Quick, take a look at the top 20 list and tell me how many prospects you think are having a standout year?
The outfielders in the system, which featured so prominently as a strength, have been a massive disappointment as a whole. Colby Rasmus has held his own but has yet to excel offensively (though defensively he’s been one of the few bright spots for the STL Cardinals). Allen Craig’s bat isn’t propelling him to the bigs right now. Jon Jay’s hitting has taken a dive. Tyler Henley’s power has disappeared. Only Daryl Jones is having a truly good year so far.
3rd base, another strength coming into the season, has seen Brett Wallace lose a little swagger and David Freese go ice cold*. With Allen Craig deemed an unacceptable defender at 3rd, things have been dismal for the hot corner in the minors.
Chris Perez and Jason Motte haven’t solidified themselves as high leverage relievers. Perez still struggles with command and Motte’s strikeout rate has dipped to concerning levels relative to his recent performances. Mitchell Boggs is getting jostled in the big league rotation flashing good and bad outings with varying levels of command. Jaime Garcia is injured. Fernando Salas just returned from the DL. Clayton Mortensen has been solid at AAA but hasn’t shown much beyond slightly above average skills. Tyler Herron has decent results but nothing to inspire confidence that he can move up a level this year. Adam Ottavino looked great prior to the minor league season starting. Of the pitching, only Jess Todd and Lance Lynn stand out as having good seasons thus far.
Bryan Anderson seems to be an afterthought in the farm. Pete Kozma forgot how to field only to be rushed up a level where he’s forgotten how to hit. Niko Vasquez, while making for some entertaining quotes, remains tepid offensively.
Of the top 20 list, I’d only label Jones as off to a great start with Mortensen and Todd off to good starts. Daniel Descalso has forced himself into toe conversation of top prospects with a tremendous start to his year. Otherwise, it’s been a pretty dismal beginning for 2009. Obviously, there’s plenty of time for certain players to get going and make a splash but it’s been a down year thus far in my opinion. Even though some of the minor league teams are winning, it’s a collective effort – that’s great for the team, not so good for the Cardinals’ prospects.
For the afternoon’s exercise, pick one prospect you expect to have a down year based on their performance so far and one you expect to turn it around (or continue) and have a great year.
* Couldn’t help myself.
Entries (RSS)
Wallace will turn it around. Kozma isn’t ready.
First blush look, without verifying stats:
Rasmus, Wallace, Perez, Anderson, DJ, Motte, Todd, Boggs, Mort, Lynn
The rest are either doing decent, injured or below expectations.
Since I made that list “quick” before allowing your post to sway my opinions I want to offer up some reasons now.
Rasmus is a known slow starter and 2009 is not as slow as I expected, therefore I label that as a success, especially given his defense.
Wallace has cooled off alot more than I had realized and while Anderson’s average is down his power is up so far which is a good thing.
Perez and Motte are doing the good and while they are struggling some I wasn’t expecting lights out closer from them to start the season.
DJ, Todd, Mort and Lynn are all doing what was expected for me. And Boggs right now has the lowest ERA of a starter in 4 starts versus 7. 3.50 ERA for him may be too low though considering his WHIP is not good, but his FIP is still 3.65.
Don’t want to say that someone will have a down year, so I’ll cheat and pick Garcia off the Top 20 list.
Freese will certainly turn it around in a big way. (Kozma will settle in, but won’t see the kind of dramatic statistical improvement that you can expect from Freese.)
Would help if I read the last paragraph…but your first one confused me! :)
Anyway, down year (outside of Garcia) I would go with Niko since the bar was set so high for him last year and this year I see him becoming the next Hoffpauir of the system, or Martinez, or name any other MIF we have been excited about recently.
Turn around I’ll go with Kozma, I think the errors are going to go down and his bat will heat up some, but not to outstanding levels.
The fact that Rasmus has tightened his grip on an ML roster spot and Tony is willing to play him on an everyday basis are huge IMHO. Tony is a prickly fellow and the organization absolutely needed to get his talent onto the major league roster. For me, that was huge. The next best OF prospect is DJ and he is holding up his end of the bargain at AA. The rest of the OFers in the system are pretty much gravy. If any of them blossom, great. If not, we have what we need. The one outfielder who I personally counted on who has hugely disappointed is Joe Mather. We need a big righthanded bat in the outfield. I’m going to chalk it up to injury and hope (pray) that he turns in around once his wrist heals.
