I don’t have a lot of faith in the Schumaker to 2B conversion. We can compare WARs between Kennedy and Schumaker and show that, even assuming atrocious defense, the drop off should be insignificant or non-existent. Part of the problem is how we’re framing this debate though. We’re going into the season assuming that Kennedy-level performance (~1 WAR) is what we should expect from second. That’s a bogus assumption when their are upgrades available on the free agent market and via trade. Even assuming Schumaker makes a successful conversion and becomes a ~1.5 WAR player at second with below average defense, why are we accepting that as a positive thing?
The Cardinals have, frankly, been abysmal at producing middle infielders. 2B has been a turnstyle of players for several years now. They’ve brought in adequate replacements from veteran castoffs to pick up the slack but the team is continually thin at the position. The collection of “competitors” this year should inspire little hope that the long term answer is about to be found. Joe Thurston, Brendan Ryan and Skip are all marginal possibilities at 2B but they don’t represent anything approaching a real solution or even a league average player. They also reek of reactionary moves rather than proactive decisions.
Current positional adjustments would lend credence to the notion that the difference between 3rd bsaeman and 2nd basemen is minimal at best. Coincidentally, the Cardinals have sn abundance of 3rd basemen in the system. If the Cardinals are serious about making a 2nd basemen for the long term, they should be looking to Allen Craig and not Skip Schumaker. Craig is a touch below average at 3rd base, so it’s reasonable to expect him to be a -5 defender at the keystone.
Player – wOBA CHONE – Defense in runs
Craig – .325 – (-5)
Schumaker – .328 – (-10)
Thurston – .322 – (0)
Ryan – .308 – (0)
Looks to me like Craig is the equivalent of those other players but here’s the kicker — he’s still got some semblance of upside. Schumaker and Thurston aren’t going to become anything more than what they already are. Ryan’s bat is probably done developing but you could argue that he’s a better than neutral defender. Craig is about to get squeezed out of the organization between David Freese and Brett Wallace. Why aren’t the Cardinals proactively trying to prevent this? There’s been rumblings of trying him in the outfield but really only moves the congestion rather than relieving it.
Losing Kennedy isn’t a big deal. Thurston and Schumaker make for adequate short term answers. Holding par shouldn’t be the standard we want the Cardinals to live up to though. Get creative and move Craig to 2B. Let Freese play in the bigs and Wallace learn his defense in AAA. It’s an equal or better solution than anything we’ve seen the Cardinals present to date and it’s the only one that realistically represents an internal upgrade in the long term.
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I still can’t quite understand why Brian Barden isn’t considered a viable candidate for second base. Could someone please set me straight here? I know he’s “unproven”, but I’ve got to think he’s got more promise than Brendan Ryan.
Barden is something akin to Ryan. A .310 projection with average or better defense. The fact that he didn’t get a callup last year would indicate to me that the club isn’t very high on him.
I think the idea of moving Craig to 2nd base is the best idea yet. I think we saw how Hoffpair was last year at Memphis…. not much future there.
AZ – I know you are a lot more atune to our prospects than I, but I don’t see Barden as the same player that Ryan is. Barden hit 9 home runs last year in less than a full season at Memphis…I don’t see Ryan hitting with that kind of moderate power. Also, the arguement about not getting a call-up doesn’t work for me. Freese deserved a call-up much more-so than Barden last year, especially while Glaus was out and he never made the bus-ride. I still think he’s got more promise than Ryan and could be a solid everyday keystoner through his first couple of arb years.
Akin in overall value not necessarily specific skills. Barden and Ryan both strike me as ~1 WAR type players.
I think we’re being a bit too pessimistic on Schumaker’s potential infield defense.
Sure he hasn’t taken groundballs in years, so we don’t know that he can play second, but we don’t know that he CAN’T either. Before we assume -10 runs on defense, we should at least let him get some time in during spring training first and wait for some reports.
It wouldn’t surprise me if he was capable of a quality defensive performance. I’m not saying it’s entirely likely, but I feel like there’s at least a good chance he’ll be better than -10 runs, if still below average.
As far as Allen Craig goes, I think -5 is a bit optimistic, but I do agree that there’s no sense in not trying Freese and Craig out at 2B. After all, we are trying Skip there, and LaRussa wants a competition, so let’s add some competitors, right?
