FR Top 20 – Great Expectations
Posted on March 30th, 2009 by azruavatar in Adam Ottavino, Fernando Salas, Lance Lynn, Tyler Henley, Tyler HerronLike mother hens clucking over a prized clutch, we only want the best for the top Cardinal prospects. We’ve seen what happens when things don’t work out as well. Starting with prospects 16 through 20, I’ll cover the highs and lows of what you might see this year.
16. Tyler Henley
See you in: Springfield
Journey Theme Song: Remember Me
Best Case 2009: Henley continues to play centerfield and stays healthy for a full season. 10HRs, double digit SBs and a .300/.350/.450 line with plus defense.
Worst Case 2009: Things fall apart in a hurry as his lack of power leaves him over matched and turns him into a .250 slap hitter. Injuries derail his season midway through.
17. Tyler Herron
See you in: Springfield
Journey Theme Song: Don’t Be Down on Me Baby
Best Case 2009: The pinpoint control from 2007 returns with walk rates under 2 BB/9. The GB% stays steady around average (mid-40%) and the strikeouts hover around 7 K/9.
Worst Case 2009: Undone by his lack of pure stuff, he travels the way of Trey Hearne and fades from the collective Cardinal fan consciousness.
18. Lance Lynn
See you in: Palm Beach
Journey Theme Song: Nothin’ Comes Close
Best Case 2009: Lynn recaptures his velocity from college and the heavy fastball puts hitters on their heels and balls on the ground.
Worst Case 2009: The velocity doesn’t come close to college levels and Lynn is a busted 1st-round pick.
19. Fernando Salas
See you in: Memphis
Journey Theme Song: Never Walk Away
Best Case 2009: Ummm, 2008 again please. Walking under 2 batters per nine and striking out a ridiculous 12 per 9. It’s easy to forget Salas since he doesn’t throw as hard as Perez, Motte, Reifer, Samuel or any of the other fireballers we drool over.
Wost Case 2009: 2007. The gopher-itis gets worse and a return to earth of the strikeout rate makes him fringy middle relief fodder.
20. Adam Ottavino
See you in: Springfield
Journey Theme Song: The Party’s Over
Best Case 2009: Ottavino rebounds with a healthy shoulder and improved command. 140+ innings with an ERA under 4 and a K rate over 8.
Worst Case 2009: The command issues continue to hamper him and his balky shoulder balks once more as he slips off the depth chart and travels the Blake Hawksworth career path.
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I think I might be anticipating who gets what theme song more than the best/worse case scenarios.
I think I know who lays claim to “Don’t Stop Believing.”
Lights should be reserved for whoever gets that still qualifies as a prospect – it’s looking like it’s going to be Perez. He wants to be in that city.
i have seen both ottavino and herron on tv this spring. ottavino was dominating major league hitters with a 95 mph fastball and mid 80′s slider while herron was struggling to hit 86 mph with his fastball. my prediction is that ottavino shoots back up into the top 10 while herron falls off the map and is labeled yet another first round bust.
I was disappointed in what I saw out of Herron, I hope it was a slow gun or just a dead arm b/c a mid 80′s fastball from a RH starter just isnt going to get it done.
Still young though and gotta like his pitchability.