If you haven’t seen the four part Prospect Evaluation primer over at South Side Sox, you are missing out. I think it quantifies very well what a lot of us amateur scouting directors look for in the stats of prospects.
I’ll attempt to highlight each part here, but you should really read it all, because it is just great stuff.
Part 1 – Age and Park Factors matter.
Part 2 – K/BB and doubles are predictive of success hitters.
Part 3 – K/BB and GB% are predictive of success for pitchers.
Part 4 – Prospects need to show improvement.
A thousand pardons if you have seen these before, but they are really seminal works when it comes to the armchair scouting that we all do.
On to the DFR!
The FR community lets out a communal sigh as the organization goes 0-fer today.
Memphis 2, Iowa 6
This game will be covered by bgh again today. Thanks bgh!
- Brandon Dickson was not terrible, but he did allow 4 hits and 4 walks in his 4 innings of work, allowing 3 runs, 1 earned. He allowed 1 HR and got 3 outs via the flyball vs. 4 outs via the groundball.
- Joe Williams got his second AA appearance and for the second time in a row gave up 2 runs in 1 inning of work. For those of you that don’t know, he is a Dr. Mike Marshall disciple and you can get a look at his non-traditional throwing motion here. This motion is supposed to limit injuries, but some detractors also say it limits velocity. I have a minor obsession with Williams and his revolutionary throwing motion and not just because he looks good with his shirt off. He walked 2 and hit a man, but did strike out 1 today.
- Kyle Mura and Marco Gonzalez both gave up 1 run in 1 inning each.
- Eddie Degerman had a perfect eighth.
- Brett Wallace, 3B was the man of the hour with the hitters as he went 3-4.
- Mark Hamilton, DH was 0-2 but did have 2 walks.
- Tony Cruz, C had the only RBI of the game and didn’t allow any SBs and threw one guy out trying to steal.
- The S-birds had 8 hits, all singles.
- Richard Castillo didn’t pitch terribly. He gave up 4 hits and 2 walks in 4 innings and hit a guy. Bad. He struck out 6. Good. His ERA line was saved by ….
- Blake King pitched great. He came in with 2 runners on and no outs. He didn’t allow a hit over his 3 innings and struck out 4 to 1 walk.
- Chuckie Fick pitched 2 perfect innings, striking out 1.
- The Redbirds left their RISP bats at home as they were 0-7 with RISP and left 9 on base total.
- 8 players had 1 hit each. Of those guys…
- Domnit Bolivar had a double.
- Thomas Pham had a stolen base.
- Shane Peterson and Jermaine Curtis each had an error.
Quad Cities was off today.
Entries (RSS)
Mike Marshall is a quack. The stuff is interesting on a sorta academic level, in that it should reduce injuries, but no one is going to succed because his mechanical recomendations contribute to an overall lack of stuff. A pitchers velocity and stuff are very closely related. This is due to arm action and hand break.
I think it’s interesting that the Cardinals would sign one of his guys b/c it shows they are willing to think outside of the box, but I think you are right, he is quackish. Just because something worked for him doesn’t mean he can carbon copy himself into everyone else. And not one of his students has been successful that I’m aware of.
Maybe parts of his theories are right.
Calling him a quack is harsh. I agree that his approach probably costs velocity (and also control) so there is little chance that his approach will succeed in a pro organization, but there is little doubt in my mind that his ideas are well-researched and will contribute to much more durable arms if nothing else. And that’s his main claim.
I also worry that people are too quick to pass judgment on the small group of pitchers who happen to work with him. I would love to see a mid-tier NCAA team shake things up and completely buy into Marshall’s system, just to see what happens to a group of pitchers at a decent level of competition.
My whole thought on Marshall is why have a Ferrari of an arm if you are only going to drive 55 to save the suspension and tires…Major League Baseball is the Autobahn, you are going to see cars demolished on the side of the road.
I think most of his disciples have come to his program because they have broken down and that is absolutely fine–it is a last ditch effort to save a career, go for it. But a couple points–I like natural mechanics, kids do not pick up a ball and throw like Marshall teaches. The natural mechanices that people start with and bring to his program will have already influenced the way that an arm is structured. A shoulder of an athelete from overhand throwing sport develops considerably different than if they would have never thrown a ball. In a way it is much less stable. Second point is that his mechanics make it impossilbe to put your arm in a position to max velocity (less scap loading, less hip shoulder separation) or max movement (less hand break, earlier hand break). Try to survive in pro-ball with less movement and less velocity.
Maybe calling him a quack is harsh, but it is an academic exercise. Instead of looking for mechanics that maximize velocity and movement of the ball He is looking for mechanics that minimize the injury chances of a pitcher. It is a noble cause, and this might be a step toward developing mechnics that can accoplish both goals. I doubt it, but maybe.
Read this thing:
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=jp-marshall051007
Perhaps he’s not a quack. But it sounds like his theory is mostly optimism and confirmation bias.
He claims his pitching motion could end injuries to pitchers forever…pretty bold. And regarding the loss in velocity and stuff:
“In March, Sparks went to the Detroit Tigers tryout camp for the sixth consecutive year. The scout’s radar gun had him at 83 mph. He’s certain it was slow and thinks he can top out in the high 80s.
‘I don’t know why they don’t sign me,’ Sparks said. ‘Maybe it is a conspiracy against Mike.’
Marshall nodded.”
So the reason his pitchers only throw in the low 80s is because of conspiracy? That sounds kinda quackish to me.
I know baseball insiders can be a close-minded bunch. Any fan of sabermetrics over the last twenty years could tell you that. But in this case, the results of his methods simply aren’t there.
He claims he’s never had a pitcher graduate his program and get injured; could be true. But he’s also never had a pitcher graduate his program and be effective in the majors. Maybe not a quack, but his claims are certainly not backed up by the results.
not sure if it rises above statistical blip-dom, but the walrus’s lines are starting to make me think he’s getting used to pitchers picking around the corners. i feel like i’m seeing a lot fewer 3K nights from him. he had that one monster day in early april, and all of AA pitching got the “do not throw him a strike” memo. seemed like he struggled for a month, swinging at out of the zone stuff. maybe he’s just had a couple of good days, but it seems like he may be learning to cope with people pitching to him carefully.
On Marshall, it is difficult to say whether a great pitcher can find success in the majors using his mechanics. From the stories I have seen, most of his people, if not all, would never have enjoyed success with a “normal” throwing motion. Are they unsuccessful because of the throwing motion or are they unsuccessful because they didn’t have the natural ability required to succeed. And if MLB and the top level talent refure to give it a try then will we ever find out if it is possible to have good stuff and pitch in a manner less injurious to the shoulder.