I mean if it’s really a competition, shouldn’t there be open tryouts? Seriously, they should bring everyone in on this. All the MI at AAA, maybe even a couple from AA. Why not?
Someone who hasn’t played for years in the infield I’m being too pessimistic about but someone with actual data (Craig is a -3 at 3rd) I’m too optimistic about. Sorry, I think you’ve got some bias towards Schumaker that’s unwarranted.
Perhaps. I admit, I am hopeful, and (in full disclosure) he is an alum of UCSB, where I currently attend.
But look at Kelly Johnson as an example. He made a pretty good transition to 2B after a few years in the OF.
Don’t misunderstand me, Schumaker’s ability to play second effectively is far from ‘in the bag’, and Kelly Johnson had professional experience at SS before moving to the OF. I just think until he actually starts working out at second, we can leave the door open to more positive (or perhaps more appropriately, less negative) projections and that -10 is pretty close to a worst case scenario.
You make a fair point regarding Craig. I guess my thinking is that Schumaker seems to be more athletic than Craig, whom I haven’t heard anything positive about defensively and, last I heard, was preparing to shift further down the defensive spectrum to LF.
I guess I’m just saying that we haven’t seen how Schumaker handles second yet, and in the meantime I don’t see any reason not to be cautiously hopeful.
Kelly Johnson isn’t a viable comp – he was a middle infielder for his career, spend 1 year in the outfield and missed the next season before moving back to second base. Schumaker was a shortstop in college but hasn’t played in the infield since – it’s been over 6 year (if I recall correctly).
I agree with your premise, in theory. Most of the reports I have seen about Craig, though, mention that he has limited range for a 3b. I don’t think that would translate well into playing 2b. Just my two cents.
“Range” at 2b is a very different proposition from “range” at 3b — less emphasis on lightning-quick reflexes and more on getting to the right location in time, over times longer than fractions of a second. I haven’t seen Craig play but would want to know just why his range is limited before ruling him out as a candidate for a 2b switch. If it’s “all of the above,” the switch won’t take, but if it’s specifically a slow first step, he may be OK there. Jeter’s first step ain’t anything to brag about either…
I’m a complete agnostic on this job opening. If it’s competed on the level, spring training this year could be very interesting to watch.
Skip is very athletic and he seems to have become a conditioning freak. I also seem to think he is a hardworker. He has great speed. I think if he works at it hard enough, which I feel he is capable of, we just may have a new second baseman.
This is something I’d like to see them try. There’s no telling whether Craig can make the switch or not, but being that they’ve got to do something with him soon and it’s more logical for a 3B to go to 2B than a CF, it seems an experiment the FO could get behind.
I agree with the basic premise that Craig should be given a shot at 2b. We’ve got nothing to lose as his baptism will be in the minors and, since he was an infielder in college, he has an outside chance at success. Skip Schumaker does not, and I like Skip Schumaker. I am trying to suppress an impulse to promote his trial as the starting second baseman so that we would not have to hear more suggestions that anybody in a baseball uniform can play the position. They can’t. Second base is a skill position that requires an array of competencies particularly in the variety of throwing angles to first and second that need to be mastered. They are less natural than the throws that shortstops and third basemen make and therefore require more practice and experience. It is not a good thing to have a ground ball pitching staff, a new shortstop and, for a period of time, a new third baseman trying to cover for the inexperience of novice second baseman. Barring an acquisition Barden or Ryan will eventually be the starter because they won’t be defensively negative. That ain’t great but neither was Kennedy.
However the new Cardinal shortstop(KG) is a plus defender and if the interim thirdbaseman is Freese , I have heard he is pretty good defensively.
I’ve wondered about Craig as well. It would seem a more natural transition from 3B to 2B than from CF to 2B. My guess is that the Cardinals don’t have any real plans to turn over the starting 2B job to Schumaker, but maybe I’m wrong.
As far as Craig is concerned, the Cardinals must truly believe he cannot play 2B. They have had ample opportunity and reason to give Craig a look at 2B is he were capable of playing it, yet they haven’t, so that tells you something. Of course, they did the same thing with Schumaker, so who knows?
Did Craig get an invite to Major League camp?
