Hey, just popping in with a couple of things today. Here is a post idea I wanted to do for a while but just hadn’t found the time until today.
I think as we look at the players in our team’s favorite farm system, sometimes if we are not careful we can get rose-colored glasses when it comes to our outlook of the future of these players. But the truth is, most of these players we find ourselves pulling for simply won’t ever make it.
Victor Wang has done some tremendous research about prospects and their value. In determining their value he had to find the rate of which players bust in each category he divided them into. This is a healthy dose of realism to keep in mind when we’re looking at the Cardinal farm system.
- 10% of top 10 hitting prospects bust. (Colby Rasmus)
- 31% of top 10 pitching prospects bust.
- 21% of top 11-25 hitting prospects bust.
- 32% of top 11-25 pitching prospects bust.
- 35% of top 26-50 hitting prospects bust. (Brett Wallace)
- 33% of top 26-50 pitching prospects bust.
- 45% of top 51-75 hitting prospects bust.
- 39% of top 51-75 pitching prospects bust.
- 43% of top 76-100 hitting prospects bust.
- 43% of top 76-100 pitching prospects bust. (Chris Perez)
- 59% of “B grade” hitting prospects bust. (Daryl Jones, Jon Jay)
- 52% of “B grade” pitching prospects bust. (Jess Todd)
- 83% of “C grade” hitting prospects bust.
- Around 75% of all “C grade” pitching prospects bust.
The lower you go in the rankings, the higher the rates in attrition, obviously. The Cardinals have 32 grade C players, which is tremendous depth when you think about it, but only 6 of them are likely to make it, and the odds are extremely low that any of them develop into an everyday player. We’re talking about 6 middle relievers, backup catchers, 4th/5th outfielders or utility infielders.
Now, there is a chance that some of the C or C+ players bud into a Top 100 prospect either next year or so, thus increasing their stock greatly. The players in my mind who have Top 100 talent are despite C grades are Jaime Garcia, Daryl Jones, Bryan Anderson, Francisco Samuel, Adam Reifer and Roberto de la Cruz. I believe Jones made Law’s Top 100 and Garcia/Anderson have been there before.
I’d also personally say Lynn, Mortensen, Vasquez, and Kozma have B grade talent and could raise their value a bit in the near future as well.
My overall point is that while the farm system is more healthy than it’s been in a very long time, there will be a lot of attrition along the way. Out of 200+ minor leaguers the Cardinals have, having 9 to 11 of them contributing at the big league level at some point would count as a major success, and out of that group only a few will play everyday. Not trying to burst anyone’s bubble, but it’s important that we’re grounded in reality when we’re examining the farm system.
OK, fading back into the background now…
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9-11 seems low as the Cards seem to be hitting their target of 3 per draft class and there would seem to be 4-5 draft classes backed up in the minors. This is before they add 2 per year (not yet realized) which is their goal for international signings. It would seems 18-20 of our prospects should be expected to contribute at the Major League level at some point.
Welcome back!
This is a nice story but I think it’s also important to tell the curmudgeons in the local media (cough … Bernie … Strauss … cough) that just because fans like us follow the progress of minor leaguers in the Cardinals system doesn’t mean we have unrealistic ideas about the possibility they’ll actually make it to St. Louis.
Look, chances are a little guy like Shane Robinson won’t make it. But, geez, the guy hit .352 in AA last year! That’s quite an accomplishment! That’s one heck of a season, in any league!
If Daryl Jones makes it, I’ll remember seeing him look overmatched in rookie ball. I’ll remember the flashes he showed. I’ll be happy be finally put things together. If not, I’ll probably forget his name in a couple of years.
Honestly, if any of these guys make it, I’ll feel better about it than some random fan who knows nothing. For “baseball’s smartest fans” we all know there are a lot of idiots who wear red and know nothing about the players on our team, much less the players in our system.
I like the idea that I could talk with many of you about a guy like Jermaine Curtis when some of our local “experts” in the media probably don’t even know his name.
But just because I know something about Curtis or Jones or Robinson, doesn’t mean that I think they’re all “Fabrerge Eggs.”
[[steps quietly off soap box]]
The research is correct of course. Many of these guys “bust” because of injuries, personal problems or other reasons than talent but some of the greatest prospects simply don’t make an impact and fade away (see Cory Patterson). One of our problems is that, despite having a weak system for many years the Cardinals still came up with a lot of contributing players. There’s a tendency to think that, if Chris Duncan, Joe Mather, Skip Schumaker et al can become genuine major leaguers then, my heavens, what can Colby Rasmus and Brett Wallace become? It doesn’t necessarily follow though. I think you’re right that some of the younger guys in the system will eventually be ranked in the B or even top 100 levels but we will probably get mostly a good flow of average players out of our current crop. My hope is that the team recognizes that, having propped up the system as a whole, they need to take some chances on more high potential prospects. It will be interesting to see if the recent Latin American signings reflect that realization.
Oh yeah, welcome back!!
thanks. . I wouldn’t say I’m back, though. Just a post I had in mind for a while and found the time to do it today. I will post here every now and then, but not probably all that often.
10% chance of bust? That means 90% chance of success. Man I love Colby!
That depends on your definition of success. According to the Victor Wang study, half of Top Ten position prospects end up in the “contributor” category, basically what Adam Kennedy was in 2008 or even a little worse.
erik’s whole fantasy team can fall under this post
oh! burn!
I wonder what these numbers tell us, other than that most won’t make it. Does it tell us anything about what our organizational approach should be re: drafting/signing players? Highly ranked hitters are more likely to make it than highly ranked pitchers but after the top 25 prospects or so, pitchers are more likely to make it than hitters. Does that affect how we should draft when drafting in the top 25 picks or afterward? Does it mean that the top ranked pitching prospects are slightly overhyped or overvalued? Should you focus on hitters earlier in the draft and pitchers in the 2nd round or later?
that’s exactly right, chuck. It would be much better to take the best hitter available in the first round. Your B and C hitters don’t stand much of a chance of making much of an impact, and that many times is what you’re getting in the 2nd-4th rounds. Those are the rounds to load up on pitching prospects.
this article from Mr. Wang bears that out http://tinyurl.com/dg8alw