I wrote a post at Beyond the Boxscore on NL Central Farm System Values. The Cardinals and Brewers have the best collection of prospects in the division, while the Astros and Cubs are just plain bad.
|
6 Responses to “NL Central Farm System Values”
Leave a Reply
|
|
Entries (RSS)
So does Garcia factor into this calc?
C+, 22 years old or younger, although by the time he’s fully healthy he will be 23. That takes his value from 1.9 to 1.3m. If you want to give him a B- grade in your own mind, that would be alright w/me (6.5M) , although fans of the other teams would argue some of their guys too.
Also interesting to me is haw the system blends differing prospect evaluation systems. Using BA as a guide you get Lawrie and Odorizzi high on the list due to them favoring ceiling over track record. Where as Sickels favors performance. If we were to just use BA the Brewers might extend the gap a bit. If we were to just use Sickels, I bet the Cardinals come out ahead.
The methodology is what it is and interesting at that. I wonder if there is a better one for the ranking selection though.
what would probably be best is to use a blend over the last few years and then assign value.
Victor used ’91-99 and then Sickels grades from 97-99, I believe, to find his averages. Both BA and Sickels have been doing it the longest, and have good enough track records, so i think the system is fair enough. Of course, if one thinks a player deserves a higher or a lower grade, you can calculate them yourself and fudge the numbers to fit your particular slant. I wouldn’t run a comparison to other systems that way, because of how much bias would be involved, but you get the idea.
This is very interesting work. How do you deal with the large uncertainties associated with a Latin American recruiting and development programs, the value of which is unclear? I don’t think anybody, including Wang, Sickels, etc., has a good handle yet on just how the products from those programs will slot into the top-100 (or top-XXX) lists.
Out of curiosity, erik(or anyone else) how would you rank the prospects in the NLC 1-10? I know it doesn’t speak of anyone’s particular depth but I’d put Rasmus, Wallace and Jones 1-3-7(Rasmus, Alvarez, Wallace, Alonso, Vitters, Gamel, Jones, McCutchen, Escobar, Lawrie).