I linked to a Ben Badler chat a while back disagreeing with him about Mortensen’s future in the big leagues. Now I’m calling him to task over Daryl Jones.
Ben (California): Can you compare OF prospects Michael Taylor and Daryl Jones for us?
Ben Badler: They’re both corner outfielders, but Taylor has about half a foot and 50-60 pounds on Jones, so Taylor is probably going to be the better power-hitting going forward. Both guys started to better leverage their lower halves into their swings last year, which is part of the reasons they were able to be successful last year and carry that over into this season. Their stocks are both on the rise.
This is, without question, sloppy and lazy logic. The conclusion may be correct (that Taylor will hit for more power) but the reasoning (that it’s because he’s tall and heavier) is at best incomplete. No where is there the remotest discusison of bat speed. Changes are good that I’ve got 30 pounds on Jones and several inches therefore I’ll be htting for more power too? Of course, the extension of that line of argumentation is beyond ridiculous but it goes to highlight how problematic the answer really is.
PJ Walters gets some press after his 8 strikeout, complete game yesterday. He offers a very level headed quote at the end.
“Right now, I’m here, so I’m going to enjoy it and pitch the best that I can,” Walters said. “If the way I pitch gets me back up there, then great. If they need me, I’ll be more than happy to go back up there. Right now, I’ve got to do well here or that’s not even an option.”
If I could swap PJ for Wellemeyer right now, I would.
There’s really no words for the difficulties that Jose Martinez has faced recently. Cardinal Nation sends its thoughts and prayers.
- Jarrett Hoffpauir was 2-for-4.
- Brett Wallace was 0-for-4 with his first error.
- Evan MacLane continues his tear as a Memphis Redbird. He allowed just 1 unearned run in his 6.2 IP. He allowed 7 hits and struckout 3 against an 1 walk. In 28 innings, McLane has struck out 20 and walked just 2. I don’t know much about him but I’ll have to watch some video soon. As a 26 year old, he doesn’t inspire much hope that he’s “legit” in the long term, but he’s having a nice go of it right now.
- Josh Kinney struck out 3 in 1.1 innings. He stranded 2 baserunners and needed just 21 pitches (13 strikes) to do his work.
- Shane Peterson was 2-for-4.
- Palm Beach collected just 1 walk and 6 hits (1 XBH).
- Scott Gorgen struck out 4 over 6 innings. He allowed just 4 hits and walked 2.
- Eduardo Sanchez turned in another 2 scoreless frames striking out 2. He’s struck out 22 in 23 innings walking just 5. He’s got nearly a 3:2 GO:AO ratio. There’s no real reason I can see for him to not be in Springfield right now.
- Adam Reifer was no bueno today. He allowed all 4 runs retiring just 1 batter.
- Niko Vasquez went 0-for-3 with 3 strikeouts. Taking a glance at the roster, he strikes me as the only player who projects as a future big leaguer. It’s something of a down year for QC prospect wise. The best counter points might be Aaron Luna (DL) and Brett Lilley. Color me uninspired though.
- 4 hits and 1 walk for the River Bandits. They struck out 11 times. Blech.
- Hector Cardenas allowed just 2 hits and 1 run in his 5 innings of work.
- Andres Rosales followed him striking out 6 but getting tagged for 2 runs on 4 hits.
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i already hoped martinez would eventually make it…now i actually want him to be a success in the majors at some point…no one deserves what he has been through
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3979
“Maybe all of this shouldn’t be surprising; the correlation between a batter’s official listed weight and his home run rate, normalized to his park and league, is around .43.”
Wow, there is nothing to say about that story about Martinez’s family. Just wow.
I will certainly be rooting for him even more to make the majors. Good luck kid.
Evan MacLane was good again, he loves pitching at Autozone Park where he’s allowed 1 ER in 22 and 2/3′s IP on a solo HR, and the Memphis staff has lowered its team ERA down to 3.00 at home in 174 IP this year.
Jon Jay extended his hit streak to 5 games, Bryan Anderson is ready to hit the road again where he is hitting .352 around the league as opposed to .150 at Home.