As far as the pitchers go, we really have a large collection of fringe prospects outside of Motte, Perez, Boggs, Garcia, Todd, Mort, and Lynn. I hoped for more from Motte but should we really be surprised that converted catcher has strugged in the bigs? Garcia showed the same occasional control issues in the minors but his offspeeed stuff has gotten better. Motte actually throws a legit offspeed pitch. They are both works in progress but I like where it is going. Did any of us think PJ Walters would go to the bigs and be successful as a starter? I wonder whether he can succeed at AAA. We’ll see.
Hugo, how are you replying? I have seen the mods reply before but the reply function isn’t visible to me????
as soon as you post you should see a link to reply, but once you refresh you can’t see it anymore. I have only been able to reply to my own posts immediately after posting it.
I expect Jamie Garcia and Mike Parasi will have big years? Didn’t both of them have tommy john surgery? I don’t think either will be pitching this season. Thats too bad, because I liked Garcia and Parasi both last year.
Tyler Henley is interesting because his power outage has coincided with an increase in walks, a decrease in strikeouts and a increase in ground balls.
I’m not sure what to make of it, but I think I’d rather have his power potential than his patience.
Just noticed the voting is gone, so I go a +1 on Hugo (#4).
Well I’m glad someone in the know finally said it. The performances of most of the top twenty have have ranged from mildly disappointing to excruciatingly so. The rookies on the big club have not lit it up and most of them are older role type guys anyway. Some of the prospects, Anderson, Freese, Mather et. al. are struggling at levels they excelled at previously. We are starting to look like a system rich in right handed relievers (who are worth zip in the trade market unless they’re can’t miss) and little else.
As far as today’s exercise I can’t believe that Jay won’t turn it around at some point. I’m not that high on Kozma but I think he’ll be okay by the end of the year. I hate to say it but I’ve got a suspicion that Motte will end up back in Memphis.
By the way does this make us all “HyP0ventilating prospect geeks?”
Freese will turn around and be a solid piece of the big club. If not we are in trouble becasue I think Glaus is gone for the year or will suck when he does come back. He had a slow start last year before becoming comfortable in AAA.
Niko will be the disappointment but when we look back two years from now we”ll understand it was because he was in his first full season of pro ball out of high school.
I think your being a little rough on Perez and Motte. Take away the first week of the season for Motte and the hanging slider to Soriano for Perez and they’ve pitched great. You can’t hold it against them that they aren’t getting exposed to more critical situations because of the manager. One guy goes crazy and almost hits Mr. Met in a NLCS game and every prospect in the system has to be handled like a new born baby ever since.
I think a number of prospects will put up “myeh” years compared with expectations…thinking along the lines of Jay, Freese and even Wallace (granted, those were high expectations). Overall, though, I fear Anderson will plummet the farthest…I’ve had my doubts about him and I suspect this year will flat line him as far as being a considered a hot prospect or above average asset in the organization. Prove me wrong, kid.
The hitter I think is going to turn it on is Craig. He turned it around last year and I think he will do likewise this year. Not sure how TLR will take to him as a usable weapon in the bigs, but his bat will heat up and he will be in play. Pitching-wise, I think Mort may get his chance and make an impression in September, setting the stage for an opening role in 2010. I like him. Prove me right, kid.
Rasmus OPS+ 82
Motte ERA+ 130 (despite giving up 4 runs his first outing – he’s been probably around 200 since then)
Perez ERA + 168
Yet Colby (who should have ahigher bar due to a higher ranking) has held his own while the other 2 haven’t solidified themselves? No bias here!
I think that everyone has a right to expect the best from the prospects in their favorite organization. I also agree the adjectives aren’t really necessary to report results. But I am going to go on them just being opinions and probably poor performance bothers us more than it bothers the organization.
Every players stats are subjective and don’t think it really matters. milb is about practice, for every player, even in AAA and some days are going to be better than others, for everyone.
Every pitcher wants to win, but not everything always works that night. The most important thing is how they handle and overcome their game. Not such a big deal if you give up a one run HR, but how you reacted to the next batter. Did you walk him or did you come back with a strike out. If you had a bad game how was the next? Also, what did you have to work on that night, every pitcher usually has something to work on in particular and only has a game once every 5 days to do it. What about an error, did it extend the inning when it should have been over? How about a WP, harder throwers will have more and lots also depends on how the catcher was doing that night, good target, passed balls, good blocking? Softer tossers using more breaking and off speed stuff is going to do better than a pitcher who has to throw 80% -90%FB. Closers should do better, they usually only have a few pitches in their arsenal and they should be good ones and be effective. Relievers need to be able to stop the damage or keep the team ahead. You can’t compare the work of a stater to that of a reliever or closer. Everyone is different and every level is different. Each side needs to support the other side (offense/defense). I think it’s just a lot more complicated than looking at a game and saying, the pitching sucked that night. Never saw a DFR where the hitting had the adjective “sucked”.
