s mentioned a sinker in passing (personally I think this would be a great out pitch for him) but his biggest problem is that he never pitched…same with his brothers (both INF) so he’s still trying to perfect his motion and getting a consistent grip and spin on the ball

He’s going to have an interesting year with Duncan coaching him everyday I’d expect to see a sinker make a debut late in the season

]]> By: erik http://www.futureredbirds.net/2009/01/16/peak-projections-war-spreadsheet-wild-enthusiasm-seed/comment-page-1/#comment-4793 erik Mon, 19 Jan 2009 15:53:54 +0000 http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=2085#comment-4793 They are their minor league equivalents from this past season only, with an aging pattern applied to them to forecast what the player should do at his peak seasons (25 for speedsters, 27-29 for power hitters). Because they are based on one season, feel free to not take them super seriously. Some seam realistic--Anderson, Kozma, Craig...some may not be as realistic, like in the case of Jones, although we can hope. I entered in only prospects, it's just an all prospect team. But since you mentioned the absence of Albert, I'm sad to say is seems like a real possibility these days. They are their minor league equivalents from this past season only, with an aging pattern applied to them to forecast what the player should do at his peak seasons (25 for speedsters, 27-29 for power hitters). Because they are based on one season, feel free to not take them super seriously. Some seam realistic–Anderson, Kozma, Craig…some may not be as realistic, like in the case of Jones, although we can hope.

I entered in only prospects, it’s just an all prospect team. But since you mentioned the absence of Albert, I’m sad to say is seems like a real possibility these days.

]]> By: RunSupRun http://www.futureredbirds.net/2009/01/16/peak-projections-war-spreadsheet-wild-enthusiasm-seed/comment-page-1/#comment-4788 RunSupRun Sun, 18 Jan 2009 03:05:05 +0000 http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=2085#comment-4788 Re:Motte's picture. What is it with Cardinals and cheesy goattees? Re:Motte’s picture. What is it with Cardinals and cheesy goattees?

]]> By: RunSupRun http://www.futureredbirds.net/2009/01/16/peak-projections-war-spreadsheet-wild-enthusiasm-seed/comment-page-1/#comment-4787 RunSupRun Sun, 18 Jan 2009 03:02:41 +0000 http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=2085#comment-4787 Erik - You've dared to imagine a Cardinal team with out Albert Pujols. Not only that, but in this scenario he's apparently walked for just a draft choice. Oh the humanity! Help me understand "Peak Translations". Are the projections for each player at the hi-end for performance at his peak age? Are they based solely on 2008 performance? Doesn't PECOTA do a range of performance projection 3 years out? So you can choose a median projection instead of a hi-end or low-end one? Erik –
You’ve dared to imagine a Cardinal team with out Albert Pujols. Not only that, but in this scenario he’s apparently walked for just a draft choice. Oh the humanity!

Help me understand “Peak Translations”. Are the projections for each player at the hi-end for performance at his peak age? Are they based solely on 2008 performance?

Doesn’t PECOTA do a range of performance projection 3 years out? So you can choose a median projection instead of a hi-end or low-end one?

