Comments on: The moment of truth: Walters in Pitchf/x

By: cards13

cards13 — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 17:03:07 +0000

I agree Erik. Seems that after the way PJ settled in he earned another shot.

By: Harry Pavlidis

Harry Pavlidis — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 17:28:39 +0000

Change-ups came on these counts (B-S changes/pitches)

3-2 3/8
1-1 4/11
2-1 2/6
1-2 2/9
1-0 1/5
0-1 2/14

I should also note – 14 0-1 counts and just 5 1-0. Wow.

No change-ups on 0-0,0-2,2-0,2-2,3-0 (45 total pitches on those counts)

By: erik

erik — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 22:59:01 +0000

too bad it sounds like he is not going to get another start.

By: Shhh

Shhh — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 21:50:31 +0000

Nothing to do with pitchf/x but out of the 160 starters this season, PJ ranks 4th in SwStr% only behind F. Paulino, R. Harden, and J. Santana. Of course small sample, but still pretty impressive.

By: cdb

cdb — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 19:04:38 +0000

Harry, so it sounds like the changeup could, in theory, be most valuable as a strikeout pitch. In situations where he is ahead in the count and the hitter has to expand his zone a bit to protect, there is a good chance of swing and miss outcome. Does this seem reasonable?

Also, I realize we have limited data, but can you summarize at what point in the count he went to the change up? How about how variable the movement was on the various pitches? There is just so much info in this data – glad that fans such as yourself have taken the time to mine it for the rest of us. Boo cubs (sorry – couldn’t resist….). Thanks for the article.

By: Harry Pavlidis

Harry Pavlidis — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 16:47:54 +0000

@cdb, it sure as heck looked like it during his start, but the hitters will let us know the answer to that over time. I suspect, with all the scouting and video teams do, it will be noticed in short order.

Given that (a) there’s a release point change and (b) the pitch tends to miss the zone, it can have all the movement in the world, it won’t matter if hitters learn to recognize it an lay off it.

By: cdb

cdb — Mon, 20 Apr 2009 15:30:52 +0000

is there enough motion on the change to compensate for the altered release point? That is, is it too hittable a pitch that if the hitter can pick up on the altered release point that they will be more likely to hit it? Is the motion on it predictable?

By: tom s.

tom s. — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 23:03:21 +0000

I’m very excited. I hope pj does well.

By: burt

burt — Sun, 19 Apr 2009 20:30:33 +0000

This is great stuff. Thanks Erik and Harry for the effort and expertise.

One start is just one start, but I feel like I owe PJ an apology.