Hits are meaningless as long as they don’t turn into runs, a pitcher has got to let his defense work behind him. If they aren’t working that night, your game suffers. I agree our pitchers walk too many, but I’ll bet there is a reason we aren’t prevy too. Is the pitcher throwing inside and missing or is he playing it safer to the outside corner? Did he hit teh batter cause he’s leaning in or teh pitch got away from him? Is he making the hitter chase it high in the zone or low or is he just missing his spots. Unless one is there, it’s so hard to tell.The the only thing that should piss any fan off is lead off man walks. However, there are some pitchers who will give up a walk before a hit, sets up the DP. So as long as that walk doesn’t come back to haunt you, it can be forgiven.
Sometimes I think that all some want is zeros across the board for pitchers and the SO column loaded. It’s not going to happen for most, especially in an organization where they prefer the defense working hard that night and not just the pitcher. No organization wants a pitcher throwing more than he has to.
Same for hitters, they have issues to work on also, and sometimes, if they are better than anyone else, they just don’t get anything to hit. So their stats look crummy. The batting average takes a dive and all of a sudden he’s not the prospect we thought anymore.
I like looking at the recap, tells a much better story. Even the wind blowing out and in which direction.
The season is still young, I also beleive it’s how you end up, but not how you begin.
BTW, this post actually should be in the latest DFR , but wanted to stay out of the discussion over there. :)
regression. toward. the. mean.
Wallace is a perfect example. There’s no real reason we should be disappointed in a pick from 10 months ago who quickly went to Double-A and has a .400 OBP with 5 HR (and by the way he is handling left-handed pitching, has been ‘clutch’ for Springfield, and is sticking at third base). Only reason his performance so far is seen as a disappointment (or not a “standout” season) is that expectations were far too high based on an outlier performance at the end of 2008.
If it’s a “dismal” beginning for the farm system, it has as much to do with our perception as the players’ actual performance.
Yeah you right AZ ! Your post hit the proverbial nail on the head , driving it flush with three strokes .
I still think Kozma will improve and make it and Ottavino will continue floundering.
I don’t believe Motte has given up a run since since his second game. Why all the bashing? Kozma should be at Palm Beach. While several are off to slow starts, there are also good stories as well such as Descalso. Hawksworth, Mulligan, Peterson, Hill, and Smith. Mark Hamilton seems to be finally putting it together. Ditto Additon. The system is more than someone’s version of the top 20.
Great post Alex. I’m not sure what people expected of some of the guys. I think Motte, Perez, and Colby have all been above average for the major league team. As Colby plays more, he will get better.
I think expectations were a bit unrealistic for Wallace. Heck, he is having a decent year. I’m not too worried yet about Jay or Craig–especially Jay. He has hit everywhere he has been.
I understand the prospects haven’t been great but it’s not as doom and gloom as the original article implied.
I am big fan of doing evaluations during the season on our prospects. The 2 obvious choices for me to say will turn it around and/or keep up the pace is The Walrus and DJ. So instead of looking at the top of the board I am going to look at the prospects at 11-20.
I see Mortensen continue to grow and at least keep up his good season so far. I see him cutting down on his BB’s a touch. But as many project he is no more than a #4 or 5 type starter in the bigs.
I see Vasquez turning it around and flashing his solid bat. I think he is the only legit SS of the future we have in the minors. Kozma just doesn’t do it for me.
Lynn will continue to grow and will end up in AA before its all said and done this year. He will definitely be a Top 10 prospect for 2010.
Craig – I see him getting dealt this year in a package at the deadline. I just don’t see him in the future plans for the Cards but he can hit…and other teams that need players that can hit will be attracted. So I hope he ups his offense so he is more attractive in a trade.
Salas – He is a guy that will continue to impress with his K rate. If he can work on his control a touch he will have an impact in the bully either late this or early next year with the big club.
Jay – He is a guy that is projected at a #3 or #4 type OF in the bigs. If he can turn it around he might be attractive in some trade at the deadline….if not traded he will just be another solid upper level minors OF that can fill in when we need him due to injuries in the future…and maybe be our #4 OF someday.
Todd – Still baffled as to why he is in the bullpen. Even if you don’t think he can be a starter at the next level why not let him prove that he can/can’t be a starter. He was one of our bright spots as an SP in the minors. Still beside myself on this one.
Well thats it…I could go on all day with this stuff but I will spare everyone :)
This is an interesting post…perhaps something that should be followed up on every 2 months or so. Obviously the season is still quite young and there is plenty of time for certain prospects to pick up the pace, or heavens forbid, cool off drastically. I’m not a betting man, but these are my predictions of what the stat lines will look like at the end of the year, barring injury of course.