Let the open competition begin!
ok seriously. it was debatable that craig was good enough to make the utility corner infield role a few weeks ago and now hes a starter? what is going on with our cardinals. im completely ok with releasing kennedy considering hes probably only worth a million and with his bad attitude might be a negative but no replacement? i dont want craig, thurston, ryan, greene or any other “in house” candidate to play second. its not a requirement that we have a sucky player at second it just seems that way watching the cardinals.
so who plays second? i have a couple ideas.
trade ankiel and motte for gonzalez and prado. this would only give us a marginal second baseman but it gives us a guy with potential and it gives us a closer. greene/prado/in house is still not good but its better. and we get a closer.
ankiel for zobrist straight up. look up zobrists numbers from last year. thats all the explanation.
roberts and sherrill from baltimore solves problems in a big way but we dont match up well with them. also with roberts pending free agency its only a short term solution.
get dan uggla. this is all i want for christmas. he solves a lot of problems for the next 3 years. we can trade anderson, motte, skip, ank, dunc, mather, boggs, todd, or anyone else they want. a four for one with almost any four of those sounds ok with me.
sign orlando hudson? i like hudson but with our draft pick i dont think hes a cardinal. maybe if we could get him on a good 3 year deal but it still seems like a stretch.
skip? i have no idea which means its probably a bad idea.
durham or grudz? both r solid one year fixes i guess. nothing exciting at all but probably an upgrade over kennedy so at least we would accomplish something.
I agree Az. Organizationally, if we are going to rely on our system to fill the ml roster we need to be moving people to positions of need before they get to the show. I have no idea if Craig could do second, but if not, what is he going to do? So far, they have given away Reyes, sent two players to SD in order to pay KG 2x his FA value, ???. They need to either move folks around more aggressively or trade more aggressively. Giving lots of innings to Schu to “learn” 2nd during ST while trying to sort through the 4 or 5 other choices seems inefficient.
Also, the 2nd base carrousel makes me wonder what kind of relationship there is between 2nd base productivity and team success. No question we did better with Vina, Grud, and Womack.
I think David Craig will be playing some 2nd base at Memphis this year… with the Walrus starting at 3B at Springfield or Memphis.
Allen Craig, BTW. But I do agree with you. None of our current options at second are future players, but Craig might be. I would like to see what he can do at second then give him a shot in 2010.
I think -5 for Craig is incredibly optimistic. He’s blocked at 3rd and won’t go very far with this organization playing in the outfield (though his runs/150 was actually +1), but I don’t really think there’s any upside with him at 2nd base.
I’m still holding out unrealistic hope that they’ll go seriously after Brian Roberts.
This -5 seems to be tough for people to swallow. It’s a two step conclusion:
1) Tango’s defensive adjustments tell us 3rd baseman and 2nd baseman are equivalent defenders in modern baseball.
2) CHONE projects Craig as a -3 3rd basemen.
1) Yes, equivalent importance wise, but different skill sets. Instincts, First Step, Speed, Hands are all more important to a 2B and Strength and Accuracy of arm are more important to a 3B.
2) CHONE doesn’t project anything. Totalzone says he was -3/150 in 2008 at 3B, for what it’s worth he was also like +9/150 in 2007 at 3B. These defensive metrics are still very volatile though, I honestly wouldn’t use them that much, although they are neat to look at. Also, for what it’s worth, CHONE’s actual defensively projection of major leaguers are quite good because they look at more than one seasons of data and use STATS, BIS, and FSR, to go with TZ.
Honestly, I don’t think either Craig or Schumaker can be more than a -5 2B.
1) Sure there are some differences but Craig’s arm is week and his lack of range wouldn’t be exposed grossly more at 2B than 3B. The Fan Scouting Report looked at some of these.
2) Wrong. CHONE has defensive projections for 2009. They say he’ll be -3 at 3B so I rounded down to -5 at 2B.
If the Cardinals want to find an internal option they should try shuffling some players prior to major leagues. That’s not when you want a player to try and learn a radically new position. If I have to pick between converting Schu in the majors and Craig in the minors, I think Craig’s conversion is more likely to be successful.
It won’t let me respond to your comment, but I’ll just respond here.
2) Your wrong and Craig isn’t even on that list you linked to, that is for major leaguers, when has Craig ever played in the major leagues? Those projections include BIS, STATS, FSR, and TZ. Your referencing -3 from minorleaguesplits which is only TZ.
I hate the limited nested ability on WordPress.
2) You’re right. Had that mixed up.