]]> By: Easy http://www.futureredbirds.net/2009/01/16/peak-projections-war-spreadsheet-wild-enthusiasm-seed/comment-page-1/#comment-4786 Easy Sat, 17 Jan 2009 15:24:48 +0000 http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=2085#comment-4786 This is certainly fun stuff for a cold January morning (I live in Minnesota), but I've got a few quibbling comments. 1. I've been a Daryl Jones supporter even when he slid off the top 30 list but I'm not going to bet what's left of my 401k that he'll ever slug .494 in the major leagues. 2. My enthusiasm about Colby Rasmus has been tempered lately but I actually think he'll do better at his peak than the projection. 3. I'm worried that Duncan will coax a decent season out of Joe Blow and Mo will sign him to a four year contract. 4. Doesn't seem to be a lot of difference between our pitchers. I suspect there will be very little difference between P.J. Walters' peak year and the rest of his years so this makes him look like a pretty valuable property. I just have trouble seeing him ever spending a full year in the major leagues. 5. We should do what we have to to keep Adam Ottavino from fulfilling his peak translation. This is certainly fun stuff for a cold January morning (I live in Minnesota), but I’ve got a few quibbling comments.
1. I’ve been a Daryl Jones supporter even when he slid off the top 30 list but I’m not going to bet what’s left of my 401k that he’ll ever slug .494 in the major leagues.
2. My enthusiasm about Colby Rasmus has been tempered lately but I actually think he’ll do better at his peak than the projection.
3. I’m worried that Duncan will coax a decent season out of Joe Blow and Mo will sign him to a four year contract.
4. Doesn’t seem to be a lot of difference between our pitchers. I suspect there will be very little difference between P.J. Walters’ peak year and the rest of his years so this makes him look like a pretty valuable property. I just have trouble seeing him ever spending a full year in the major leagues.
5. We should do what we have to to keep Adam Ottavino from fulfilling his peak translation.

]]> By: themop10 http://www.futureredbirds.net/2009/01/16/peak-projections-war-spreadsheet-wild-enthusiasm-seed/comment-page-1/#comment-4779 themop10 Fri, 16 Jan 2009 19:14:59 +0000 http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=2085#comment-4779 CS85, Any idea on what other pitches Motte is working on? How are they coming along? CS85,

Any idea on what other pitches Motte is working on? How are they coming along?

]]> By: CardSince85 http://www.futureredbirds.net/2009/01/16/peak-projections-war-spreadsheet-wild-enthusiasm-seed/comment-page-1/#comment-4778 CardSince85 Fri, 16 Jan 2009 18:40:37 +0000 http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=2085#comment-4778 Like I've said before...I know Motte personally (I played with his younger brother and worked out with him during winters) and he's pretty much high on life all day everyday...the kid loves baseball and I can't wait to see what he can do this year with Duncan Like I’ve said before…I know Motte personally (I played with his younger brother and worked out with him during winters) and he’s pretty much high on life all day everyday…the kid loves baseball and I can’t wait to see what he can do this year with Duncan

]]> By: erik http://www.futureredbirds.net/2009/01/16/peak-projections-war-spreadsheet-wild-enthusiasm-seed/comment-page-1/#comment-4776 erik Fri, 16 Jan 2009 18:05:51 +0000 http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=2085#comment-4776 @ Roarke --I concur with theredbaaron. He'll finish in AA, but it's conceivable he finishes in AAA, although that's a very sunny outlook. @ Roarke –I concur with theredbaaron. He’ll finish in AA, but it’s conceivable he finishes in AAA, although that’s a very sunny outlook.

]]> By: theredbaaron http://www.futureredbirds.net/2009/01/16/peak-projections-war-spreadsheet-wild-enthusiasm-seed/comment-page-1/#comment-4775 theredbaaron Fri, 16 Jan 2009 18:01:30 +0000 http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=2085#comment-4775 To roarke: if you want optimism, Reifer finishes in Memphis. I think he'll start in High A ball, bypassing QC altogether, should see Springfield at some point around midseason, and could get one of those push promotions at the very tail end of the season to challenge him. That's probably a bit too optimistic, though. To roarke: if you want optimism, Reifer finishes in Memphis. I think he’ll start in High A ball, bypassing QC altogether, should see Springfield at some point around midseason, and could get one of those push promotions at the very tail end of the season to challenge him.

That’s probably a bit too optimistic, though.

]]> By: roarke http://www.futureredbirds.net/2009/01/16/peak-projections-war-spreadsheet-wild-enthusiasm-seed/comment-page-1/#comment-4774 roarke Fri, 16 Jan 2009 16:56:21 +0000 http://www.futureredbirds.net/?p=2085#comment-4774 Where do you think Riefer will finish the 2009 season, using your most optimistic outlook? Where do you think Riefer will finish the 2009 season, using your most optimistic outlook?

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