Cardinal pitching in the mold of the Athletics?
Posted on April 23rd, 2009 by azruavatar in editorialEntering this year the Oakland starters had a total of 64 career starts to their name:
Dallas Braden: 24
Dana Eveland: 36
Trevor Cahill: 0
Brett Anderson: 0
Josh Outman: 4
I don’t think you’ll see a Cardinal rotation with that little experience in St. Louis anytime soon and you certainly won’t see that on a Tony LaRussa team. But there’s another aspect of these players that I think the Cardinals may take after.
Let’s look at the player’s CHONE projections:
Dallas Braden: 4.15
Dana Eveland: 4.17
Trevor Cahill: 4.82
Brett Anderson: 4.71
Josh Outman: 4.70
That’s about 2 pitchers who are slightly better than average and a back end that’s slightly worse than average. Now, Cahill and Anderson project in the long run as better than what they’re performing now but right now you’re looking at a motley collection of average pitching talent.
There’s been consistent criticism of the lack of blue chip pitching prospects in the Cardinals’ farm system. The cacophony reached it’s peak during the 2007 draft and the selection of Pete Kozma. While the Cardinals have shied from potentially top end pitchers in their draft, they have been consistent in their drafting and development of mid-level pitchers. The Cardinals have a plethora of pitchers that project in the 4.00-5.00 ERA range in the very near term:
PJ Walters: 4.61
Jess Todd: 4.50
Blake Hawksworth: 4.79
Mitchell Boggs: 4.99
I think that any projections for these prospects as more tha middle of the rotation pitchers is overly optimistic. Compare it to a couple of rotation stalwarts that the Cardinals are currently employing and you’ll begin to see where I’m headed with this.
Todd Wellemeyer: 4.31
Joel Pineiro: 4.74
The Cardinals have the opportunity to stop spending tons of money on thoroughly replaceable pitchers. The difference between PJ Walters and Tod Wellemeyer over the course of 200 innings is 7 runs. The Athletics boost their pitching staff by employing superb defenders such as Mark Ellis. It’s not just the leveraging of defense but a recognition that a top to bottom average staff can provide as much value as a top heavy staff with a weak back end.
Turning a pair of Mortensen, Walters, Boggs and Ottavino into major league starters should be a foremost goal for the coaching staff this year. They’ve struggled to convert Chris Perez and Jason Motte directly into major league relievers but there are going to be an increasing number of opportunities coming up. It’s up to the coaches as well as the players to ease the transition and build a competitive and younger team.
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Great concept. Automatically you think that saving money on your #4 and #5 starters allows you to spend freely on the FA market for an elite starter. However, with Wainwright and Carpenter ($$$) to go along with the financial instability the region is seeing it may simply be case of reducing payroll and not losing talent levels.
Can PJ Walters actually give 200 innings? I think that’s what’s missing from this analysis. Durability is important, too.
Can Trevor Cahill or Brett Anderson? Can Josh Outman? It’s a risk assessment but the Cardinals seem to have a small bumper crop of backend starters in case of emergency.
I have no idea, but I’m pretty sure Todd Wellemeyer and Joel Pineiro both can.
I think the Oakland premise above is exactly what the Cardinals had in 2004-6. Woody Williams, Jason Marquis, and Jeff Suppan were all basically mediocre groundball pitchers with superb defenses behind them. But things haven’t changed that much. There are still two designated locations on the field for crappy fielders: 2B and left. Perhaps center, right and third aren’t what they were back then, but the defensive emphasis is still there. The staff is still mediocre except for the top two.
Sounds like Kyle Lohse may have torn something in his knee. We may be finding out who can sink and who can swim faster than we thought.
When was the last time that the MRI has been negative, with a St. Louis Cardinals pitcher?
Puppy Kicker to the rescue!
Don’t say that. Not even joking.
There is no doubt that Walters can throw 200+ innings, just look back to when he was in college throwing 150 innings in half as many games. The guy just competes.
David–
The challenge is whether he will be allowed to throw that many. I’m sure he could have thrown another inning last week. The question is whether, if four innings is what he gives, if that’s something the big club can use from a starter.
RedC,
Very true statement. In the college ranks a coach isn’t goin to be too concerned with pitch counts, days rest, etc. However, with Duncan and Tony he’s an investment that will be monitored.