Scouting Report: Adam Ottavino
Posted on April 15th, 2009 by azruavatar in Adam Ottavino, Scouting ReportsI took the time to review the tape from Adam Ottavino’s game on the 10th. There was some disgruntlement of my labeling it a so-so outing based on the boxscore. Talk of the strikezone being small and him only allowing 1 ER meaning I should have been more positive about it. I’m glad I took the time to watch the video.
That said, my assessment from the boxscore hasn’t changed at all. There were 2 or 3 pitches that I thought the ump got wrong (4th pitch to Golson in the 3rd, 6th pitch to Harrison in the 4th) but Ottavino was incredibly lucky in the 2nd. A wild pitch bounced off the backboard right back to Matt Pagnozzi. Max Ramirez, the opposing catcher, isn’t a fast runner and was barely tagged out at the plate. The next hitter, Esteban German, laced a single to the right side that would have scored a run but the baserunner got clipped by the ball for the third out. This could have VERY easily been a 5IP, 3ER event.
I do have a lot of positive things to say from a purely scouting perspective after watching the video. Let’s hit the pitch sequencing (the video started with the 3rd batter in the first inning).
Pitching Report 4/10
Notation: FB – hard fastball, F2 – soft fastball CH – changeup, SL – slider, CS – called strike, SS – swinging strike, BB – ball
1st Inning
- Boggs: 1-FB(BB), 2-FB(CS), 3-SL(CS), 4-SL(CS)
2nd Inning
- Ramirez: 1-FB(CS), 2-SL(CS), 3-SL(foul), 4-F2(hit)
- Harrison: 1-CH(hit)
- Thorman: 1-SL(flyout)
- Duran: 1-FB(CS), 2-FB(wild pitch, BB), 3-CH(hit)
- German: 1-FB(CS), 2-FB(hits the runner going from first to second)
3rd Inning
- Golson: 1-FB(CS), 2-FB(BB), 3-FB(foul), 4-F2(ball)
- Borbon: 1-FB(flyout)
- Arias: 1-FB(CS), 2-SL(foul), 3-SL(foul, Pagnozzi to Stavinoha)
4th Inning:
- Boggs: 1-FB(BB), 2-SL(bunt, out)
- Ramirez: 1-F2(BB), 2-F2(CS), 3-FB(BB), 4-FB(BB), 5-FB(hit)
- Harrison: 1-SL(SS), 2-FB(BB), 3-SL(BB), 4-FB(BB), 5-FB(SS), 6-SL(BB)
- Thorman: 1-FB(SS), 2-FB(foul), 3-FB(SS)
- Duran: 1-SL(foul), 2-FB(foul), 3-FB(foul), 4-FB(BB), 5-FB(BB), 5-SL(flyout)
5th Inning:
- German: 1-FB(foul), 2-FB(SS), 3-SL(BB), 4-FB(BB), 5-FB(flyout)
- Golson: pitch not taped(hit)
- Borbon: 1-FB(BB), 2- pitch not taped(foul), 3-FB(foul), 4-CH(BB), 5-SL(BB), 6-SL(SS)
- Arias: 1-FB(BB), 2-FB(BB), 3-FB(SS), 4-FB(foul tip), 5-pitch not taped
6th inning:
- Boggs: 1-FB(CS), 2-FB(BB), 3-FB(BB), 4-FB(BB), 5-FB(BB)
- Ramirez: 1-SL(CS), 2-FB(BB), 3-FB(BB), 4-FB(SS), 5-FB(foul), 6-FB(foul), 6-SL(flyout)
- Harrison: 1-SL(BB), 2-SL(SS), 3-FB(foul), 4-FB(foul), 5-FB(BB), 6-SL(BB), 7-SL(BB)
Scouting Report
Fastball – 55/60
Slider – 50/60
Changeup – 45/50
“Soft” Fastball – 40/40
Command – 45/50
AOFP: 54, good set-up man/4th starter
ETA: mid-2010
Let’s start with a discussion of the fastball. Without knowing the velocity, I was spotting 2 separate fastballs. A hard straight fastball that Ottavino likes to throw all over the zone but especially high in the zone. There’s also a fastball where he takes something off of it and it has a little break to it. I don’t want to call these 4-seam and 2-seam since I don’t really know but that’s very well what they could be. His primary fastball is a darn good pitch that he can get batters to swing underneath or be late on. Lots of swing strikes on high fastballs and foul balls into the stands on late swings.
The soft fastball is a sloppy pitch that was over the middle of the plate way too often. It’s asking for trouble and it’s nothing more than a show me pitch. This isn’t a viable pitch outside the bottom of the order or as a last resort. It’s a pitch that should probably be scrapped.
