Player A 2008: 514 PAs, .270/.311/.400, 108Ks, 9HRs, .313 wOBA
Player A 2009 (over roughly a full season): 670PAs (600ABs), .358/.418/.625, 125Ks, 30HRs, .444 wOBA
Player B 2008: 452 PAs, .254/.313/.453, 110Ks, 21HRs, .328 wOBA
Player B 2009 (over roughly a full season): 625 PAs (560 ABs), .250/.328/.545, 110Ks, 50 HRs, .375 wOBA
Player C 2009 (over roughly a full season): 596 PAs (516 ABs), .256/.337/.349, 120Ks, 6 HRs, .316 wOBA
Jones isn’t going to put up a .444 wOBA this year — nobody beside El Hombre and A-Rod is in that rarified offensive air on anything like a regular basis. Jones is a good player though that displays a very similar skillset to Rasmus. There’s a little more power than Rasmus but not as many walks. He was a +10 fielder in CF last year although he looks terrible in this year’s small sample size.
Bruce was, in my opinion, way overhyped as a prospect. He’s got a lot of power but his fielding isn’t more than slightly above average at a corner outfield position and I’m not sure he’s going to develop the kind of plate discipline of Rasmus either. But again, he’s an excellent young outfielder that serves as a nice comparison for our own excellent young outfielder.
I’d love to see Rasmus’s power develop a little quicker this season. He looks to me like he’s taking ALOT of pitches to try and get accustomed to new pitchers. He swings at just 20% of pitches outside the zone (average is 24% (Bruce – 26%, Jones 30%) but makes slightly below average contact on those pitches. He also swings at more pitches in the zone than the MLB average. So at the very least we can say he’s swinging at the appropriate pitches. The power will likely come with time. The swing he put on his HR this season was a thing of beauty. He’s capable of going on a tear and smacking 8 HRs in a month but that shouldn’t be our expectation this year.
The numbers above should show that even if his power doesn’t develop at all, it’s nothing to worry about for his first year. Jones had an ISO around .130 and Bruce was around .100 for their first full time year. On top of that, Rasmus is a better defender than either Jones or Bruce. He’s a +15 type defender at CF and maybe even better than that. Just holding par offensively will make him a league average player given enough time in CF. He’s not a prospect anymore but he’s still developing as a player. The potential exists for a major breakout of talent given his tools. His peers did it and Colby likely will as well.