Done Deal: Gregerson completes Khalil Green trade
Posted on March 23rd, 2009 by erik in Luke Gregerson, Mark WorrellEh. I liked Gregerson, he had one of the better sinker/slider combos of anyone in the system, but the club has a plethora of right-handed relief as it is. BA rated him the Cards’ 29th best prospect. Last week, it was announced that Mark Worrell is going to undergo Tommy John surgery. So far it’s hard to like this deal from a the standpoint of a Padre fan.
Note: As pointed out by Alex, I goofed big time on my last analysis, but since I’m the godfather I’m going to take a mulligan. 23 year old C pitching prospects have a surplus value of $1.3M each. It’s that low because they have a 78% chance of busting, a 19% of becoming a contributor and a 3% chance of being an everyday player according to Victor Wang’s piece in The Hardball Times Baseball Annual 2009. Khalil Greene is projected to be a 1.5 wins above replacement player, worth about $6.6M on the free agent market…the predicted free agent market that is. It’s more like $6.15 given the amount of below market deals made this winter, perhaps even less. Greene’s salary is $6.5M. So in the end, the Cardinals gave up $2.3M in assets and are paying an above market salary for Greene.
Doesn’t look like a win, but considering they only had to give up two older C prospects for someone who has not long ago posted WARs of 3.8 and 3.5, it’s definitely worthwhile move in my view. So far in spring training at least, Greene looks like a good bounce back candidate, both offensively and defensively.
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per strauss?
will miss gregerson, was real excited to see how pitched this season.
whoops. my bad.
Also, Isa Garcia released…
http://www.stltoday.com/blogzone/bird-land/bird-land/2009/03/cardinals-release-five-minor-leaguers-from-camp/
erik,
I’m kind of confused by your analysis here. If Greene is worth exactly what he is being paid, then his surplus value is zero, which is what should be measured against the price the Cards paid.
If the cards are paying him his market value PLUS giving up $2.6 mil in other assets, that means they are effectively paying $9.1 mil for $6.6 mil worth of assets. That doesn’t strike me as a good deal.
I must be having a case of the blogging yips, b/c you are exactly right.
Orlando Cabrera is consistently about a win better than Greene, and he signed recently for $4 million. It’s hard to pinpoint what a free agent win costs this offseason, and I’m sure Cabrera was asking for considerably more back when the trade was made, but this definitely deserves a mention when evaluating the trade.
No matter how you figure it out it seems like it was a good trade for the Cardinals based on Greene’s performance this Spring. The math will all work out one way or the other at the end of the season and the Cardinals will have a choice, try to sign him or let him go to free agency. I am glad the Cardinals got him and believe he is an upgrade over last year’s shortstop.
Thanks guys for pointing out the gaffe. I rewrote the post, b/c I’m the Godfather.
And Godfathers rock.
What’s you guys’ take on Garcia’s release? He was hitting well, but apparently his defense was pretty horrid. I just thought it was odd considering that second base isn’t exactly a strongpoint for the system.
You’re going to be happy with Green, but he’ll frustrate you at times. He can’t hit anything that breaks. But he’s a potential gold-glover, and he has a lot of power, and if the Padres hadn’t fallen into a sell mode, my guess is that they would have hung onto Green. He’s exciting at times and the Padres will miss him.
I was disappointed in the trade for Worrell, his delivery is beyond flawed and it’s no surprise to me that he’s now undergone Tommy John surgery (no pitcher should ever face first basse after their delivery). But as a Padres fan, I’m delighted by Gregerson’s upside (one of the few “to be named later” players I can actually say that about). Anyone with a strikeout to walk ratio of near 4:1 in the minors has total potential. I look forward to seeing this guy in the bigs within a couple of years.