Anonymous observations from Jacob Turner’s last start
Posted by erik in 2009 MLB Draft, tags: jacob turnerAn emailer who wishes to remain anonymous sent me these amateur scouting observations on Jacob Turner’s last start. In case you’ve been living in a cave recently, Turner is viewed as a top ten draft prospect and looks to be the next great pitching prospect to come out of the St. Louis area. He pitches for Westminster Christian Academy. Enjoy.
Fastball - His velocity seems higher than the previously advertised 90-94 range. I didn’t have a radar gun, but one of the kids in the stands took it upon herself to relay every reading from the assortment of 15-20 scouts’ guns. It seems from this game and his comments in the P-D article that his range is now in the 93-98 range. One strikeout read 95-94-95. The highest number of the day I heard was 97 and the lowest 94. The P-D write up says that he closed the game with a 94 mph fastball. Depending on the guns, I’d think it safe to say he sits in the mid-90s and touches the high 90s rather than the 90-92 range suggested in his early coverage. It was hard to tell from my angle if there was any substantial movement on the pitch. I do know that it took until the 4th or 5th inning for any real contact to occur, even foul tips. I saw three grounders- two dribblers back to Turner (which he handled with athletic ease) and one chopper to 3rd. The one hit I saw was a one hopper in the 1B/2B gap from a RHB. This groundball contact would lead me to believe he either keeps the ball down in the zone or it has decent sinking action.
Secondary pitches – His curveball was 76-78. It has a sharp downward movement that made everyone look foolish. It appeared to start at a RHB’s hands and end at the low and outside reaches of the strike zone. I imagine it wouldn’t be difficult to make high school hitters buckle with a good breaking ball, but the pitch was rarely called a ball even when it froze hitters. He seemed to struggle in one inning to throw it for strikes. The misses appeared to be mostly low and away RHB or inside to LHB. That’s when the opposition finally made contact on the fastball (the aforementioned grounders and foul tips). That was the only inning he appeared to labor, and still no runner advanced past 1B.
I heard he had a solid changeup, but I did not notice it if he threw it.
His frame - at 6’4″ 210lbs it doesn’t seem like he would have much room to grow, but I would disagree with that. He does not look like he’s filled out his frame. He’s not gangly, but you can tell he’s young. I hope that makes sense. If he’s already throwing 93-98 he may not need to, but I’d say he could easily add 20 lbs, particularly in the legs.
His delivery – His delivery starts slow and methodical; deliberate may be the best word to describe his overall movements. His body moves seemingly far too slow to produce a 97 mph fastball. While he moved slow in his windup, you could tell that he accelerated through the pitch. (I was reminded of Dan Haren’s tempo in that he has a slow start and a fast finish— a delivery with two distinct speeds.) The ball definitely explodes from his hand. He seemed to repeat the same motion over and over without effort–the same in the 1st inning as the 7th. By “without effort” I mean that he neither appeared tired at the end of the game nor did he take additional time in between pitches to repeat the same motion. In all, I’m not sure “free and easy” would be the words I’d use (mostly because of his two-toned tempo), but it did not look max effort or rigid either.
The coaching staff- I hadn’t seen it mentioned on your site that the school’s pitching coach is Todd Worrell (the former Cardinal closer). If nothing else, having an MLB closer has to help his mental acuity for the game. Andy Benes is also frequently around the club (his son recently graduated from Westminster and Mr. Benes was in attendance at the game). Along with Worrell and Benes, Mike Matheny’s son Tate is also on the team. Worrell, Benes and Matheny seems to be an huge wealth of experience for the team to tap regarding all things pitching. I do not know the extent to which it’s utilized.
I mention the coaching staff primarily because of the Cardinals’ apparent aversion toward high school pitchers. I don’t know if anyone has figured out why HS pitchers bust more often than college. If the Cardinals believe makeup/maturity is one reason, I would think the recommendations of those three men could do much to mitigate it (assuming he’s available at 19).
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wow…this report has me salivating…no way he falls to 19 though
Agreed. Maybe Detroit at 9?
I scouted this start. Most of this report is legit, but here are some clarifications in no particular order.
1. Lowest fastball all day was 92, per my stalker gun.
2. Best fastball was 97.
3. Turner gave up a hit on a curve to the third hitter of the game, which is not detailed above. He gave up two hits and one walk on the day.
4. Turner did not throw a single change in this game, as it was not needed.
I’d be glad to answer any questions regarding this start or refer you to a scouting report that I posted elsewhere regarding this start.
Before the years started there were hopes that Turner by drop to #19 for us to have a chance to get him. But since he has dominated pretty much every start this year and his stuff is even better than what most gave him credit for before the season there is ZERO chance he makes it out of the Top 10 IMO. This kid is legit.
Good stuff. Thanks for the contribution.
haven’t seen it mentioned elsewhere, but sickels’ site has a mock draft going on now, in case anybody wants to contribute.
BA mentioned in their chat yesterday that Turner and Co. were rumored to be wanting a Porcello/Beckett deal.
So even if he falls to #19, I dont see any scenario where he is the choice.
The 2009 draft budget will likely mirror the MLB budget, smaller.
“I’d think it safe to say he sits in the mid-90s and touches the high 90s” Speaking with a scout that attended the game I would say that is a misleading statement. There are more accurate scouting reports out there that are not anonymous.
If Turner falls to 19 due to salary demands ala Porcello, I hope the Cards pony up the money after all the grief they took for passing on Porcello. Our system is churning out 4/5 starter types. We desperately need a young top of the rotation guy and should pay the extortion money if the chance comes our way. Yes, it’s a crap shoot but the extension we Carpenter to was a gamble as well. We’ve been very conservative the past few years as an organization so I think the time is ripe for a dice roll.
I enjoyed the scouting report.
Seeing a few backhanded compliments about it I can see why the writer prefered to remain anonymous.
another advantage of the concentration on developing talent. the major league budget was lowered a significant amount. I think the team can see trends and have a better idea now where their revenue may sit for the year, obviously future developments can change that. if you have spent $15 mill less on the major leagues than you originally budgeted, the money for a high end guy may be available now, just as it may for the international signings for top end guys. if the difference between slot and what he would settle for, especially for the home town team, is not exorbitant, an extra million could be had to sign him.