Craig simply doesn’t have the range to be a passable second baseman. He has a better chance finding AB if Scumaker moves out of that crowded outfield.
I think Thurston is an underrated option here. He’ll be an improvement over Kennedy and that’s all you can really hope for given current payroll constraints.
Thurston’s defensive numbers last year were nothing short of spectacular, according to BP’s FRAA (+17 runs in fewer than 100 games at 2nd base), so if the Cards could coax a .700 OPS out of him–his MLB equivalent was around .675 in 2008–Thurston could actually be an above-average regular. Remember, he was a highly-regarded prospect several years back, and has never gotten a legit shot in the majors; sounds a bit like Ryan Ludwick, no?
As for Allen Craig, I like the creative thinking, but at 6′ 3″ 210 lbs. AC would almost certainly be the biggest 2nd baseman in big league history. I just can’t see him making the turn on the DP (it’s the same reason NFL teams prefer cornerbacks who are 6′ 0″ and under…tighter turning radius).
I’d suggest ditching FRAA forever now that we have TotalZone at the minor league level at minorleaguespits.com. (PS — TZ doesn’t like Thurston’s defense.)
I agree with you. If Thurston’s bat shows up at ST like it did for Boston last season, we’ll all breathe a little easier.
I think that Craig could become a poor man’s Uggla in time. I think he should stay in Springfield and start at 2nd everyday until he proves he can’t do it. Isn’t that what the minors are for.
John Maracek has long distance video of Skip and Tyler Greene taking grounders in Jupiter. Greene is the smooth one.
http://johnmarecek.blogspot.com/2009/02/skip-schumaker-at-2nd-base.html
I have been beating this drum for some time. It really hurts nothing for the organization to try this. It’s not like Craig would be blocking someone else at the position and he realistically has no chance at reaching the majors as a 3B.
I have previously written that Craig Biggio moved from All-Star catcher in ’91 to All-star 2nd baseman in ’92 with no professional or college experience at 2nd. I am not suggesting Schumaker = Biggio (Would be nice, though), but it does tell me to not say it won’t work until it doesn’t work.
I am a proponent of Craig learning 2nd base. The move from 3rd to 2nd isn’t as big a leap as that from catcher or outfield to 2nd base. Don’t say it won’t work until it doesn’t work.
The problem here is TLR’s ego. TLR shipped out AK for nothing because TLR didn’t want him around. Not because that was the best move for the team. How can removing a player from a competition like this be the best thing for the team? SUre he is a cancer, whatever. Is he not likely our best option? Mozeliak said he was done signing free agents, and was going with our in house options for 2nd base. Ridiculous. AK should not have been released until we were SURE somebody would be better than AK. None of what we have currently will likely be better than AK. Tony LaRussa made YET ANOTHER huge massive mistake in roster management here, and the sooner he is out of st louis the better.
Mo needs to get his own guy in there. A manager that will not squabble with every decision he makes. Mo knows what hes doing. TLR is not a GM for a reason. TLR can manage, but roster decisions needs to be left up to Mo. PEriod. TLR ego > grand canyon.
it gets old replying to posters when nobody replies to mine but whatever.
i agree with everything u said except the part about getting rid of tony. we won in 06. if he wants to get a little egocentric he gets a pass in my book. what u failed to mention is who would manage instead of tony. everybody knows the problem yet nobody knows the solution. who do u want buck showalter? he and bobby knight r good friends and have very similar personalities. its not a friendly persona but its a winning one. do u remember the cardinals before larussa? do u?
i want a winner. i dont care that the best manager in the game today, who just happens to manage our team, has an ego. his ego gives us confidence. his ego helped our undermanned team win 86 games last year. whats really important personal feelings or championships?
don’t take this the wrong way, but whining about no one replying to your comments is a sure way to get even more ignored.
Bob Knight left his program in disarray, and IU has been struggling since to regain some semblance of recruiting power. It’s a much different game, so I’d hesitate to compare Knight and LaRussa in anything aside from temperament.
I know I’m late to the party (hiatus shmiatus) but does anyone else think that the Cards should try Freese at 2B as well? While he may be the 3B to start the season we all know that it’s Wallace’s job in 2010. I’m not a huge believer in Freese’s bat but I’m sure he’s got more than enough to play 2B.
I’m thinking that the title of this posting needs to have “less” taken out of it with a couple of the ideas in the replies.