2009 #1 Draft Prospect Stephen Strasburg
Now that its February it means we are getting close to baseball. Pitcher and Catchers will be reporting in a couple weeks, and college ball gets underway on Friday the 20th. With all that in mind, its a great time to kick off this year’s draft coverage. We are starting off today with the initial Future Redbirds top 30 draft prospect lists. Of course there will be plenty of movement in these rankings as we make our way toward June, but this list should give you a good idea of some guys to keep track of as the games get under way.
1. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, San Diego State
Next in line behind Mark Prior and David Price as the super elite college pitching prospect. Has excellent command of great stuff. Scott Boras could be the only thing keeping him from being the #1 overall pick.
2. Matthew Purke, LHP, Texas HS
Think Scott Kazmir with a bigger frame. Purke has some effort in his delivery, but he throws mid-90′s from the left side and also has a nasty slider.
3. Alex White, RHP, North Carolina
Prototypical top college pitching prospect. 6’3″ righty with a fastball up to 94 and a devastating slider.
4. Grant Green, SS, Southern California
Think Evan Longoria with the ability to stick at short. Green is the complete package and the top position prospect in this draft.
5. Aaron Crow, RHP, Fort Worth (independent)
Top prospect in last year’s draft who couldn’t agree to a deal with the Nationals. Plus stuff with his fastball and slider as well as very good command. Some questions about his delivery, but he could be an ace.
6. Tyler Matzek, LHP, California HS
High school lefty pitches like a top college prospect. He doesn’t have the pure stuff of Matthew Purke, but he does have a 4-pitch mix from a 6’3″ frame, excellent mechanics, and can touch 94 with the heater. He is the total package.
7. Dustin Ackley, 1b/OF, North Carolina
As pure of a hitter as they come, Ackley could be the next John Olerud. He can pepper the gaps all day long, and could go even higher if he proves he can play the outfield this spring and his power starts to develop.
8. Donavan Tate, OF, Georgia HS
The best athlete in the draft, Tate has committed to play football at North Carolina next year. Has all the tools, but is also one of the riskier picks at the top of the draft.
9. Jacob Turner, RHP, Missouri HS
The next big thing out of St. Louis. He is very polished and has good stuff. Hopefully he avoids having a senior season like Tim Melville had last year.
10. Andrew Oliver, LHP, Oklahoma State
Oliver is the top college lefty in the draft. He is well built at 6’4″ 200 pounds, throws strikes, and can run his fastball up to the mid-90′s.
11. Zack Wheeler, RHP, Georgia HS
High upside high school righty has a big time arm and plenty of projection. He has shown an ability to sit at 94-95 mph with the heater and also flashes a power breaker.
12. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri
The Mizzou ace can touch 94 mph with the fastball, but usually works at 88-92 mph. His best pitch is a slider that could be the best breaking ball in the draft. Rail thin at 6’6″ 195, Gibson still has a lot of projection left for a college hurler.
13. Shelby Miller, RHP, Texas HS
Arguably the fastest rising prospect in the draft. Miller came out of nowhere last summer to hit 94 mph with his fastball and show an ability to throw 3 pitches for strikes.
14. Mike Minor, LHP, Vanderbilt
Extremely polished lefty with a nasty change. Minor has gained velocity and now sits at 89-92 with the fastball. He may still add a little velocity as he fills out his 6’4″ frame, but his stuff and polish is plenty good right now.
15. Kentrail Davis, OF, Tennessee
The sophomore eligible Davis isn’t the tallest guy, but he is built like a tank. After a monster freshman season he was Team USA’s best hitter before going down to injury. He may not profile in center due to his arm, but he can flat out hit and is also a threat to swipe a bag.
16. Mychal Givens, SS/RHP, Florida HS
The super athletic Givens has both great speed and a 97 mph fastball. Questions about his hitting ability lead many to believe he will end up on the mound, but some team may fall in love with the extremely exciting package in the field.
17. Kendal Volz, RHP, Baylor
Tall and built like a horse Volz looks like the prototypical power pitcher, and he has the stuff to back it up. He works at 90-93, touching higher, and he also has a power breaking ball.
18. Austin Maddox, C, Florida HS
Big, strong catching prospect with a power bat and a power arm. May not hit for average, but catchers with power are always in demand. Could also be drafted as a pitcher.
19. Matt Davidson, 3b, California HS
Similar prospect to former California prep star Matt Dominguez, Davidson is polished at the plate and at the hot corner.
20. Luke Bailey, C, Georgia HS
Another member of the strong prep catching crop. Bailey is solid defensively and has a lot of offensive upside.
21. Jason Stoffel, RHP, Arizona
The top relief prospect in the draft possesses a plus fastball and a plus curve. Was the wildcat closer last year over Diamondbacks’ first rounder Daniel Schlereth.
