Things you never want to read.
Mitchell Boggs, the righthanded starter vying for a spot on the Cardinals’ depth chart as their No. 6 starter, has experienced tightness in his right shoulder during early bullpen sessions. Boggs will be evaluated by team doctors today as part of the pre-spring physicals, but management acknowledged that Boggs has felt some discomfort that has merited mention on the initial medical reports presented to the front office Friday.
Updated 3:19PM. Update on Boggs from Leach, things may not be as bad as initially feared:
Mitchell Boggs got some good news about his tight right shoulder. The tentative plan is to rest him for a few days, let the anti-inflammatory medication take effect and re-evaluate him early next week, but we were told that the concern level is lower than it was yesterday.
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hopefully its nothing serious boggs could be a big part of this team this year if carp cant go
that is bad news. Does that make PJ Walters the “6th starter”?
Well, it’s not something you want to hear. Hope it’s not too bad.
And the decision not to sign a starter is starting to look worse….
So I guess that anti-inflammatory drug they gave him is a tylenol?
probably an ibuprofen or aleve type thing more than tylenol
isn’t im cortisone the drug of choice?
Hopefully it’s just a matter of shaking the rust of the arm and nothing more.
I hope Mitch is just fine…but healthy or otherwise, the fewer innings he throws at the MLB level, the better off the Cards will be. The man just ain’t a major league pitcher; not yet anyway.
I blame former scout Keith Law and his bizarre ranking of Boggs 12 months ago for completely distorting the expectations of some Cardinal fans. Law saw Boggs throw hard in the 2007 AFL and accordingly ranked him among the 30 or 40 best pitching prospects in baseball (#75 overall prospect, if I recall). Up until that very moment, I think the vast majority of Cardinal fans understood what Boggs was: an “organizational arm”, a guy who was old for his leagues in the minors, and in no way dominant; a guy who *might* make it as an MLB reliever, but who had nothing in his minor league performances (much like Mike Parisi) to indicate he could even be an acceptable #4/5 starter for a good team.
I don’t consider myself pessimistic about Mitch Boggs, just realistic.
Bob,I think the expectations come more from what the organization thinks of him than from what a scout with BA has to think of him. Most of the organization is high on him as a starter and they have seen him alot more than the scouts and I am just guessing, more than you have seen him. If he comes out with his changeup improved he will be a force this year. By the way, how many times have you seen him pitch.
Bob, I’d consider that position overly pessimistic. What are you basing it on: a few unimpressive innings in his debut cuppa and a K-rate that’s dropped slightly each year of his (3-year) march through the organization? By that standard, Dan Haren was an “organizational arm” heading into 2004.
Boggs was never old for his league, either—whatever that means for pitchers not named Satchel Paige… He’s 25 this year and coming off a season in which the PCL manager named him the league’s best pitching prospect, opinions that were unlikely swayed by anything Keith Law ever said.
Boggs was PCL Pitcher of the Year–this is not the same as Best Pitching Prospect. The managers were acknowledging Boggs’ effective pitching in ’08, not forecasting his big league future.
Also, take a good look at Dan Haren’s minor league record and you’ll notice a spectacular K/BB ratio, and uniformly excellent strikeout rates. Nothing like Boggs. At all.
Boggs was *always* old for his leagues, if by age-appropriate we’re talking about the average age/level of actual future big league regulars/starting pitchers–that is 23 in AAA, 22 in AA, etc..
Boggs = old for leagues, mediocre K rates (and worsening), unexceptional GB/FB ratios, so-so walk rates, and solid ERAs–but with a lot of UNearned runs until last year.
If this is the profile of a future solid #4/5 MLB starter, then someone somewhere should be able to find multiple *current* MLB solid #4/5 starters with a very similar minor league record.
I cannot find one. One.
To put my ripping of Boggs into context, I like the Redbird farm system probably more than anybody this side of Jeff Luhnow. In fact I think it rivals the Rangers for best in the business…but Mitch Boggs is not a part of that excellence. He’s organizational depth, a possible useful middle relief arm; maybe short relief.
I watched Boggs pitch for the Cards several times last year. I saw a guy with a bad, bad ERA & atrocious strikeout-to walk numbers. There were no markers for future success as an MLB starter…just like his several dozen minor league performances.
A few solid 4/5 pitchers with minor league careers similar to Boggs: Jon Garland (although a high school guy), Ross Ohlendorf, Gavin Floyd, Nick Blackburn, Nate Robertson, Micah Owings.
He’s not Dan Haren, but Dan Haren didn’t look like a world-beater in his first AAA season or his first few outings for the Cardinals, either. He’s only been a pro for three full seasons, give the guy a chance before writing him off as organizational cannon fodder. I’ve seen him pitch against minor-leaguers and he’s got more than he showed last year in his call-up. His biggest problem as far as I can tell is start-to-start consistency.
Here’s hoping that happens and he can change your mind this year.
Ohlendorf has been a bad MLB pitcher–and mostly a reliever on top of it. (Career ERA over 6.00 so far.) We don’t want Boggs to become Ohlendorf do we?
Garland was a successful major leaguer at the tender age of 21, while Boggs was an MLB disaster at 24…so no need to discuss him.
Floyd was much better in AA at age 21 (2.57 ERA in 20 starts) than Boggs was in AA at age 23, so Mitch is wayyyy behind Gavin’s minor league pace.
Nick Blackburn had vastly superior control in his minor league career (just 19 walks in 149 innings his last minor league season), much much better than Boggs has shown at any level.
Robertson is indeed sorta comparable…but being a southpaw he’s not *truly* comparable, as historically lefty starters don’t need as much velocity or as high a K rate to have as much success as their righty counterparts.
Owings also is kind of similar–but in AA at 23 (the same age as Boggs) Owings had a much higher strikeout rate, and an excellent K/BB ratio of better than 4-1. Furthermore, Owings at age 23 across AA & AAA surrendered homers at *half* the rate Boggs did in AA only at the same age–a strong marker for Micah’s future possible success.
I’d very much prefer to be proven wrong; I’d really prefer to have rational hope that Boggs could be a solid back-of-the-rotation guy. But I’d put his chances at about 25 or 30-1, or basically statistically insignificant. Reliever, maybe. Starter, nope.
But keep looking for comparables, ’cause I’d rather be wrong than right.
Honest. :)