Player A 2008: 514 PAs, .270/.311/.400, 108Ks, 9HRs, .313 wOBA
Player A 2009 (over roughly a full season): 670PAs (600ABs), .358/.418/.625, 125Ks, 30HRs, .444 wOBA
Player B 2008: 452 PAs, .254/.313/.453, 110Ks, 21HRs, .328 wOBA
Player B 2009 (over roughly a full season): 625 PAs (560 ABs), .250/.328/.545, 110Ks, 50 HRs, .375 wOBA
Player C 2009 (over roughly a full season): 596 PAs (516 ABs), .256/.337/.349, 120Ks, 6 HRs, .316 wOBA
Player A is Adam Jones. Player B is Jay Bruce. Player C is Colby Rasmus.
Jones isn’t going to put up a .444 wOBA this year — nobody beside El Hombre and A-Rod is in that rarified offensive air on anything like a regular basis. Jones is a good player though that displays a very similar skillset to Rasmus. There’s a little more power than Rasmus but not as many walks. He was a +10 fielder in CF last year although he looks terrible in this year’s small sample size.
Bruce was, in my opinion, way overhyped as a prospect. He’s got a lot of power but his fielding isn’t more than slightly above average at a corner outfield position and I’m not sure he’s going to develop the kind of plate discipline of Rasmus either. But again, he’s an excellent young outfielder that serves as a nice comparison for our own excellent young outfielder.
I’d love to see Rasmus’s power develop a little quicker this season. He looks to me like he’s taking ALOT of pitches to try and get accustomed to new pitchers. He swings at just 20% of pitches outside the zone (average is 24% (Bruce – 26%, Jones 30%) but makes slightly below average contact on those pitches. He also swings at more pitches in the zone than the MLB average. So at the very least we can say he’s swinging at the appropriate pitches. The power will likely come with time. The swing he put on his HR this season was a thing of beauty. He’s capable of going on a tear and smacking 8 HRs in a month but that shouldn’t be our expectation this year.
The numbers above should show that even if his power doesn’t develop at all, it’s nothing to worry about for his first year. Jones had an ISO around .130 and Bruce was around .100 for their first full time year. On top of that, Rasmus is a better defender than either Jones or Bruce. He’s a +15 type defender at CF and maybe even better than that. Just holding par offensively will make him a league average player given enough time in CF. He’s not a prospect anymore but he’s still developing as a player. The potential exists for a major breakout of talent given his tools. His peers did it and Colby likely will as well.
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I heart Daryl Jones.
The day the dude gets called up, I’m ordering a jersey. Let’s hope he gets a real number and doesn’t screw me for the rest of his career.
aw, just think of it like the misprinted stamps with the upside down plane. it’s rare and therefore special.
Good stuff AZ…had Bruce pegged, but bricked on the others…although ironically Kozma popped into my head when looking at Colby’s slash numbers. I see Bruce developing into a Berkman-type offensive threat in the long run…Cincy’s own Phatttt Elvis.
Interesting and I think I see good power developing with Rasmus. We have already seen several balls hit to the wall for outs or doubles. It won’t take much for those to become homers. And the average will come up as well. That plate discipline is solid. I think he is a real deal major league player. I hadn’t watched him play and was struck by his size. He is bigger than I expected based on his position and speed.
Razzle’s got amazing bat speed but he seems like he is all arms right now. No hip rotation, no driving with the legs. He’s using his ability to get his hands through the zone as his only source of power.
I think it is because they told him to increase his contact, so he’s simply trying to get the bat on the ball. A simple pre-swing rotation of the hips would give him an amazing amount more lift on his hits.
HL, I dunno if it has anything to do with this, but the guy is hitting (more often than not) in the same inning as Pujols. The mantra for anyone hitting in front of that guy should be pretty simple. GET ON BASE. Albert will take care of the rest. Maybe Colby is trying to just make sure he gets on base more often, thus sacrificing a bit of power.
Eckstream–
I think that’s right. In fact, it’s exactly what Tony told him to do during spring training. He’s trying to get on base and hit doubles and singles. Tony and Hal specifically told him to lower the tilt in his swing during ST to try to get more line drives and fewer pop flies. I think once the bridle is taken off and Rasmus is allowed to swing freely, his natural power will show itself.