*note…i’m listing these prospects off the top of my head. feel free to add someone in if I forget them. I ‘m not going to include guys who are currently in the bigs also.
-Wallace: All of you have previously stated it: he’s 10 months removed from the draft. The man is hitting .280 plus with power and over .400 OBP. How can anyone consider that any type of a disappointment?? Not saying that anyone is, but my point is that he’s barely out of college ball and doing just fine in AA. He’s my choice of the prospect who will put up the best line when the season’s done; almost a no-brainer. ending line…..BA .300+ 20+HR’s plenty of RBI’s (85ish?) and a wicked OBP
-Todd: I’m probably one of the few guys who is actually ok with him in the pen. His stuff plays up there and he’ll be in the bigs before September call-ups. You can think I’m nuts also, but I think he might have a better chance of being a closer than Perez or Motte based on the fact that he’s got better command of 3 above-average pitches….you don’t have to throw 99 to be closer. ending line….20+ SV’s ERA hovering around 2.00 averaging a K+ per 9 IP before he gets the call
-Anderson: I don’t have much to say on him other than I’m not a major believer in him. I think he’ll carve out a career in the bigs, perhaps at least as a platoon catcher and hopefully a solid starter. But I’m just not sold on him; I keep thinking George Kottaras-type. ending line….BA .275 5-8 HR’s 40-55 RBI’s
-Mortenson: He’s better than a AAAA pitcher, but no better than a 4-5 major league starter. He’ll have good #’s when the season is done, but not overly excited about his long term potential. ending line…..10-13 Wins ERA 3.75ish 6 K’s per 9 IP
-Jones: Got all the tools to succeed and his #’s are impressive so far. Power #’s are a little low especially considering Springfield is considered a good hitter’s park, but may be nit-picking a bit. Outside of Wallace, he’s the ONLY guy in the system that excites me. However, I’m still concerned he may hit a cold spell. I hope like hades he doesn’t, but I’m just not 100% sold………yet. ending line BA .290 10-13 HR’s 25+ SB’s…..all-in-all good numbers but he won’t be ready until at the earliest the end of ’10…..but I sure hope he proves more wrong
-Freese: Not sold at all. Sorry, I like the local guys, but he’s 26 I believe and I realize he was hurt for much of spring training and didn’t get much time in the bigs, but they were knocking the bat out of his hands. He’s the epitomy of a AAAA guy to me. He’ll have decent/solid #’s at the end of year, but it WILL NEVER translate to the bigs. Mark my words. ending line….BA .280 20 HR’s decent RBI’s (75ish)
-Kozma: I know it gets beaten to death, but i still can’t believe we took him over Porcello…or even someone like M. Main. His upside is limited, he’s an Adam Everitt clone with not as good a glove. Best case scenario is he slides over to second, provides limited offense with slighty above-average defense. ending line…. BA .260 4-6 HR’s limited run production 13-20 SB’s
-Jay: He’ll turn it around eventually, but he’s a fourth OF’er or a second-tier team’s third OF’er. ending line….BA .275-285 (due to terrible start) 10-12 HR’s 10-15 SB’s
-Reifer: Is he healthy? Outside of Todd, he’s our best relief prospect. He’ll catch fire, barring injury. ending line….20+SV’s ERA 2.85 9+K’s per 9 IP
-Lynn: A fast mover, indeed. Limited upside though, IMO. Similar, in upside to Mortenson, albeit maybe a safer bet to be that #4 starter. ending line…11-14 Wins 3.00 ERA 6.5-7.5 K’s per 9 IP
-Niko: He may not put up great #’s this year, probably just mediocre #’s. But he’s still very young and his upside is still quite good. Might require a level-at-a-time movement, but I still like his bat. ending line…BA .270ish 7-10 HR’s
-S. Hill: He’s ready for AAA, great #’s in AA albeit he is 24. I think he’ll level off a bit in AAA, but not to the point were you can write him off. Just don’t know where his future lies because of his defense. I can see him as a Chris Shelton-type with the ability to stick in the bigs and get AB’s somewhere. Don’t know if that’ll be here though….ending line….BA .290 22-28 HR’s solid run production (90ish) RBI’s
Guys who are and will continue to climb up the ladder:
-Sam Freeman, LHP
-Daniel Descalo, IF
-Casey Mulligan, RHP (can’t deny those K’s)
And, hopefully Ottavino. He’s the biggest enigma in the system. He’ll keep getting a shot for years. Doesn’t mean he’ll ever make it, but the system won’t give up on him.
Whoosh!!! I’m beat