22. Blake Smith, RHP/OF, California
One of the top hitters for Team USA last summer, Smith profiles perfectly in right field with his power bat and power arm. He is also a first round candidate on the mound where he can touch 95 mph with the fastball.
23. Mike Leake, RHP, Arizona State
Smallish Sun Devil hurler has drawn Tim Hudson comparisons for his heavy sinking fastball. Like Hudson, he is also a good hitter and was a star 2nd baseman for Team USA over the summer.
24. Brian Goodwin, OF, North Carolina HS
The Aflac All-American game MVP has all the tools except power. Projects as a prototypical leadoff hitting center fielder in the Kenny Lofton mold.
25. Keyvius Sampson, RHP, Florida HS
Super athletic righty has a power arm that easily blows mid-90′s gas. He also possesses a filthy curveball. Has as much potential as any prep hurler in the draft, and if he maintains his velocity this spring he could go a lot higher than this.
26. Tanner Scheppers, RHP, St. Paul Saints (independent)
Would have gone in the top 10 last year if not for a stress fracture in his shoulder. Before the injury he dominated hitters with a 96 mph fastball as well as a plus slider and curve. If he shows he’s healthy he will fly back up the charts.
27. Ben Tootle, RHP, Jacksonville State
Tootle may actually have more potential than Stoffel as a major league closer. His fastball has been clocked in the high-90′s at times, and he compliments it with a devastating slider.
28. D.J. LeMahieu, SS, LSU
The draft eligible sophomore profiles as an offensive minded shortstop. A new age shortstop at 6’4″ he could eventually provide 20+ homer power from the premium position.
29. Bryan Morgado, LHP, Tennessee
Another draft eligible sophomore, Morgado throws strikes and has good stuff for a lefty. His fastball can touch 94 and he features a big hook.
30. Ryan Jackson, SS, Miami (FL)
Jackson is a slick fielding shortstop who makes good contact, but doesn’t have much power. He profiles as an Adam Everett type at the next level.
Entries (RSS)
man, that is a a ton of pitchers. lemahieu could be seen as a slight reach @ 19, but he sounds really intriguing to me if he could stick at SS. Do you know how his glove is?
zach wheeler will be my personal jones this year…as in i am already jonesing for him…i have a friend that lives in the area of his high school and saw him pitch last year and said he was making the other betters look stupid, just silly…my friend says his mechanics look good, but you can never really know without slow motion video…i’d love for him to fall to 18
http://tinyurl.com/dg8alw
interesting read at THT this morning by Victor Wang. The gist is the research is hitter (college/HS) in first round: good. college pitcher in 1st rd: iffy, high school pitcher in 1st round: too risky. Supp/2nd round it’s better to go college, either with a hitter or a pitcher. 3rd round, college pitcher is safest bet and by then the best college hitters are gone.
At first blush, I think the Cards’ experience in the draft bears this out pretty well.
i would agree with that, mainly due to the TINSTAAPP issues, but i think the cardinals are at a place with minor league depth where we can take a risk on a high upside high school pitcher…just make sure his mechanics are not atrocious
I can look them up – but does anyone know how the Independent league guys (Crowe and Scheppers) performed? That is a lot of pitchers. I’d like to see us draft a middle infielder (SS) early…those guys seem to make it somewhere (2B, 3B, OF) more often than not. I’m sure some will have their stock rise b/w now and then – we won’t see 80% taking pitchers in the first round.
lemahieu has a decent glove, but he was seen as a future third baseman when in high school and he could still end up there. his calling card is his bat.
as for wheeler, he is also one of my favorites. the cardinals need a guy with top of the rotation potential, and wheeler definitely fits that bill.
oh and not that its a big deal, but wheeler is from dallas, georgia…so its actually georgia high school
good call. i usually try and be really careful about that stuff, but i obviously missed this one.
What’s the word on Robert Stock, catcher from USC? He was very highly touted in high school, skipping his senior year to enroll, is he waiting another year?
he’s eligible this year, but his stock has really dropped in college. he is still young and could turn it around, but it looks like he made a big mistake (financially speaking of course) by skipping out on the draft last time.
he is a catcher with a very strong arm and some power potential from the left side, but he hasn’t produced. my guess is he is a 3rd-5th round talent at this point. the problem for him is that this is actually a pretty deep draft for catchers. he might actually be a better prospect as a closer.
I think if Mike Minor manages to drop to the Cardinals spot, then he is there guy. Of course if he asks for anything above slot, then they will take a guy that was projected in the supplemental round.
Oh I love those Redbirds, and their adherence to an imaginary slotting system.
You’ve done it now, Mr. Negative! it’s time for some Mo:
Just messing w/ya, but look, it’s not that they never go over slot, they just don’t really do it in the 1st round. I think they would depending on the player, but I can tell you one thing, it’ll never be for a HS pitcher.
I just don’t get your unhappy tone, for the most part. The Cardinal system is a top ten system for the first time in eons and they spent record bonuses on Latin players on top of what they spent in the draft.