If you want to see what Ottavino’s slider can be, watch the 1st pitch to Harrison in the 4th or the 6th pitch to Borbon in the 5th. It’s a strikeout pitch with nice tight vertical break and a litttttttle bit of lateral movement. It’s not a big sweeping slider but the bottom will fall out of the pitch when Adam throws it well. The problem is it’s wildly inconsistent in both location and movement. It’s something that’s good now but he needs to work on repeating his release to make it a good and reliable pitch.
I was surprised to be able to pick out a couple of really good changeups. Again, without velocity readings it can be hard to sight all the changeups but it looks like a viable pitch against lefthanders eventually. It needs to be located off the heart of the plate more but it plays well with fastball.
In the 4th inning, Ottavino’s command abandons him pretty blantantly. He doesn’t know where the fastball is going. He’s missing the catcher’s target and throwing pitches a foot off the plate that Pagnozzi was making backhand stabs at. His command goes from moderate to Wellemeyer in the matter of half an inning. You can see some frustration as he walks off the mound from time to time but he kept plugging away. I’d like to see Ottavino mix his pitches better. It seemed like a particularly poorly called game by Pagnozzi or Ottavino as the sequences were far too predictable. While the percentage of sliders was fine, they were clustered too much and let batters track the second slider more effectively.
Ottavino’s stuff would really play up in the pen from what I saw. He could ditch everything but the fastball/slider and be a setup man by mid-2009. I think the best case scenario as a starter is a 4th starter who just walks too many batters to be more than that. His stuff is better than that (it’s potentially front of the rotation) but I don’t see the command coalescing in a way that lets him consistenty throw 6 innings and retire batters. Left handers could be a problem depending on his level of comfort with the changeup and it’s progression as a pitch.
Summary
Ottavino has impressive, swing-and-miss stuff but lacks command. He needs more polish on his secondary pitches to be an effective starter. His outing on the 10th was touch and go at times but he’s got major league potential.
(Assuming Mitchell Boggs gets Carpenter’s next start, I’ll run a scouting report on him next.)
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i said it after the WBC start, and i will say it again. ottavino can be what wellemeyer is now, and that is actually a pretty darn useful pitcher. especially if you are paying him the minimum. both are 90-94 with the fastball with a good slider that they leave fat too often and a change that can be useful every once in a while, but lack the command to dominate consistently.
Few I wouldn’t disagree with you at all. I think that Ott with Duncan game plan could definitely pitch a season of league average ball for min salary. I wonder though if the wrong pitcher is being made into a reliever. Should Ott have been transferred to the pen over Todd. This could be a size discrimnation thing in that Ott looks like a starter and Todd looks like a utility infielder.
While this is nowhere on par w/ AZ’s thorough assessment above, we saw Ottavino pitch in Memphis April 4 against the Cardinals and he looked really good after Boggs got absolutely pounded. We were in the 1st row right behind home plate and his pitches had nice movement, tight rotation on the off speed offerings, consistently hit his locations, and was popping the mit at 93 (stadium gun). I say all of this with the acknowledgement that the kid walked Oquendo in a bit of Cardinal spoofery, but who wouldn’t be a bit nervous with one of your bosses at the plate. ;) Anyway, this was the second time I’ve seen Ottavino pitch and he completely changed my evaluation of him and, for what it is worth, I believe he can be a middle of the rotation starter. His mechanics seemed much cleaner then I remember and his arm slot wasn’t all over the damn place like we observed early in his minor league efforts. As clearly stated in AZ’s writeup, consistently maintaining a semblance of pitch-to-pitch/game-to-game control will make or break the kid, as he does have the weapons to deploy. Chalk me up in the “hopeful and on board” Ottavino bandwagon, which was far better then where I was 6 months to a year ago where I had pretty much written him off.
In defense of Ottavino, sounds like to me, right now throughout the system pitchers might be throwing 2 seamers, 4 seam cut fastball and sliders and not breaking balls as often.
milb is about practice, you throw what you are told to throw. I understand that the video was reviewed, however, we don’t know what the pitcher needed to practice on, (especially the first outing) whether that becomes a win or loss for the team, my understanding is that is how the system works. You throw what you are told to, whether it’s working that day or not.
Few–”i said it after the WBC start, and i will say it again. ottavino can be what wellemeyer is now”. Perhaps but Col. Welly has a very good circle change he throws for strikes. Otto can only throw strikes with his four seamer. Unless Otto improves his command of secondary pitches substantially, I don’t think he is a major leaguer. He can’t even be counted on as a long reliever unless he throws strikes.
@BJM: “Ott with Duncan game plan” is a phrase that scares me. Is he the kind of pitcher who can be Duncanized? Or is he another Reyes waiting to happen? I don’t know enough about him to have an informed opinion, but the mere existence of A-Rey out there worries me when the notion of Dunc “fixing” young pitchers comes up.
I just got Milb.tv and I’m watching a few of Ottativo’s games, he’s a very interesting prospect, he definately has MLB stuff. His lack of command seems to stem from not having his mechanics down pat. Once he does I think his command will improve.
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