Garland was a successful major leaguer at the tender age of 21, while Boggs was an MLB disaster at 24…so no need to discuss him.

Floyd was much better in AA at age 21 (2.57 ERA in 20 starts) than Boggs was in AA at age 23, so Mitch is wayyyy behind Gavin’s minor league pace.

Nick Blackburn had vastly superior control in his minor league career (just 19 walks in 149 innings his last minor league season), much much better than Boggs has shown at any level.

Robertson is indeed sorta comparable…but being a southpaw he’s not *truly* comparable, as historically lefty starters don’t need as much velocity or as high a K rate to have as much success as their righty counterparts.

Owings also is kind of similar–but in AA at 23 (the same age as Boggs) Owings had a much higher strikeout rate, and an excellent K/BB ratio of better than 4-1. Furthermore, Owings at age 23 across AA & AAA surrendered homers at *half* the rate Boggs did in AA only at the same age–a strong marker for Micah’s future possible success.

I’d very much prefer to be proven wrong; I’d really prefer to have rational hope that Boggs could be a solid back-of-the-rotation guy. But I’d put his chances at about 25 or 30-1, or basically statistically insignificant. Reliever, maybe. Starter, nope.

But keep looking for comparables, ’cause I’d rather be wrong than right.

Honest. :)

He’s not Dan Haren, but Dan Haren didn’t look like a world-beater in his first AAA season or his first few outings for the Cardinals, either. He’s only been a pro for three full seasons, give the guy a chance before writing him off as organizational cannon fodder. I’ve seen him pitch against minor-leaguers and he’s got more than he showed last year in his call-up. His biggest problem as far as I can tell is start-to-start consistency.

Here’s hoping that happens and he can change your mind this year.

Also, take a good look at Dan Haren’s minor league record and you’ll notice a spectacular K/BB ratio, and uniformly excellent strikeout rates. Nothing like Boggs. At all.

Boggs was *always* old for his leagues, if by age-appropriate we’re talking about the average age/level of actual future big league regulars/starting pitchers–that is 23 in AAA, 22 in AA, etc..

Boggs = old for leagues, mediocre K rates (and worsening), unexceptional GB/FB ratios, so-so walk rates, and solid ERAs–but with a lot of UNearned runs until last year.

If this is the profile of a future solid #4/5 MLB starter, then someone somewhere should be able to find multiple *current* MLB solid #4/5 starters with a very similar minor league record.

I cannot find one. One.

To put my ripping of Boggs into context, I like the Redbird farm system probably more than anybody this side of Jeff Luhnow. In fact I think it rivals the Rangers for best in the business…but Mitch Boggs is not a part of that excellence. He’s organizational depth, a possible useful middle relief arm; maybe short relief.

I watched Boggs pitch for the Cards several times last year. I saw a guy with a bad, bad ERA & atrocious strikeout-to walk numbers. There were no markers for future success as an MLB starter…just like his several dozen minor league performances.

Boggs was never old for his league, either—whatever that means for pitchers not named Satchel Paige… He’s 25 this year and coming off a season in which the PCL manager named him the league’s best pitching prospect, opinions that were unlikely swayed by anything Keith Law ever said.

I blame former scout Keith Law and his bizarre ranking of Boggs 12 months ago for completely distorting the expectations of some Cardinal fans. Law saw Boggs throw hard in the 2007 AFL and accordingly ranked him among the 30 or 40 best pitching prospects in baseball (#75 overall prospect, if I recall). Up until that very moment, I think the vast majority of Cardinal fans understood what Boggs was: an “organizational arm”, a guy who was old for his leagues in the minors, and in no way dominant; a guy who *might* make it as an MLB reliever, but who had nothing in his minor league performances (much like Mike Parisi) to indicate he could even be an acceptable #4/5 starter for a good team.

I don’t consider myself pessimistic about Mitch Boggs, just realistic.