Royce Ring scoreless in his last 11 and a third innings of work and is holding lefties to a .095 BAA this year, Josh Kinney is over his early bout of wildness and shutting hitters down allowing just 3 hits over his 8 and 2/3′s scoreless run.
Bryan Anderson hasn’t successfully thrown out a runner in his last 13 SB attempts, Memphis didn’t respect Brandon Watson’s arm coming into the series but the might now, Watson had 3 outfield assists yesterday and another today.
Azru: You can use the invective hyperbole that the logic is “without question, sloppy and lazy” and “beyond ridiculous” all you want, but there is plenty of literature available by several top-notch baseball researchers presenting evidence to refute your assumptions on the effects that size has on a hitter’s projection. David Gassko did a series for THT showing how size affects power (here’s just one of those links: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/does-size-matter-part-4/); Nate Silver has done research showing the effects of size on future power (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=3979 and run some simulations using PECOTA to show how size has an impact on its projections (http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8663). I think Clay, MGL and I’m sure others have shown are said similar things, but I can’t find any of their work immediately.
The bottom line is you don’t regress a 5-11, 180-pound hitter to the same mean that you do for a 6-6, 250-pound hitter. Other than Marcel, if you can find another forecasting system that doesn’t make that adjustment, please let me know. Height and weight are proxies for strength and future strength potential among a population of professional athletes, and in Taylor’s case, we’re talking about a very strong man with at least 60-65 raw power. I like Jones, but he doesn’t have that type of power. You also have to understand that in an answer written in 20-30 seconds for a chat, I’m not going to be able to address everything on the long list of variables that affect power output (bat speed, swing plane, the ability to generate torque, the ability to leverage a baseball, etc.), but for the moment I’ll just disagree with your critique.
But that wasn’t what he was saying. What he was saying is that it seems to be shallow to say ‘bigger stronger guys hit the ball further’. His point was that bat speed has a lot more to do with power numbers than a player’s height.
If that’s not what he was trying to point out, then I’m wrong and I won’t continue to speak for him.
I’ve read all of the links you’ve posted previously and I’m aware of the statistical relationship in the aggregate. The problem is that, in the specific, it’s not an axiom.
By the logic you offered, David Wells is soon to be inducted into the hall of fame as the new all time HR king. It’s more than just having 50-60 pounds on another guy as you well know.
Here’s another angle: I don’t know much about Taylor (truthfully) but I know plenty about Daryl Jones. When someone who is obviously very informed about the minors in general and most of the prospects of import makes a comparison, I’d hope that I come away knowing more about Taylor. I didn’t. I have no idea if he’s simply fat or will be shortly entering a strongman competition.
I appreciate that it’s a chat and I know you’re put in a situation where there’s some snap decision required. Still, I’m left with a lot of inferring to do if I want to understand the conclusion you reached.
(Also, as a simple point of clarity, the “beyond ridiculous” invective hyperbole was used in reference to my logical extreme and not your comparison. The “lazy and sloppy” adjective, I’ll stand by only because I hope for better from someone that I respect as a prospect evaluator.)
AZ- I have to side with Ben on this one. Of course his analysis is incomplete when it is condensed into a two or three sentence answer. Especially when it is asked on the spot with little time to sift though all the details.
fwiw, Daryl Jones is only about an inch shorter and about the same weight as Hank Aaron.
I don’t think azru said height and weight are irrelevant. And yes, in a chat you won’t often see deep and probing comments. But I think saying your reasoning was “at best incomplete” was quite fair. I doubt that anyone would have complained if you had used height and weight as one consideration. But the way the comment was phrased made it seem that size was the only distinction. It’s pretty clear from azru’s comments that that was his complaint. Zero points for responding to a straw-man argument.
azru is right about this being sloppy and lazy. The post asked him to compare the 2 players and he only compared one aspect of their game. What about their diffrence in speed and their defense ability. Only one aspect of the post was compared when we all know there are so many facets to the game.
