Hey, just popping in with a couple of things today. Here is a post idea I wanted to do for a while but just hadn’t found the time until today.
I think as we look at the players in our team’s favorite farm system, sometimes if we are not careful we can get rose-colored glasses when it comes to our outlook of the future of these players. But the truth is, most of these players we find ourselves pulling for simply won’t ever make it.
Victor Wang has done some tremendous research about prospects and their value. In determining their value he had to find the rate of which players bust in each category he divided them into. This is a healthy dose of realism to keep in mind when we’re looking at the Cardinal farm system.
- 10% of top 10 hitting prospects bust. (Colby Rasmus)
- 31% of top 10 pitching prospects bust.
- 21% of top 11-25 hitting prospects bust.
- 32% of top 11-25 pitching prospects bust.
- 35% of top 26-50 hitting prospects bust. (Brett Wallace)
- 33% of top 26-50 pitching prospects bust.
- 45% of top 51-75 hitting prospects bust.
- 39% of top 51-75 pitching prospects bust.
- 43% of top 76-100 hitting prospects bust.
- 43% of top 76-100 pitching prospects bust. (Chris Perez)
- 59% of “B grade” hitting prospects bust. (Daryl Jones, Jon Jay)
- 52% of “B grade” pitching prospects bust. (Jess Todd)
- 83% of “C grade” hitting prospects bust.
- Around 75% of all “C grade” pitching prospects bust.
The lower you go in the rankings, the higher the rates in attrition, obviously. The Cardinals have 32 grade C players, which is tremendous depth when you think about it, but only 6 of them are likely to make it, and the odds are extremely low that any of them develop into an everyday player. We’re talking about 6 middle relievers, backup catchers, 4th/5th outfielders or utility infielders.
Now, there is a chance that some of the C or C+ players bud into a Top 100 prospect either next year or so, thus increasing their stock greatly. The players in my mind who have Top 100 talent are despite C grades are Jaime Garcia, Daryl Jones, Bryan Anderson, Francisco Samuel, Adam Reifer and Roberto de la Cruz. I believe Jones made Law’s Top 100 and Garcia/Anderson have been there before.
I’d also personally say Lynn, Mortensen, Vasquez, and Kozma have B grade talent and could raise their value a bit in the near future as well.
My overall point is that while the farm system is more healthy than it’s been in a very long time, there will be a lot of attrition along the way. Out of 200+ minor leaguers the Cardinals have, having 9 to 11 of them contributing at the big league level at some point would count as a major success, and out of that group only a few will play everyday. Not trying to burst anyone’s bubble, but it’s important that we’re grounded in reality when we’re examining the farm system.
OK, fading back into the background now…