As for Minor, he does seem to be their kind of guy, but I thought the same thing about Christian Freidrich last season. I think they’ll take another hitter 1st rd. Still not real thrilled they didn’t offer arbitration to anyone, at least not for Looper.
I am unhappy, because this farm system will continue to be incomplete, and will never ascend to the top of the heap until they actually put effort into drafting high end starting pitchers. The way they do their business now, I doubt I will see a pitcher with the talent to be more than a back of the rotation starter for the next decade. Or at least until the team is sold after the all star game.
I like Jeff Luhnow, but I think he is trying way to hard to be Billy Beane. He’s got a “smartest man in the room” complex, that is a tad annoying. I especially hated it when he used the fact that Porcello was from the NorthEast as a strike against him. That seems incredibly short sided, and kind of petulant.
I agree, that is a weakness of the system and I’m not sure what to make of it either. Here’s just some random, off the cuff thoughts on that-
1. Just throw out them ever drafting a HS pitcher in the 1st rd. They just bust at such a high rate that it isn’t going to happen, and the really elite ones are going to go before the Cardinals ever pick (Bumgarner) or they price themselves out of the Cards’ budget (porcello)
2. Like it or not, almost the entire league passed on porcello, so what’s the point of beating this dead horse?
3. There are just more back-end types in every draft then front end ones, and pitchers are a lot harder to project b/c of injuries, learning new pitches, the mental aspect, and so forth. Even if a pitchers is a top 100 prospect, it’s also been proven out that over a third of them go bust and half of them end up as back end starters or relievers. I can give show you the research that proves that, if you want. Or you can just look at BA’s historical Top 100′s and see for yourself.
Statistically, when it comes to the draft, the smart thing to do is take the hitter and then load up on college pitchers, which is pretty much what the playbook the Cardinals have followed. They’ve run into some bad luck, but a lot of the pitchers they’ve taken as sandwich and 2nd and 3rd rounders were consensus top 200 draft prospects, but they just haven’t panned out the way they’ve hoped in many cases b/c of injury or what have you, ie furnish, kopp, daley, webber. You could fault the cardinals, but these players have high rates of attrition as it is. For the failures, they also have Mortensen, Todd and Lynn.
4. if you wanna be hindsighted, they should’ve drafted joba chamberlain instead of ottavino, but joba was the 41st pitcher taken overall b/c of injury concerns. they should’ve taken phil hughes (who may be a flameout himself) instead of chris lambert, or even maybe glen perkins (who looks like your dreaded back-end starter), and they should’ve taken brett cecil over clay mortensen, and while cecil had great #’s last year and mortensen did not, neither have contributed anything at the big league level yet. the only huge “miss” is joba, and a lot of teams goofed on that one. speaking of hindsight and dead horses, how about that Mulder deal?
5. when your team is populated with back end starters under team control, you can pay for an ace in free agency. but the cardinals have had to fill out their rotation by paying for free agents. i dare say the cardinals have what it takes to get an ace via a trade once june rolls around and they can trade wallace. he could be this year’s matt laporta, and yes, i believe they have the depth to include what else would be needed to make that sort of deal. if they were willing to part with rasmus, peavy could be a cardinal right now.
i just think a large segment of fans, like the wackos at cards talk, don’t realize how good the position the cardinals are in right now. they have a strong base of talent (85-87 win talent, maybe better depending on what carpenter can contribute this year…not holding my breath) and now a lot more depth in the minors to make deals or allow for great financial flexibility in the future, as long as the regular rate of these prospects pan out.
erik i don’t know about throwing out ever drafting a high school pitcher in the first round. don’t you remember when they took pete kozma the quotes about how blake beaven was taken right out from underneath them?
I have trouble believing that that would have been their actual choice. I think they had Kozma tabbed as their guy from the beginning.
I do seem to recall that. They also considered Hughes before the took Lambert, now that you mention it. I’ll just say I’d be shocked if they ever took a HS pitcher in the first rd. Speaking of Beavan, at least at the moment it looks like a good thing the Rangers did take him. Last I heard his velo was down, although he showed great control his first full season. I don’t think he made BA’s Top 20 for the MWL, did he?
Just want to point out in that same P-D chat fiasco, some guy actually asked Mo a halfway decent question and got this interesting response related to the topic:
[quote]
Run_Sup_Run: With all the depth in the Cardinal system now, will drafting strategy focus on high ceiling instead of what is perceived as low risk / signability picks?
Fer instance… If a Rick Porcello fell to the Cardinals in the 2009 draft, would the Cardinals take him?
John Mozeliak: Great question, every situation is a case by case…but I agree given where we are it would make sense to take someone with the highest perceived value.[/quote]
P.S. Good to see Fewgoodcards again. I was wondering where the 1200 post draft chat was going to land. Looks like UncleBuck will be draft blogging also: http://tinyurl.com/b7qqpl
Great job with the site Erik and all.
- RSR