Nathan — As Ben states, there’s time and space constraints to a chat. I don’t think we’ll ever get a full scouting report from anyone in a chat nor should we expect to. My only contention was that the comparison he did make (power) lacked sufficient reasoning for me to follow to its conclusion.
I here what you are saying in terms of “likely” impact big leaguers at the QC, but I think that the team has plenty of talent that is worth watching, including:
1. Jon Edwards
2. Ryde Rodriguez
3. Arquimedes Nieto
Sorry, sent to early:
4. David Carpenter
5. Casey Mulligan
6. Josh Wilson
7. Gary Daley
Certainly there is not Daryl Jones, Brett Walace, etc, but that will likely come after the draft….
(This is in re: to the discussion ongoing in #5. I’m not sure if my response will end up in that string, but mods, please move my comment if it does not.)
The implication was that the 50-60 extra pounds on Taylor was the type of mass that helps a player hit for more power. Is there really anyone here who thought the point was that Taylor is fatter, therefore will hit for more power? I could have said Taylor is “bigger and stronger” than Jones, but the point was to quickly quantify a rather substantial difference between the two players that affects our projections of them.
The David Wells hypothetical does not logically stem from my position. Size is one variable that affects present and future power–with ample evidence supporting that claim–but nowhere have I ever said that size is the only variable the affects present or future power. If the crux of the debate is a misunderstanding of my position on the inputs that affect power output, then change the word “so” to “and” in the first sentence of the chat response, and I presume there is no debate, right?
How I read Badler’s point on Taylor/Jones:
All other things being equal, the bigger guy can be expected to hit for more power.
To me, that doesn’t imply that Jones won’t hit for power, or that Taylor is a big leaguer and Jones isn’t. Not knowing very much about Badler at all, I would still presume he’s not intending his comment to read “bigger guys are better” or something like that.
It strikes me that AZ was reading this comment through an ESPN filter, where virtually every comment is kindly called “sloppy and lazy logic”.
No disrespect meant to Badler or our own resident robo-blogger.
Badler’s right on this one – or at the very least he doesn’t deserve the vituperation. The most obvious difference between Jones and Taylor is their size, so when he’s asked to “compare” the players it seems completely reasonable to mention that bigger guys tend to hit for more power. Not the most stunning or insightful analysis, but it’s a chat so what should we expect?
I think a lot of the research on the size-power correlation really overstates the importance of players’ size because researchers haven’t adequately addressed selective sampling, but that’s not Badler’s fault.
+1 on arch support. I was reviewing that chat while it was going on and that’s how I took his comment … Pretty comparable, but Taylor will hit for more power.
And Ben … can we get that 2 minute auto-update out of the BA chat rooms?!?
Speaking of QC, BA has a prospect leaderboard that includes 2 QC players (Lilley and Mulligan) and 1 Springfield player (Samuel). Lilley is 6th in OBP while Mulligan leads in K/9 for relievers and Samuel is 7th.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/?p=4027
Yeah I gotta side with Ben here too. “Axioms” don’t really apply when answering chat questions. He pointed out what he perceived as the biggest difference affecting their relative projections. He’s not writing a thesis requiring a proof. He’s a well-respected Baseball America analyst that should get way more benefit of the doubt.
You could do this ad nauseam. From the same chat:
“Heyward’s a good athlete, runs well for a guy his size, and he’s probably an average to solid-average runner right now. He has a plus arm, too, so he should be an average to above-average defender in right field”
Doesn’t Ben know anything about getting reads on balls? It isn’t axiom that good runners with good arms make good right fielders! This reasoning is at best incomplete. Sloppy and Lazy!
And I’m quite certain you could do this to KG, Law, Callis, and anyone else who takes the time to participate in chats.
Evan MacLane is the real deal. The guy has just had some bad breaks the last two years or he would be in the Bigs by now. I have watched all his games since he joined the team and he has had very good control, along with a good change up, breaking ball, etc. I believe the park and team he was playing on had something to do with his numbers. Don’t be surprised if he makes an apperance later this year in St Louis.
MacLane also has a mid-80′s fastball, so he won’t get the same respect or opportunity in the major leagues that a guy with similar success and can throw harder